June 22nd, 2026

Politics - Zelenskyy call on Belarus to remove repeaters

- Threatens action

- EU pledges support 

Combat ops - Marginal gains on the ground

- Drone wars escalate 

Weather

Kharkiv

82 and rain showers, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

84 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy all week showers on Wednesday. Daily lows in the low 60, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

80 and rain showers, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy through Thursday, then sunny. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Yesterday President Zelenskyy called on Belarus to remove signal repeaters that Russian forces are using to to control long range strikes into Ukraine

"Ukraine has repeatedly signaled that if Russia drags Belarus into this war as well, it could lead to extremely dangerous consequences. In particular, we have recorded that along our border, on Belarusian territory, special equipment has been installed that works for Russia – for the Russians – and helps the Russians carry out drone strikes against us, against our territory.”

“We in Ukraine know of four such signal relay stations in Belarus – specifically in the Gomel and Brest regions. It is precisely this kind of equipment that made possible the strikes on the Zhytomyr, Rivne and Volyn regions – on our energy infrastructure, on our railways, on ordinary cities and villages. Belarus has time to take down this equipment.”

“We also know about every plant in Belarus that is working for Russia and serving this war. Any enterprise supplying components for Russian weapons – for armoured vehicles, for missile systems – as well as any facility supplying Russia with fuel for this war, is all part of drawing Belarus into the war. Ukraine does not want that, and we have already warned the de facto leadership of Belarus, which influences the relevant developments.”

"Unfortunately, this helps Russia adapt to pressure and does not bring peace closer. It should be the other way around: peace should be getting closer, and Belarus should act in line with what its de facto leadership is saying through unofficial channels, so that we can actually see in Ukraine that Belarus is truly against it, against this war. This war must be brought to an end. We need peace.”

"I thank all the partners who are helping us, Ukraine. Right now, the pressure is still not enough. And over this week, we've reached new agreements with our partners, including the United States, to make sure that pressure is applied – and that it's strong enough. The United States and all our partners in Europe, in the G7, assess the situation the same way and are ready to keep supporting Ukraine.”

Of note, on the 19th Zelenskyy appeared to give a deadline, stating that Belarus had a week to remove the signal repeaters or “We would do it ourselves.”

Zelensky also commented on the long-range strikes:

“Yesterday we responded by striking their oil refinery in the Tyumen region. If we're speaking directly, the distance was about 2,070 kilometers. Our new drones successfully hit their target. Their actual flight route was around 2,500 kilometers. They will be able to fly 3,000 kilometers and beyond. These are new drones—good drones. They will reach distances of more than 3,000 kilometers because we understand where all their military factories are located, where their oil bases are, where their gas storage facilities are, and so on. We need tools that can reach farther distances. And we are creating them.”

In Crimea there are further restrictions on gasoline and diesel sales and there have been several power outages in the last 4 days.

The official price of 92 Octane sat at 92 rubles per liter last week, or $4.72 per gallon, up from 82 per liter ($425 / gallon) at the beginning of the month. On the black market, reporting (which needs to the taken with salt) suggests the black market price has come down since the first week of June, from over 200 rubles per liter ($10.37 per gallon) to about 160 per liter ($8.30).

Ground Operations

Fighting was reported along most of the front line, but there is little change anywhere. 

But it isn’t correct to say there is no change. In the terrain due north of Hulyaipole about 7 - 8 miles, Ukrainian forces continue to push into Russian held terrain and there are minor but real Ukrainian gains in this area. Ukrainian forces also appeared to fully control Novodanylivka  as of Friday - the town due south of Orikhiv, and had pushed out the south side of that town, but by Sunday Russian forces had pushed back into the town. At the same time, Ukrainian forces had pushed back into Stepnohirsk, further to the west.

It’s important to note that Ukrainian forces have not yet reached, never mind breached, the permanent Russian defensive lines, but they are picking at the terrain held by the Russians.

At the same time, Russian forces have gained small pieces of ground north-east of Slovyansk - east of Lyman, into the town if Zatkitne, and in several smaller points along the line here. Likewise, there are small Russian gains near Kostiantinivka, north of Pokrovsk and west of Hulyaipole. Meanwhile, the two forces continue to trade small piece of terrain, with Russian forces realign terrain 

Of note on the ground is that Russian recon probes continue nearly everywhere, and infiltrations into Kostiantinivka and into Lyman appear to be gradually consolidating one or two positions at a time and very slowly taking control of terrain. The process is like watching concrete set, but the Russians keep doing it and Ukrainian forces haven’t found an assured way to stop them.  As it now stands, Russian forces appear to have consolidated  all of Kostiantinivka south-east of the T0504 / H20 roadway, as well as a perhaps a quarter of the city north-west of the roadway. While there is no hard proof as the numbers are never released, this may be another indicator that the Ukrainian army is simply short of infantry. Drones are nice but there is only so much that can be done without infantry to back it up.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian forces struck a ferry in the Kerch Strait, and oil tanks in Kerch port; partial blackouts reported in Crimea. Ukrainian drones were also reported in the Moscow area early on the 22nd, and at least one reportedly struck a “space communications center” in Dubna (Moscow area); and while there is a significant fire, the damage to the comms facility has not been confirmed. A blackout was reported in parts of Crimea earlier today.

