July 27th, 2026    

Politics - Iran threatens Ukraine

- Poland “No” to Ukraine in EU

Combat Ops - Drone strikes at sea - Caspian and Black Seas

- Few Changes on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

83 and partly cloudy. Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, then partly to mostly sunny for the rest of the week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and partly cloudy. Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, then clearing, mostly sunny for the rest of the week. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

82 and cloudy, gusting over 20, rain tonight. Rain tomorrow morning, then partly cloudy, sunny by the end of the week. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

On Saturday a Ukrainian drone strike hit an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, killing at least one Iranian sailor. This was not Ukraine’s first strike on the Caspian, but it is the first time an Iranian asset has been hit. The head of the National Security Commission of the Majlis (the Iranian Parliament) issued a statement following the strike: 

Any attack on Iran always comes with a cost, and that remains true today; the U.S. and Israel are well aware of this. Ukraine, too, may soon come to understand that Iran does not let actions go unanswered. The list of those who have miscalculated continues to increase

Following this, President Zelenskyy commented:

We must be careful. We must do everything to never open a new front. But we must be honest: the Iranians and North Koreans have already attacked us.

Protests over the firing of Defense Minister Fedorov and most of the cabinet continue for the 11th day in a row. Peaceful protests were reported in: Cherkasy, Dnipro, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Lutsk, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Uzhhorod and other cities. 

Troubles continue in the wake of President Zelenskyy’s May 29th proclamation naming Ukraine’s Special Operations Command North the  “Heroes of the UPA” The UPA [ Ukrainska Povstanska Armiia - Ukrainian Insurgent Army], which was the army of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B - under Stepan Bandera). 

Yesterday Poland’s Deputy PM and Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz commented on Ukraine’s history and the obstacles to joining the EU:

“Ukraine will not join the European Union with Bandera on its banner. If the Croats glorified the Ustaše, they too would not have joined the European Union. In the Federal Republic of Germany, commanders from the Second World War are not glorified today, even those who were soldiers rather than criminals. In France, no monuments are erected to Marshal Pétain today. So it's an obvious matter: a European community is not built on a history that is hostile towards that community.”

Stepan Bandera was the leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B (the B representing the faction led by him)), which fought on the side of the Nazis between late 1939 and early 1942. Between 1942 and 1944 the OUN-B was responsible for the murder of between 60,000 and 200,000 Poles. In addition, prior to the war, Bandera had been convicted of the murder of Bronislaw Pieracki, Poland’s Mister of the Interior, and sentenced to death, later commuted to life in prison; the Germans released him after the 1939 invasion.

Kosiniak-Kamysz continued:

"Firstly: they must understand that, objectively, what happened in Volhynia, in Eastern Lesser Poland, in Eastern Galicia in 1943 and 1944 was genocide. Innocent people were killed simply because they were Polish. The second issue is honouring the memory... The third point is forgiveness."

"It certainly won't be as president Duda promised in the Supreme Council. I don't know whether the entourage of PiS [the Law and Justice party] wants to remember today that their president said he wouldn't rest until Ukraine urgently joined the Union as a full member. The question is whether Ukraine and its elite actually want to join the European Union. Isn't it more convenient for some to live in a world where the EU's rules do not apply, and where enjoying some of its benefits is controversial?"

UK PM Burnham met with President Zelenskyy today in London. During the meeting Burnham promised continued support to Ukraine and granted Ukraine rights to manufacture the UK’s “Stone Cloak” electron warfare systems, a small device (about the size of an iPad) that can be attached to drones and provide defenses against electronic attack.

Ukraine’s Davyd Allan, Deputy Secretary of the National security Council, speaking of a Ukrainian-European antiballistic missile, stated that he wants a “minimum viable product” during the first half of 2027.

Ukraine is still trying to buy as many Patriot missiles as possible, but they need more anti-ballistic missile capable systems.

Ground Operations 

Overall, fighting on the ground continues with little change - both in intensity - there are a never-ending stream of small unit probes and infiltration all along the front, concentrated in the area between roughly Lyman and Pokrovks, and the nearly frozen nature of the front lines.

While there were several confirmed changes - Ukrainian gains south pf Maliivka in the south-east, the gains are marginal. There are also many claims of gains - many by the Russians, some by the Ukrainians, most are marginal, and often are simply confirmations that the position that was claimed days or even weeks ago is still, in fact, in the hands of whoever last made the claim.

Two items stand out: Russian infiltrations continue both north-west of Pokrovsk and into Kostiantinivka. In both areas control of the terrain remains in doubt, but in both cases Russian infiltration elements continue to probe deeper into Ukrainian controlled terrain, and the number of Russian elements continues to slowly climb. In particular, in Kostiantinivka, Russian infiltration efforts now seem to have reached essentially the entire city. This doesn't mean they occupy it, only that at one time or another in the recent past that Russian elements have moved through each sections of the city and are now slowly increasing the number of troops in each section. It still looks like watching concrete set, but it appears to be something that the Ukrainian army tactically still does not know how to stop.

The second item is a Ukrainian report on a Russian assault. What is of note is that this is perhaps the largest unit anyone has reported on in weeks, perhaps in all of July: a single “reinforced company.”

The company in question is said to be equipped with 9 tanks, 2 armored fighting vehicles (AFV) and 3 Grad rocket launchers. 

