June 12th, 2024

Overall 

Diplomacy - US-Ukraine Bilateral agreement

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Air Operations - Lots of missiles, all shot down

Diplomacy - US-Ukraine Bilateral agreement

Weather

Kharkiv

83 and mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms tonight, Thursday and Friday mostly cloudy weather, followed by 3 days of rain. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

83 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny tomorrow, clouding up Thursday afternoon, Friday cloudy, and the weekend and Monday will see thunderstorms.  Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

63 and cloudy, gusting over 20. More thunderstorms tonight, then partly to mostly cloudy for the next 4 days. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Diplomacy - Bilateral Agreement 

National Security Advisor Sullivan confirmed that Ukraine and the US will sign a bilateral security agreement tomorrow when President Biden meets Zelenskyy at the G7 summit in Italy. The document is an agreement and does not face ratification by the Senate or Verkhovna Rada.

Per CNN, under the agreement the US will continue to provide training to Ukraine for the next 10 years, cooperate in weapons development, continue military aid and continue further intelligence sharing. There is no mutual defense commitment but the US promises to consult if there is a future attack by Russia.

"Following that meeting [G7 Summit], the leaders will sign a bilateral security agreement, making clear that our support will last long into the future and pledging continued cooperation, particularly in the defence and security space.”

"By signing this, we would also be sending Russia a signal of our resolve. If Vladimir Putin thinks he can outlast the coalition supporting Ukraine, he’s wrong.”

The G7 summit will be held 13 - 15 June in Fasano, Italy, about 25-30 miles up the Adriatic Coast from Brindisi.

Ground Operations 

North of Kharkiv

The see-saw fight continues north and north-east of Kharkiv. To the north, Ukrainian forces appear to have retaken positions near Lyptsi, while in the area of Vovchansk (the eastern side of the town) heavy fighting is reported and both sides appear to have retaken terrain they lost over the weekend.

Donets River

Russian forces continued to make small but confirmed gains south-east of Kupyansk as they fight to gain full control of the small cluster of towns about 10 miles outside of Kupyansk along the P07 roadway. 

Further south - west of Svatove, Russian forces are again pushing on the Zherebets river and unconfirmed reports claim they made some advances to reach the river itself. Further south, heavy fighting was reported the length of the line of contact.

Bakhmut

Heavy fighting continues near Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed gains or losses. Ukrainian forces continue to insist that the Russians do not hold any part of the town itself; Russian sources continue to release video showing Ukrainian drones striking Russian vehicles inside the town. Fighting also continues both north and south of the town, just east of the canal. Pro Ukrainian sources show Russian forces having reached but not crossed the canal, and at least one fairly reputable source shows Russians holding a small slice of Chaise Yar, about 2 kilometers north to south, and about a half kilometer wide, east to west. 

Fighting also continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Donetsk City

  Russian forces continued pushing west and north-west from Avdiivka, and have been confirmed to hold the north-east edge of Sokil, with unconfirmed reports showing small advances along much of the front west of Avdiivka.  It does appear that Russian forces have pushed north out of Umanske, and a bit further south, are advancing along the edges of the Karlivka reservoir.

Further to the south-west, fighting continues in Heorivka and Krasnohorivka, and further south but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

Velyka Novosilke (VN)

Unconfirmed but credible reports suggest further Russian advances around 

Staromaiorske (which is already in Russian control) and inside Urozhaine.

Orikhiv

Russian attacks continued near Robotyne and to the north-west of that town, as well as north of Verbove, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Dnepr River

Fighting continued near Krynky but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

Air Operations

The UAF reported that Russian forces launched a total 32 missiles and drones into Ukrainian air space yesterday.

The attack consisted of:

4 x Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles

1 x Iskander-M ballistic missile

1 x Kinzhal ballistic missile

24 x Shahed drones

The UAF claimed it shot down:

1 x Kinzhal ballistic missile

4 x Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles

24 x Shahed drones

There was no report on what target was struck by the Iskander ballistic missile.

Separately, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles were launched into Ukrainian air space, and the UAF reported that these had both been shot down.

 

Russian Air Defense forces claimed that they shot down 61 x drones and  9  x ATACMS missiles yesterday, as well as 2 x AASM Hammer French glide bombs (Armament Air Sol Modulaire (Modular Air-to-Ground)), also knows as Hammer.

Today is Russia Day, and there is a general expectation that Ukrainian special services will attempt a “celebratory attack” on a symbolic Russian target tonight.

Aid

The EU Commission will transfer 1.5 billion Euros ($1.6 billion) of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine next month, and 1.9 billion Euros ($2 billion) from the EU Ukraine Facility Fund (the 4 year, 50 billion Euro ($54 billion), the fund the EU created late last year).

In addition to the Patriot transfer announced yesterday, Germany will transfer to Ukraine an IRIS-T short range SAM system, and several Gephard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.

The Argentine government is talking to Paris concerning the possible transfer to Ukraine of 5 x Super Etendard aircraft. The aircraft are currently non-operational.

Norway will provide 240 million Euros ($260 million) to help improve Ukraine’s air defenses.

Diplomacy

Swiss Peace Conference

Anonymous EU sources have reported that the number of nations attending has dropped to 78, from 93, which was itself down from 107.

The conference will be held on June 15th and 16th in Burgenstock, Switzerland.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Orban has consulted with NATO SecGen Stoltenberg and told him that Hungary will not block NATO decisions on support to Ukraine.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jun11 Jun12

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 81.86 82.88

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 77.85 78.92

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 3.13 3.09

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 89.18 89.29

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 6.08 6.27

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 75.67 77.12

Thoughts

The singing of the bilateral agreement is a major political win for Zelenskyy. While it will not mean any change in what the US provides in the near term (through the end of the year), it will lend credence to the Administration’s claims that they will not abandon Ukraine.

At the same time, it doesn’t guarantee Ukraine can win the war. And the agreement is not binding on future Presidential actions. What it really translates into is a morale boost, which, while important, doesn’t necessarily solve policy or strategy problems.

One stray thought: a report from the BBC notes that Russian penal colony troops have taken huge losses in attacks over the past year. This was noted more than a year ago when Wagner Group boss Prigozhin commented that some 9,000 penal colony troops had been casualties in the fight for Bakhmut. The BBC then goes on to say that several Russian penal colonies are closing as they have no prisoners.

A comment I made partially in jest (gallows humor) last year appears to be accurate: the Russians are using the war to get rid of prisoners...

v/r pete