June 14th, 2024 1775 - US Army 

1777 - Stars and Stripes

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Air Operations - Another attack on the power grid

Aid - More weapons plus G7 Loan

Diplomacy - US - Ukraine Bilateral Agreement Text

Weather

Kharkiv

78 and mostly cloudy. Run starts tonight tapers off Tuesday afternoon. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs near 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

86 and cloudy. Rain starts tonight, tapers off Monday night. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

72 and cloudy. Rain starts tonight, ends Monday night to Tuesday morning. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

 

North of Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces made small but confirmed gains south-east of Hlyboke (due north of Kharkiv), while Russian forces made gains in and around Vovchansk. A Ukrainian army spokesman said that the Russians are digging in, in these areas, that Russian army engineers have arrived and are building defensive positions. 

Donets River

Fighting continues the length of the line of contact, and there are claims that Russian forces made gains south-east of Kupyansk, along the P07 roadway, but these gains have not been confirmed.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues west and south of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side in the last 24 hours. The Ukrainian General Staff characterized the situation around Chasiv Yar as “tense.”

Russian forces have been confirmed to have made gains south of Siversk (north-east of Bakhut) and now pressing on Rozdolivka (about 7 miles south of Siversk). In addition, Russian sources are reporting that the Chalk quarry is now under Russian control.

Donetsk City

Russian forces completed the assault near Novopokrovske and have been confirmed to be in control of the town. Russian forces have already pushed out from the town and are attacking to the west and south-west. Russian forces also continue to advance elsewhere in the general area west of Avdiivka and Donetsk, significantly, pushing north and north-west out of Umanske.

Russian forces remain active south-west of Donetsk city and are clearly trying to reach the O-0532 roadway that runs between Marinka and Vuhledar, straightening their lines and closing one approach to the town of Vuhledar; fighting also continues in Heorivka and Kranohorivka, but there were no confirmed changes in terrain held.

Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhiv

Fighting continues in the general area south of VN and south of Orikhiv, but there were no changes in terrain held.

Dnepr River

Fighting continued in the vicinity of Krynky but there were no changes in terrain held. One blogger characterized the fighting in the area as “the area of duels, artillery duels, drone duels, and FPV duels.”

Air Operations

Russian forces struck power infrastructure on the night of the 13th - morning of the 14th with an attack of:

10 x Kh-101/555 cruise missiles

3 x Islander M ballistic missiles

1 x Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missile

17 x Shahed drones

The UAF claimed it shot down 7 x Kh-101 cruise missiles and 17 drones; the attack appears to have caused a large fire at a large fuel depot, the second depot to be hit in as many nights.

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that, in addition to the below data, on the 13th Russian forces launched 4 x S-300 missiles and conducted 54 x air strikes dropping 73 x FAB 500 bombs on various targets. They also noted that the Russian forces used 613 kamikaze drones. 

Russian forces reported that during the night of 13 - 14 June Russian air defense assets intercepted 87 x Ukrainian drones, and reported several towns had temporarily lost electricity.

As for the 13th, final count: the attack on Thursday included:

20 x FAB 500 glide bombs

19 x Shahed drones and 72 smaller drones.

The UAF reported that is shot down several cruise missiles and a total of 86 drones in the last 8 days, including 28 Lancet loitering, battlefield drones. 

This seems to be far too few drones than normal, (11 per day)…

Diplomacy and Politics

The US - Ukraine bilateral agreement is attached.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Communist China is working diplomatic channels to lobby various countries to support the PRC - Brazil 6 point peace plan rather than the Swiss conference that begins tomorrow. The PRC - Brazil plan calls for meetings between Russian and Ukraine.

Prime Minister Orban of Hungary and NATO have reached an understanding, and Hungary will not block NATO support for Ukraine, and NATO will not force Hungary to participate. Urban put it that Hungary would not hinder NATO efforts in Ukraine, but it would not participate.

"31 out of 32 NATO member states want to defeat the Russians. Hungary’s position is that we consider this a mistake. Even if it means that we stand alone opposed to the other 32 states.”

Orban insists that there should be peace talks now, between Russia and Ukraine.

Putin on a ceasefire:

Ukrainian forces "must be completely withdrawn from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts within the administrative borders…

Ukraine must declare its refusal to join NATO…If these conditions are met, Russia will immediately cease fire.”

