June 30th, 2026 Next Summery Thursday, July 2nd

Politics - Poland: No MiG-29s

- von der Leyen on 3.9 Billion Euros

- Ukrainian Oligarch attacked 

Combat Ops - No change on ground

- Strikes continue  

Weather

Kharkiv

82 and partly cloudy. Sunny or mostly sunny through Friday, thunderstorms on Saturday. Daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

91 and sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny through Friday afternoon. Daily lows in the high 60s, daily highs in the low 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

86 and mostly sunny, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny through Thursday, thunderstorms on Friday and the weekend.  Daily lows  through Friday in the upper 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, then cooler, next week highs around 70, lows in the low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

Poland’s Deputy PM and MinDef Kosiniak-Kamysz will not transfer MiG-29s to Ukraine.

“I proposed a very cooperative approach: MiGs in exchange for drones. The Ukrainians initially accepted this, but did not follow through, so there are no MiGs for Ukraine because Poland has neither drones nor the capabilities to use them.”

“This means they have the capacity to provide military equipment—which is sometimes symbolic, but it’s very important that they can share their know-how and, to some extent, their technologies. They really know their stuff in this area. And they agreed to this, but then backed out of these agreements.”

President of the EU Commission von der Leyen commented on providing 3.9 billion Euros ($4.5 billion) to Ukraine:  

Ukraine's ingenuity lies at the heart of its success in resisting Russia's full-scale invasion. It is this ingenuity that we want to support. Today, we are providing a first €3.9 billion for advanced drone technology to strengthen Ukraine's defence.

A Ukrainian oligarch, his wife and sone were seriously wounded in a bomb attack at their home in Monaco yesterday. Vadim Yermolaiev and his wife Anna, and her son David were injured when a “bomb in a backpack,” packed with nuts and bolts, blew up in the foyer of their apartment. Anna was apparently the most severely wounded and at least one leg has been amputated.

A man was seen on video but no suspect has been arrested yet.

The Ukrainian government immediately responded to the attack, noting Ukrainian citizens were attacked in Monaco.

At the same time, Vadim Yermolaiev made his fortune in several businesses that have been sanctioned by the Ukrainian government, to include Versobank in Estonia that had it’s license suspended in 2018 by the EU Central Bank for 'systematic violation of anti-money laundering legislation,’ producing a wine on Crimea for sale in Russia, and his son was arrested in Cyprus in 2025 for running a fraudulent call center with his father. 

In December 2023 President Zelensky authorised sanctions against Yermolaiev for still doing business with Russia.

Yermolaiev renounced his Ukrainian citizenship in 2019 in favor of Cyprian citizenship. He has been under investigation by Ukrainska Pravda’s investigation of wealthy Ukrainians who settled on the Riviera after the war started.

Ground Operations

President Putin has jumped into the propaganda game with both feet and has come out with a series of statements as to where the Russian forces are on the ground in Ukraine; his remarks push the Russian controlled territory further west but is no more accurate than the remarks made over the past several weeks about the collapse of the Russian front in the south, the north and the center. Both sides are making ever more expansive claims but there continues to be very little change in the lines.

Since the beginning of the year Ukrainian forces made gains in the south (north of Hulyaipole) during February and March and recovered perhaps 100 square miles in that area, and perhaps 15 - 20 square miles total along the Dnepr (north of Kamyanske) and in the north-east (around Kupyansk). Russian forces have slowly pressed forward east and north-east of Slovyansk (but not as far as Putin claims) and continue to expand the “checkerboard” in Kostiantinivka, north of Pokrovsk, and west of Hulyaipole. But progress is very slow as both sides are now striving mightily to probe and move without being seen by the daily cloud of FPV drones.

Fighting continued along the entire line, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line and in those cases where there are possible changes, the changes remain marginal.

Infiltration efforts by Russian forces continue, particularly in the area from just north of Slovyansk (into Lyman), and southward, along the line, past Pokrovks, with an emphasis on probing into Kostiantinivka. But, as noted, there were no confirmed changes in the line. 

Ukrainian elements north-west of Pokrovsk report increases in Russian activity in this area, though there are no numbers with which to quantify the statement. The increased activity also reportedly includes more drone and glide bomb strikes in the area but again this is not quantified.

Both sides continue to report strikes on bridges in the enemy rear.

