June 10th, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Air Operations - 3 x Russian SAM batteries damaged

Power Grid Damage

Weather

Kharkiv

77 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy Tuesday, then more clouds on Wednesday and thunderstorms for the end of the week. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and clear. Clear tomorrow, followed by three days of partly cloudy weather. Daily lows mid-60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

68 and cloudy. Rain tonight, tomorrow and Wednesday, then several days of partly cloudy weather Daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

North of Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces continued to counter-attack throughout the weekend, both north and north-east of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed gains. Russian forces were also on the attack and reportedly managed to seize several fighting positions in the Ukrainian line, but no more.

Ukrainian forces continued to move into the area and now appear to consider of 8 brigades and several independent battalions. Russian forces remains 5 brigades.

Donets River

Russian forces continue to press the attack and continue to make small but confirmed gains south-east and northeast of Kupyansk; larger Gains were also claimed west of Kreminna but these were not confirmed.

Bakhmut

Russian forces appear to have made gains into Chasiv Yar, taking the industrial area in the north-east corner of the town and have moved up to, and perhaps across the Donets Canal in this area. Tacair strikes continued through the weekend in this area, and some Ukrainian sources suggest the Russians now control half the town on the east side of the canal. In addition ther his a report that Russian forces have crossed the canal north of Chasiv Yar.

Meanwhile, north of Bakhmut, Russian forces made gains south of Siversk, while south of Bakhmut Ukraine forces attacked in Klishchiivka and regained several lost fighting positions.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to grind out gains west and northwest of Avdiivka and are now almost a mile west of Umanske. While other gains were also noted across this area the key here is this push west from the general area of Umanske; the Russians appear to be across a small river - swamp area and are now in there fields north of Umanske and north of the Vovcha River - Reservoir. The Russians are moving just fast enough to keep the Ukrainians from establishing solid defensive positions and using these water features to assist in the defense. Presumably the Russians will now push a bit north of due west from Umanske and push between the small towns of Mezhove on the north and Skuchne on the south, invest those town, and thereby control the reservoir - river network immediately in front of them. 

West and south-west of Donetsk City Russian forces appear to have made some small gains in Krasnohorivkka, and appear to have expanded out of the center of that town and are now pushing into the west side. Further south, Russian forces appear to have pushed west and gained and held portions of the O -0532 roadway (which runs through Marinka to the north and Vuhledar to the south. Sweeping the terrain east of the roadway will allow the Russians to straighten and shorten their lines, and if they can hold that hold will aid in rapid movement across the front.

Velyka Novosilke (VN)

Russian forces remained on the attack south of VN but there were no confirmed gains in the area. It is likely that part of the Russian issue at this point is that there has been some movement of troops and equipment out of the south and to the east so these forces are essentially evenly matched with the defending Ukrainian forces, making advances difficult.

Orikhiv

No changes were confirmed across southern Ukraine but heavy fighting is reported on the northern edge of Robotyne as Ukrainian forces work to stop further Russian movement north with concentrated artillery fire and large scale use of FPV drones.

Dneper River

Fighting continues on the east bank, near Krynky but there are no confirmed changes to terrain held. Several reports have surfaced that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing but these appear to be simply rumors at this point.

Air Operations 

A UAF aircraft, using an as yet unidentified missile, struck a Russian tactical command post in the Belgorod area, which, if correct, is the first UAF manned aircraft strike into Russian territory.

Ukrainian forces also conducted ATACMS strikes on Russian facilities, apparently destroying - per the UAF - elements of 2 x S-300 and 1 x S-400 battery. Further, the Ukrainians claim that not one ATACMS missiles was engaged by the Russians, which would be significant.

In addition, a long range drone strike destroyed a RuAF SU-57 stealth fighter that was left parked on an apron too long… There is additional information, not yet confirmed, that 2 x SU-57 were destroyed.

Politics and the Power Grid

The Kyiv School of Economics estimates that the Ukrainian power grid has suffered $56.2 billion in damage due to Russian strikes. This includes $8.5 billion in losses in power generation, $2.1 billion in power transmission, and $3.3 billion in infrastructure losses. 

In addition, Ukrainian agriculture has taken more than $80 billion in damage.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22  Mar 7  Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Mar8 Apr8 May8 Jun7 Jun10

Brent     94.71      119.50 120.90   75.58     90.95  80.93 83.10 90.13 82.00 80.06 81.81

WTI    92.10      123.80 119.50 71.29     87.77  75.49 79.09 86.13 77.19 75.81 77.92

NG      3.97      4.45    8.41     2.15       2.63      1.95         1.80         1.83         2.21         2.82         2.92

Ruble    85        145.70 58.48    82.59     98.11    91.09 90.78 92.69 91.85 88.77 88.81

Wheat     8.52       12.94   10.71   6.17        6.00    6.02         5.29         5.67         6.43         6.40         6.28

Urals                         56.56     74.34   66.28 72.32 77.31 70.35 67.61 67.61

ESPO                           67.02     80.88    74.85 78.07 85.96 78.78 74.63 75.45

Thoughts

Just an observation: Russian services have performed oddly in this war; the Black Sea Fleet has performed poorly tactically and contributed nothing operationally to the war. The Russian Air Force has been mixed in their performance, some consistent performances form the bombers in launching missiles, but the rest has been more or leas as expected with few stand-out performances; air defense has also had highs and lows, as demonstrated with the damages sustained to 2 x S-300 batteries and 1 x S-400 battery over the weekend.

And yet the Russian army just sort of keeps grinding along, almost oblivious to what is going on around it. It too performs with a barely passing grade,, but it is one that has virtually noting at all to do with almost everything else around it, except perhaps application of tactical air power.