An armored company in the US Army has 14 tanks, so, one might argue this is hardly reinforced. All told, there might be 80 troops in an armored company, an infantry company might have 120 - 130 troops. In this case, if the AFVs were full of troops, there might have been 75 - 80 troops, again not what one thinks of when the word “reinforced” is used. 

I only bring this up because it serves again to highlight the nature of this war, a war waged by several hundred squad level (8-10 men) actions every day, accompanied with a great deal of FPV drones and artillery fire.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces continue their “deep interdiction” strikes on Russian power (particularly on Crimea), oil (across much of western Russia), and logistics facilities in Western Russia and particularly just beyond the combat zone.

As noted on the news (and noted above), Ukrainian drones hit a ship on the Caspian Sea, killing at least 1 Iranian sailor. Also struck was an oil platform on the Caspian and several other related assets. Strikes against oil and logistics facilities were also reported in Belgorod, Rostov, Sarapul, Sverdlovsk, Taganrog, Tyumen, Udmurtiya, and Yaroslavl oblasts. The oil facility in Tyumen was confirmed to be on fire.

Russian sources reported that at least 5 civilians were killed.

In the 24th, 25th and 26th Romanian AF F-16s intercepted what appears to be Shahed drones over Romania. The RAF and the Romanian government have not commented on the source of the drones.

Russian Forces

During the week of July 19 - July 26 Russian forces launched more than 1,700 strike drones, 95 missiles, and more than 1630 glide bombs. 

During the night of July 26th-July 27th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with a number of missiles (not yet clarified) and at least 147 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot or defeated with EW, 123 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia  oblast.  Power, transport, logistics 

Civilian casualties include at least 2 killed and 25 injured.

Between July 24th and July 26th Russian forces launched a total of 10 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 8 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 2 x Onyx cruise missiles, and 473 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 6 ballistic missiles, 6 cruise missiles, both Onyx cruise missiles, and 391 strike drones.

MV Golden Leo (Guinea Bissau Flag, Indian owned) sank in coastal waters off Ukraine on Sunday. The ship had been hit by Russian drones on the 19th, killing 10, including 4 Indians. The Indian government has protested. Eight sailors were rescued. The ship had taken on 7,000 tons of corn in Odessa.

In an interesting note, Ukrainian reporting notes that in the past 3 weeks Russian forces have struck the town of Vasylkivka, Dnipropetrovsk oblast, with more than 250 glide bombs, to include 10 in one hour over the weekend.

Vasylkivka is a town of 11,000 located about 35 miles north of Orikhiv, where the T0508 roadway, coming north from Orikhiv, intersects the T0401 roadway which runs roughly north from Hulyaiplle, through Oleksandrivka.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Jul24 Jul27

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 97.72 89.69

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 89.84 83.28

NG       3.97      2.73 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.95 2.76

Wheat     8.52  5.79 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.74 6.71

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 77.89 78.03

Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.82 44.88

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 84.26 83.56

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 87.98 86.07

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 86.47 78.89

Russian’s central bank lowered its interest rates for the 5th time in 2026, dropping its prime rate to 14%.

Annual infiltration is now said to be 5.9%, up from 5.3% in May, and has lowered projected economic growth to less than 1% for 2026. The World Bank estimates that Russian GDP growth for 2026 to be 1%.

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy commented that Russia is going to bring on 30,000 new North Korean troops, and is preparing to conduct a mobilization. This, he said, is in response to Russian casualties of 131,000 KIAs and 93,000 severely wounded in 2026 alone.

These numbers are about 200% higher than the numbers produced by Mediazone - which is the only one source count that has any demonstrated methodology. The numbers are hard to accept: 224,000 troops taken out of the fight in 7 months… Russia has about 160 - 180 brigades and regiments in the fighting in Ukraine. These units are where the overwhelming majority of casualties occur - more than 90%. That would translate into 1200 casualties (personnel who will not return to active duty) per brigade, the rough equivalent of 2 full battalions from each brigade - a brigade usually has 3 battalions. 

If the Russian army had lost 360 battalions in the last 7 months - 120 brigades, they would cease to function. It is inconceivable that what was left would be able to hold off the Ukrainian army. 

It is also worth noting that pulling apart Mediazone numbers would seem to suggest the number is - at most - on the order of 6,000 KIAs and perhaps 4,500 severely wounded per month, or 42,000 KIAs and 31,500 severely wounded since the start of the year. 

This number is probably - roughly - the same number of casualties as the Ukrainians have suffered. It’s worth noting that the Ukrainian general staff says that their casualties are 1/8th of Russian casualties, which, in this case would mean 16,000 KIAs and 11,000 severely wounded. 

Meanwhile, there is a report that Putin is getting ready to conduct a large-scale mobilization. The Jamestown Foundation, reported 4 “indicators” (that read more like speculation than indicators) that Russia is preparing to escalate:

- sources close to Putin note a “resolve to escalate” rather than compromise

- claims that Putin will announce mobilization after Duma elections in September

- A proposed law requiring exit visas to travel abroad 

- ongoing expansion of the Cossack mobilization network

There is another possibility: the losses in the Ukrainian army are of the same rough order as those in the Russian army, and this is propaganda to cover up the very real worries in Kyiv as they struggle to find an answer. That might also explain the firing of Fedorov, who questioned Gen. Syrskyi’s tactics which had not reduced Ukrainian losses to a sustainable level.

v/r pete