It’s worth noting again that Russian forces are using FAB 500 and larger glide bombs to strike bridges, considerably more destructive than the drones used elsewhere. In one case yesterday a bridge over the Donets River was struck with a FAB 1500, a 3300lb bomb, which will drop a span of just about any bridge on the planet.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

During the Night of June 29th-June 30th and during the morning of June 30th, multiple drones were reported over Moscow, there were reports of several explosions, and Russian air defense claimed it shot down 10 drones over Moscow.

The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that Ukrainian forces struck a railway bridge in Crimea and a road bridge just north-west of Berdiansk.

Ukrainian forces continued strikes on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOC), and parts of occupied Kherson and Crimea continue to suffer power outages.

While many of the strikes are “plinking,” striking individual vehicles as they move along the road networks (something the Russians do as well), Ukrainian forces appear to be more proficient at striking bridges, and imagery on the 27th confirmed a partially collapsed span on the M-14 roadway about 18 miles east of Melitopol, from a strike on the 26th, where the road crosses a small stream (the Korsak River).

Russian Forces

During the night of June 28th-June 29th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least I x missile (type not specified) and 154 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 138 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Sumy, and  Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 1 civilian killed and 27 wounded as result of these strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.

During the night of June 28th-June 29th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 ballistic missile and 108 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 82 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; a ballistic missile struck Dnipro city.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

There were at least 7 civilian killed and 46 wounded as result of these strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun29 Jun30

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 72.95 72.93

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 70.38 70.82

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.24 3.17

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 5.85 5.78

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 77.35 78.10

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.85 44.78

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.40 58.43

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 70.54 70.54

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 69.37 69.79

Price of gasoline in Crimea this morning is 189 rubles per liter, or $9.67 per gallon for 95 octane. Last week 92 Octane (95 octane wasn’t available) was selling at 92 rubles per liter, up from 82 rubles per liter as of the start of the month, so the price has doubled in Crimea in a week. At the same time, at least one report suggested that, as of mid morning (EDT), at that price, gasoline was available. How long that continues, remains to be seen.

Putin claimed yesterday that Russian stocks currently stand at 1.7 million tons (12 million barrels), down just 4% from this time last year.

That may in fact be true, but fires at the right pumping facilities and transfer stations can still cause regional shortages as gasoline and diesel are having trouble moving.

Thoughts

Concerning the bombing of the Russian oligarch in Monaco, the Ukrainian embassy is said to be assisting the police. 

If one were cynical, one might suggest that this was an attack by a Ukraine special services unit on a sanctioned individual, and the Ukrainian foreign office support is to see to it that the police find the “right answer.”

The Propaganda - Info War effort continues in full vigor by both sides. President Putin has waded into it, as noted above, but President Zelenskyy has been masterful in gaining and maintaining the InfoWar edge since the very first days of the war, particularly in the European and US press.

It should noted that the edge fades as you move further from the European and North American newspapers and web sites, and look elsewhere. As just one example, lots of coverage of gas shortages in decidedly pro-Ukraine newspapers and web sites, but Al Jazeera, which has been fairly even-handed though critical of Putin, has virtually nothing on the gas shortages in the last 2 days. And there is virtually no reporting on the war at all in the Hindustan Times or the Times of India, and nothing about the gasoline shortage.

Note, too, that propaganda is often accompanied by bad math, often very bad math. In a column for a major foreign policy magazine a British historian reported that the average Russian soldier, from the moment he signs his contracts, is dead in less than 3 weeks. If this were accurate, at the end of 5 months there would be 11,000 Russians left alive in the theater the other 700,000 having been killed.

A word about Crimea: in 2001 Crimea had, per the Ukrainian government, a population of just short of 2.3 million, 1.45 million ethnically Russian, 258,000 Crimean Tatars, and 577,000 ethically Ukrainians. But all of them Ukrainian. 

Between 2014 and 2021 between 250,000 and 300,000 left Crimea and 800,000 to 1 million moved into Crimea, per the Ukrainian government.

In 2021 the Russian government held a census on Crimea and came up with 2.48 million in Crimea.

So, the numbers don’t all match perfectly; but, if the immigration and emigration numbers are correct, the total should be between 2.5 million and 3 million. But, it would seem that something approaching 2 million people, out of a total population between 2.5 and 3 million, are the same people who lived there 15 years ago - ostensibly Ukrainians, from before Russia occupied Crimea.

v/r pete