June 28th, 2024

1914 - Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie (Archduke Franz Ferdinand Carl Ludwig Joseph Maria of Austria) 

Overall 

Ground Operations - Marginal Russian gains continue

Air Operations - F-16s - Manage expectations

Politics and Diplomacy

Weather

Kharkiv

83 and partly cloudy, gusts near 20. Sunny for the next 4 days, lows in the upper 60s, highs near 90. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

84 and mostly cloudy, gusts near 20. Partly cloudy tomorrow, then mostly sunny for several days, lows in the mid 60s, highs near 90. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

90 and sunny. Sunny for the next 4 days, lows in the 60s, highs in the upper 80s to 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported near Lyptsi and Hlyboke (north of Kharkiv) and in Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv), but there were no confirmed charges to the line. Of note, Ukrainian commanders continue to report that Russian engineers are digging defensive positions across the area.

Russian special operations personnel raided across the border near Solnytskyi Kozachok, about 25 miles north-west of Kharkiv, and about 20 miles west of the Russian positions inside Ukraine, due north of Kharkiv. The unit withdrew after a short fire-fight with Ukrainian border guard troops.

Donets River

Fighting continues along the line of contact, amidst unconfirmed claims of Russian gains north-east of Kupyansk, and Ukrainian gains east of Terny.

Bakhmut

Russian forces made confirmed gains north of Bakhmut in the area of Siversk and Bilohorivka and may control the bulk of the latter town.

Fighting continues in the eastern-most sections of Chasiv Yar; it appears that the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back from the section of the Donets canal that runs through this section of the town. At the same time, Russian forces have begun to use thermobaric rounds in the artillery (rocket) fire into Chasiv Yar.

As noted earlier, in many of these towns the Ukrainians have taken medium sized apartment buildings (5- 7 floors) and reinforced them, making them essentially into 50 foot tall pillboxes and observation posts. These positions have proven to be very tough to defeat (Vuhledar is a particular case in point), but use of a thermobaric round (also known as a fuel-air explosive (FAE)) may well be able to clear one of these vertical bunkers without having to bring it down.

Further south of Bakhmut, in the general area west of Horlivka, Russian forces claim to have entered into the south side of Niu York and are pressing on  the east edge of Torestsk, but these gains have not been confirmed. These operations are likely meant to “straighten the line” of terrain held by Russia, preventing the development of a salient between Bakhmut and Donetsk City, but Niu York has extensive defensive positions; this will be a long fight.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continued to grind out small gains west of Avdiivka, with gains noted around Karlivka and north of the Karlivka reservoir. Specific reference is made to hard fighting north of the reservoir and the two water features (reservoir and the Vovcha River) represent an opportunity to bottle up one part of the Russian push westward.

Other fighting and marginal Russian gains were noted north and north-west of Avdiivka.

South-west of Donetsk City fighting continues in Kostyantnivka, Krasnohorivka and Heorhivka, as well as in the general Vuhledar area; Russian forces appear to have made small gains in both Konstyantnivka and Krasnohorivka.

Velyka Novosilke (VN)

Fighting was reported north of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine, but there were no changes in positions held by either side.

Orikhiv

Fighting continues north and north-east of Robotyne, but there were no changes noted in positions held by either side.

Dnepr River

Fighting was reported around Krynky, and near the ruins of the Antonovsky bridge, but there were no confirmed changes in terrain held.

Air Operations

Russian forces launched 4 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, 1 x Kinzhal ballistic missile, and 23 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space yesterday, with reportedly many of these assets targeting Ukrainian air fields (See my thoughts, below). The UAF claimed it shot down all but the Kinzhal missile.

This morning the Russians launched at least 1 x Iskander M ballistic missile, with cluster warhead, into the Odessa area; the UAF claimed the cluster munitions landed in a field, started small fire but were otherwise ineffective.

MGEN Jan Dam, Chief of Staff of the Danish Air Force, commenting on F-16s for Ukraine:

"There are very high expectations for these fighter planes. And we probably have to be more realistic there. The F-16s will certainly have an impact, but it won't be a game changer. Neither this month nor the coming months.”

"My recommendation to the Ukrainians is to become really good at using these planes before they carry out any risky missions. And I am talking to the head of the Ukrainian Air Force about that.”

“…they will still need lots of training in Ukraine. And it can take months and years before they create a decisive operational effect.”

"Right now they are practicing night flying, even though we are in the middle of the shortest nights of the year. But we simply have to do that in order to get through the program.”

MGEN Dam noted that it normally requires 3 - 4 years in the aircraft to become a competent F-16 pilot.