"I emphasize that it is from the entire territory of these regions within their administrative borders as they existed at the time of their accession to Ukraine. As soon as Kyiv declares readiness for such a decision and begins the actual withdrawal of troops from these regions and also officially announces the abandonment of plans to join NATO, from our side, immediately, literally at that same moment, the order to cease fire and begin negotiations will be issued. I repeat, we will do this immediately.”

He called this: “…not about a temporary truce but a final resolution.”

Aid

Republic of Korea Defense Minister Shin Won Sik told Bloomberg News that North Korea has shipped more than 10,000 containers, containing as many as 4.8 million artillery shells, to Russia since deliveries first began last autumn. 

Deliveries have also included ballistic missiles (still well less than 100), probably Kn-23 missiles, which are about 10% smaller, but with a substantially greater maximum range.

Germany delivered another package of weapons and systems to Ukraine this past week, to include:

• 20 MARDER infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs)
• 10 LEOPARD 1 A5 tanks
• 1 x IRIS-T SLM air defence system (3 x previously delivered)
• 1 x IRIS-T SLS (1 x previously delivered)
• 3 x HIMARS
• 21,000 x 155mm rounds
• 2 x bridge-laying tanks
• 2 x DACHS engineer vehicles
• 1 x armored recovery vehicle
• 4 x WISENT 1 mine clearing tanks
• Assorted sensors, jammers, spare parts, etc.

A few more details on the G7 plan to use frozen Russian assets to finance a $50 billion loan to Ukraine.

The assets are now worth about $300 billion, and they generate about $3 billion per year in income. There was talk of turning the assets themselves over to Ukraine but that has, on the whole, been rejected.

The assets (and 2022 values) are located predominantly in Europe

• France ($71 billion)
• Japan ($58 billion)
• Germany ($55 billion)
• US ($38 billion)
• UK ($26 billion)
• Austria ($17 billion)
• Canada ($16 billion)

Funds are expected to reach Ukraine in 2025.

Russia has responded by noting that there are still significant assets of US and European companies inside Russia that could be confiscated.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jun13 Jun14

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 82.12 82.86

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 77.97 78.60

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 3.03 2.97

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 87.96 89.30

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 6.17 6.20

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 78.20 77.95

The Hryvnia fell to 41.1 to the dollar yesterday, which represents a 12% drop in value since it was floated last October.

Thoughts

The bilateral agreement is fairly complete, and from my first read of it, a fairly straightforward agreement. The key points I noticed are:

- Article IV concludes with the statement: “The US affirms that Ukraine’s future is in NATO.”

- A clear statement that Russia must be made to pay for damages.

- The agreement does not “give rise to rights or obligations under domestic or international law.”

The last point means simply that it is a promise made by the President, Congress has no say, and the agreement has no force of law. The next President (or even this President) can simply ignore it, if he chooses.

The line about NATO is interesting as that is one point that both Orban of Hungary and Fico of the Czech Republic have said they don’t support; NATO membership requires unanimous approval.

A NATO official, speaking anonymously, is reporting that Russian forces in the incursion north of Kharkiv have been suffering 1,000 killed per day on average; he stressed that this was the number dead.

1,000 KIA per day, would mean at least 2,000 WIA, and probably 3,000. Even if WIA and KIA match, 1,000 per each, this would mean almost a brigade per day — but there was no major force movement in and out of the area. Russian forces crossed the border in the first week of May - 35 days ago. Even at 500 per day that would work out to 17,500 KIA, and certainly more than 25,000 WIA per day, or 42,500 total casualties. (At 1,000 KIA per day the total would be well past 50,000.)

Yet, there were only 51,000 Russian troops in the entire area from Sumy down to Kharkiv, and only 4 Russian brigades (or regiments - which in this case have similar manning totals) have been engaged in this thrust, about 12,000 troops, they have not rotated any units out, the original units are still fighting and holding ground, against a larger Ukrainian force. 

This is being stated for some reason, but what it is, isn’t clear. One possibility is that, in the past, claims of excessive Russian combat losses have come out when the Ukrainian army has suffered a serious loss, or is about to withdraw from some point, and this reporting is used to deflect any criticism in the event the loss is leaked to the press, or the withdrawal is poorly received.

v/r pete