June 13th, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Aid - Multiple programs

Diplomacy - New Sanctions, New Draft for Peace Conference

Weather

Kharkiv

72 and cloudy, gusts to 20. Partly cloudy tomorrow, followed by 4 days of thunderstorms. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

81 and sunny, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy tomorrow, followed by 3 days of thunderstorms. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

70 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Cloudy tomorrow, followed by 4 days of showers and thunderstorms. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv 

Fighting continues around Vovchansk and around Lyptsi; Russian forces had small gains in Vovchansk but other than that, there were no changes in the disposition of forces, though unofficial reporting suggests each side is making significant gains.

Donets River

Fighting continued along the line of contact, and there were, as with the reporting from north of Kharkiv, multiple reports of Russian gains, but there were no confirmed gains or losses on either side.

Bakhmut

The fight for Chasiv Yar continues but there were no confirmed changes in the disposition of forces in the area west of Bakhmut.

North of Bahkmut, Russian forces made confirmed gains just outside of Siversk, to include gains in and around the chalk quarry just outside of Bilohorivka. Unconfirmed reports claim that the Russians made major gains in the quarry, where Ukrainian engineers had dug a network of tunnels and fighting positions inside the chalk walls of the quarry.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to grind out gains north-west and west of Avdiivka. Russian forces had confirmed gains in Nevelske (to the south-west), and significant gains were reported (but not confirmed) elsewhere, to include advancing more than a kilometer east of Novopokrovske (north-west of Avdiivka). Russian sources say that the Ukrainians are withdrawing westward - but this has not been confirmed.

A bit further north Russian forces appear to have taken control of Novooleksandrivka and appear to have pushed through the town and are pressing north-west, along the small river, working their way up the sides of the reservoir just outside the town.

Of note, while there has been speculation that the Russians would at some point turn and head north, the consensus of the Ukrainian General Staff now is that the Russian forces are pressing for Pokrovsk - west of Avdiivka, the major logistics hub for the eastern front.

South-west of Donetsk City Russia forces continued to press into Krasnohorivka, Heorivka and Paraskoviivka, and Russian sources reported gains in each town but these gains could not be confirmed. 

Velyka Novosilke (VN)

Russian force continued to press northward and Russian sources claimed more Russian gains in Urozhaine and around Staromaiorske. Russian sources also report that Russian forces have finished clearing Staromaioriske.

Orikhiv

Russian forces made small gains north-east of Robotyne, Ukrainian forces counter-attacked and regained a portion of what the Russians had just taken, as Russian forces continue to slowly grind northward, tree-line to tree-line.

Dnepr River

Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in multiple skirmishes in the Krynky area but there were no reported changes in terrain held.

Aid

NATO defense ministers are meeting in Brussels where they are expected to approve a draft plan for an annual military assistance budget for Ukraine worth 40 billion Euro ($43 billion), plus additional training support. The plan will then be submitted to the NATO summit where it is expected to be approved by NATO leadership.

The UK will announce a 242 million pound ($309 million) assistance package for humanitarian and energy assistance for Ukraine. 

"We must be decisive and creative in our efforts to support Ukraine and end Putin’s illegal war at this critical moment. The UK remains at the forefront of the international response as we have been from the outset. We must move from 'as long as it takes' to 'whatever it takes' if we are to end this illegal war."

Diplomacy and Politics

It appears that several countries chose to back out of the Swiss Peace Conference after the draft document, which was to be approved at the conference, was modified to toughen the statement against Russia (which is not mentioned by name in the document). 

Attendance fell from 107 to 78, and in addition, several heads of state opted to not attend, sending foreign minsters in their place.

The G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the USA, plus the EU attends as “a non-enumerated member”) have agreed on a $50 billion aid package for Ukraine, with contributions based on the size of the donator’s GDP. The new aid package is to be paid out of the profits from $280 billion of frozen Russian assets.

The Treasury issued new sanctions on Russia and specifically in 90 more companies and individuals, which severely restrict the National Clearing Center, the currency exchange office for the Moscow Exchange, and they also affect the National Settlement Depository (Russia’s primary securities exchange).

In response to the new US sanctions, Moscow announced that it will suspend all trading in dollars and Euros, effective this morning. 

Ukraine will sign a bilateral security agreement with Japan today during the G7 Conference today in Italy. The bilateral agreement with the US will also be signed today.

A draft bill is making its way through the Verkhovna Rada which would allow businesses to pay 20,000 hryvnia ($500) per month to exempt workers from military service.

Air Operations

The UAF claimed it shot down 5 of 5 cruise missiles and 24 of 25 drones on the night of June 11th; however, at least one drone got through and caused a significant fire and associated damage to an industrial facility in Kiev.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jun12 Jun13

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 82.88 82.12

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 78.92 77.97

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 3.09 3.03

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 89.29 87.96

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 6.27 6.17

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 77.12 78.20

Thoughts

The numbers on the ground continue to tell a strange tale. Consider the cross border operation the Russians are conducting north of Kharkiv. While the news reports talk about the “50,000 Russian troops” in the border area, only 4 Russian brigades (brigade sized, two are titled “regiments”) ever moved up to the border, and then crossed it. The Ukrainian response now consists of most of the elements of 8 brigades.

As you’ll recall, the general rule of thumb is a 3 to 1 advantage in the attack is the desired ratio, so 8 brigades would be, all other things being equal, a reasonable defensive force if all 50,000 Russians were attacking.

But they’re not. Which suggests that this attack is really simply to force the Ukrainians to respond and move forces.

Meanwhile, in the general area of Donetsk City and Avdiivka, the Russians continue to grind slowly ahead - and again doing so without overwhelming numbers.

The Ukrainians are having difficulty fully stopping the Russian advance, and the Russians appear quite willing to keep chipping away, even if it takes weeks to take a small town. 

And while the Russians have something on the order of 550,000 to 625,000 (total forces) either in Ukraine or inside near Russia but in direct support of the war, Ukraine has a force of 900,000 to 1 million, presumably most of whom are in eastern Ukraine. 

Said differently, Russia is outnumbered but slowly winning on the ground; Ukraine has numbers and home terrain on their side, plus considerably more economic “health” as a result of its de facto allies - the US and EU, but can’t seem to finally stop the Russian grind.

At its root it would seem that the policy position of not ceding ground is in conflict with a need to find a defendable line that they can hold, and from which they might eventually attack and win. To use the jargon of the defense planners, they have a policy - strategy - tactics mismatch. That will make it very difficult to win.

v/r pete