June 9th, 2026

Politics - Joint Statement: 5 Conditions 

- US Calls for Immediate Ceasefire  

Combat Ops - Strikes continue 

- Southern front remains

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and partly cloudy. Sunny tomorrow, thunderstorms possible daily from Thursday through next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds westerly, 5kts.

Melitopol

79 and mostly cloudy, scattered thunderstorms.  Rain showers and thunderstorms daily through Saturday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

67 and mostly cloudy. Showers tomorrow and warmer. Sunny Thursday, thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the low 80. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

France’s President Macron, and Germany’s Chancellor Merz, UK PM Starmer, together with President Zelenskyy, issued a joint statement calling for an immediate ceasefire. 

The statement stated 5 conditions:

1) Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire

2) The current front line would serve as the basis for negotiations, but added that international borders cannot be changed by force

3) Ukraine must receive binding security guarantees

4) Frozen Russian assets to remain frozen until Moscow ends its aggression and provides compensation to Ukraine for damages.

5) European security interests must be protected by the agreement

The Kremlin rejected the proposal.

Ambassador Negrea (US Ambassador to the Economic and Social Council) at yesterday’s meeting of the UN Security Council, called for:

“Both sides [Ukraine and Russia] to immediately agree to a comprehensive ceasefire leading to a negotiated end to the war… the cycle of retaliation, escalation, violence, and death must stop.”

He called on all nations to end support to Moscow, and noted that “there is no military solution to this war… As Secretary Rubio made plain last week, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a strategic disaster. Its oil refineries are ablaze, and Russia is now losing 5,000 people per month. Moscow cannot achieve its goals on the battlefield. Escalation will not change that and only risks making the disaster worse. This war must end now. Enough is enough.”

On Friday, June 5th, Russian and Ukraine exchanged 185 POWs, the UAE acting as mediator.

Bulgarian Defense Minster Stoyanov announced new policies for Bulgaria, in the wake of the election of Prime Minister Radev (who took office May 8th of this year). This morning Stoyanov stated at a press conference:

"It is time to sit at the negotiating table, it is time to seek a just peace, which will be determined by both sides.”

Stoyanov went on to comment that the war In Ukraine had become a positional war and additional weapons will only mean additional loss of life without changing the battlefield. 

Over the last 4 years Bulgaria provide 13 military aid packages to Ukraine.

President Zelensky held a conversation with Ambassador Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, but no details have been released.

Ground Operations

A Ukrainian source is reporting that Russian forces are preparing to withdraw from the outer portion (western most end) of the Kinburn Spit, the long, thin strand that forms the south edge of the Dnepr estuary. Whether there is any truth to this really lies in your definition of the Kinburn Spit. The last six miles of the Spit is flat, mostly covered in coarse sand and grass and. It is about a kilometer wide at its base, but very quickly tapers to just a few hundred yards wide and eventually to a point. The last several miles of spit is less than 100 yards wide at its widest point, and nearly awash at high tide in a calm sea, making it more or less of no value from a military perspective. It also isn't clear how many troops the Russian had on the outer reaches of the Spit. 

Operations continue as before; Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct recon probes, infiltrate when possible, and strike troop elements when found. Drone strikes on the front line and in the enemy rear continue. Press releases from higher headquarters continue to report high casualty counts on the other side, and routinely run a bit more than 2 times the real casualties (when real numbers can be found).The battlefield - drone strike campaigns have degraded logistics to both Russian and Ukrainian front line troop elements. It is difficult to give a fair evaluation of the effects as there is very little reporting on Ukrainian troop movements, casualties or material losses except what comes from the Kremlin. But anecdotal reports from Ukrainian units support the assessment that the Ukrainian troops are having just as much difficulty moving forward to the front line, or moving rearward as are the Russians and in some cases, it is more difficult on the Ukrainian side. It is of note that Russian forces are regularly rotating troops on and off the front line, while Ukrainian troops appear to be having some trouble with troop rotations in several areas of the line.

In the Sumy and Kkarkiv areas there were no confirmed changes in the line. In the Kupyansk area, east of the Oskil River, Ukrainian forces and imagery confirmed Russian forces continue to infiltrate into the city of Kupyansk, but there have been no changes in the lines in this area. There were some minor ground gains by Russian forces in the area in the last week of May, but no changes since.

There are reports of hard fighting east and north-east of Slovyansk, in the Lyman area and due east and just south-east of Slovyansk, in the last week, with Ukrainian forces gaining ground north-east and east of Lyman, while Russian forces also gained ground east of Lyman, and gained ground due east and south-east of Slovyansk. The fight here appears to be focusing on some high ground in the Lyman area which would look down on Slovyansk, as well as Russian forces pushing into the heavily wooded areas south-east of Slovyansk. 

There is mixed reporting around Kostiantinivka, with some sources reporting Russian gains. But other sources suggest that the gains east and south of that city really are better understood as more of the confused interweaving of Russian and Ukrainian forces in the familiar “checkerboards” that appear in the cities and towns as they are invested.

There is said to be a large number of engagements in the area north-west and north of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

There were no confirmed changes in the lines across southern Ukraine, and the front does not appear to have collapsed at this time.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian drones struck an oil terminal near Novorossiysk and at an oil production facility in Krasny Yar, near Volgograd.

During the night of June 8th-June 9th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 166 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 146 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 10 civilian killed and 39 wounded in strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of June 7th-June 8th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 155 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 124 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; 30,000 houses in Dnipropetrovsk were without power for the night.

There were at least 4 civilian killed and 32 wounded in strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 10 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun9

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 92.52

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 89.23

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.18

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 5.90

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 71.76

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.99

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 87.75

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 95.51

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 86.44

Thoughts

Much Western press and pundit reporting continues to reflect Ukrainian gains and that an inflection point was reached in the last month or two but it is hard to prove on the ground. The lines remain much as before. Much is made of Ukraine regaining terrain this year (some 200 square miles), but much of that took place in February and there have been only marginal gains by either side since. 

Strikes continue on Russia’s oil industry but, as Meduza pointed out just over a week ago, the Russian oil industry for the most part compensated for these strikes by late last year. The burning oil tanks make for great theater, and the rationing of gasoline in Crimea is a “win” for Ukraine, but neither is crippling.

At the same time, Russia continues to strike at the Ukrainian power grid and fragility of the system suggests a hard winter ahead for the Ukrainian population.

v/r pete