Maritime Operations 

File under Blinding Flash of the Obvious: President Putin met with his Defense Ministry to discuss shipbuilding and other naval issues. Putin pointed out the need to equip Russian navy ships with defense systems - hard and soft kill - that can defend against drones - UAV, USV, UUV, as well as the need to improve defenses at naval bases. 

Of note, the Russian navy will reportedly take delivery of 40 ships and patrol boats this year.

Politics and Diplomacy 

Despite earlier reports, there is no evidence that North Korean engineers are now or have been operating in western Russia or in Ukraine in support of Russian combat operations.

The director of the Ivano-Frankivsk administration (in western Ukraine), Svitlana Onyshchuk, commented yesterday that the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP) cannot be repaired and is a total loss.

"More than 12 attacks were directed at our energy facility, and accordingly, all services also worked every time. But for a certain period of time, we understand that the Burshtyn TPP cannot be restored. It is extremely badly destroyed.” 

The TPP was struck repeatedly over the winter, the last strike being in March.

The Czech Republic is looking for more donors to aid in their plan to purchase 155MM howitzer rounds for Ukraine. 18 countries are now signed up, with a goal to raise enough money to send 1 million rounds to Ukraine; the first shipment reached Ukraine this week.

Two years ago 155MM shells cost about $1100 apiece. Latest prices are in the neighborhood of $3,500 apiece, making a purchase of 1 million rounds a $3.5 billion effort.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jun27 Jun28

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 85.60 86.71

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 81.22 82.11

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.77 2.75

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 85.92 85.27

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.59 5.80

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 79.90 80.25

Thoughts

The Russian strike on air bases in central and western Ukraine received a good deal of coverage. How many rounds actually hit, and damage done, is still not clear. But targeting air bases is hard. Obviously, hitting the aircraft itself is desired but aircraft are easily moved. Cratered runways can usually (not always) be repaired quickly. Hitting tool sheds, parts warehouses, engine test facilities, etc., can yield more satisfying results, as also with a strike on ammo and fuel bunkers, or an attack on barracks for flight crew and maintenance personnel.

This leads to the obvious solution of performing maintenance in Poland or somewhere else in Eastern Europe. Might they then be attacked there? Sure. The USAF flew aircraft out of Thailand, over Vietnam, for 15 years and there were a number of attacks by the North Vietnamese, mainly attempts to sabotage aircraft. Today, drones would probably be more effective. But, if Ukraine does place aircraft in Poland, we should expect some sort of response by the Russians.

As for the F-16s (there are a few folks on my distro who know far more about tactical aviation than I ever will - I apologize ahead of time!)

So, two thoughts from two friends, one an F-15 guy, Red Flag instructor, etc. “Up to the 3rd generation of jet aircraft you could, if you were a good pilot, and had a good deal of experience, catch up to the airplane. As the 3rd generation (early F-15s, F-14s, etc.) aircraft became more sophisticated you reached a situation where the airplane was sophisticated enough that you could find yourself trying to catch up and never quite do so. By the time you got to the 4th generation aircraft, such as later models F-16s (or F-16s with the latest software), F-18s, etc., even a very experienced pilot will find himself trying to figure out what the airplane is doing if he isn’t studying the airplane and the mission all the time. It is very easy to be behind the airplane all the time.”

The second thought is from another friend, another phenomenally capable pilot - F-14 guy, who commented one day to a group of junior officers: “You now have 500 hours in the airplane, you think you know the airplane; you are now entering the most dangerous period of your flying career because you aren't as good as you think you are.”

Both these thoughts occurred to me as I read an account of Ukrainian pilots in training to fly the F-16, alongside MGEN Dam’s remarks. Besides the fact that all the training is in English, they are still not quite ready. Basic flight in the airplane will take relatively few hours. But learning how to use the airplane effectively will take many hours and a good deal of effort. Getting pilots capable of using the full capabilities of an aircraft means hundreds of flight hours, plus simulator time, plus study. While the public perception is that new aircraft are so sophisticated that anyone can fly them, the reverse is true: they are so sophisticated that to properly employ the aircraft, its systems and the associated weapons is a task that requires constant study and effort on the ground and detailed preparation before every flight.

And that does not account for the threat.

Early in WWII flight training for a bomber pilot was 10 weeks and 75 hours each for primary, basic, and advanced - so, 30 weeks and 225 flight hours if there were no mistakes - and there were always mistakes. Then pilots were sent to learn how to drop bombs. A year after starting, they were sent overseas to become co-pilots in a flight crew and integrate into the squadron, with more training to come. This was all lengthened in 1944 by 50% when we could afford it. And while the B-17 was a complicated aircraft for its time, it is substantially less sophisticated than a modern fighter aircraft. 

v/r pete