Ukrainian drones also struck an electronics production facility in Voronezh, which includes the manufacturing of circuitry for the Iskander ballistic missile. 

During the night of June 21st - Jun 22nd Russian forces claimed to have shot down 84 drones in the Moscow area. As usual, Russian air defense assets did not provide a comment on the total number of drones. 

Ukrainian drone strikes across Russia struck an oil terminal in Krasnodar, an oil refinery fuel storage tanks in Moscow, and an oil facility in Tyumen, some 1500 miles east of Ukraine.

During the night of June 21st-June 22nd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 88 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 79  drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson,  Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; Russians strike bridge in Zaporizhzhia city.

There was at least 1 civilian killed and 11 wounded in these attacks..

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of June 20th-June 21st Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles and 105 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 96  drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Khmelnitsky, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; Russians struck a bridge in Zaporizhzhia city.

There was at least 1 civilian killed and 3 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns. 

Drones struck Moscow on the 19th.

During the night of June 19th-June 20th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 99 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 92  drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; Russians strike bridge in Zaporizhzhia city and Kherson

There were at least 5 civilians killed and 19 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns. 

During the night of June 18th-June 19th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 90 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 79  drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 4 civilians killed and 25 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun19 Jun22

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 79.81 79.18

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 76.02 75.31

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.22 3.31

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.13 6.08

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 73.33 73.84

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.86 44.97

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 61.19 66.58

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 77.55 78.28

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 75.62 73.43

Thoughts

I think the reason for the recent exaggerated reporting is now clear. That it has been exaggerated is clear; as an example, one well known analyst, a retired US Army general, has, in the last several weeks, announced that three separate Russian fronts have “collapsed,” and that these collapses represent “tactical and operational” crises from which there is no easy recovery by the Russians. Meanwhile, the lines on the maps all remain pretty much the same, with some small Ukrainian gains about 15 miles north of Hulyaipole and small (but disconcerting (see above)) Russian gains around in Kostiantinivka and north-east of Slovyansk.

But, Ukraine has secured more commitments from the EU, and a series of statements that bolster their position politically. As EU Council President Costa said on Friday:“The European Union is not—and we do not intend to be—mediators. We have been with Ukraine through the war and we will be with Ukraine after the war.”

The EU has made it clear that it is not interested in mediating the war, but rather wants to keep supporting Ukraine and continuing the fight (one might cynically add, as long as it’s Ukrainian and Russian dead on the battlefield, not EU soldiers).

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor went so far as to assert that “Ukraine is winning the war,” and MSN ran a headline that “Its Official: Ukraine Is Winning the War Against Russia and Putin Looks Powerless to Stop It.”

What all this did manage to do is get a solid statement of support out of the G7 and the EU. All in all, it was a well executed InfoWar effort by Kyiv.

Meanwhile, the drone war continues to expand. 

Ukrainian forces have the edge here in the intermediate range drones - of which they appear to be launching several hundred per day, striking Russian ground lines of communication (GLOC) and making resupply of front units and rotation of troops, very difficult. The key to the Ukrainian edge is the command and control that Starlink provides, hence the concern about Russian repeaters in Belarus that could compensate for loss of Starlink.

Ukrainian forces are striking oil storage tanks on both Crimea itself and those that supply Crimea on the other side of the Kerch Strait, various GLOCs into and across Crimea, and have impacted the supply of everything into Crimea. Gasoline and certain essentials are being rationed and black market prices reflect that. 

It is of note that in the past week or so there has been a gradual rise in the number of Russian strikes on Ukrainian bridges and GLOCs behind the lines, striking with glide bombs several bridges in the Zaporizhzhia area. This is of concern as many of the Ukrainian strikes on bridges are with smaller cruise missiles which will often damage the bridge but not cause major damage. On the other hand, the FAB 500 (1100lbs) and the FAB 1000 (2200lbs) will cause substantial damage to a bridge and may well drop a span. 

Since day one it has struck me as odd that the Russians didn’t go after the bridges over the Dnepr River as well as several other major bridges further west (there are several large railroad bridges of note). All told there are currently 38 bridges across the Dnepr (in Ukraine): 9 Rail (1 rail and road), 8 pedestrian, and 22 road. There also bridges across the Bug (6) and Dniester (5) rivers, and several other key bridges across the country; all told perhaps 50 bridges connect the country - east to west. This not a great many bridges and it would seem the logical next escalation for the Russians.

v/r pete