July 7th, 2026 No Summary Tomorrow 

Politics - NATO Summit in Ankara 

- US in discussions with Europe on production of Patriot missiles 

Combat Ops - No change on ground

- Drone and missile strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

64 and clear. Partly cloudy tomorrow, followed by 6 days of thunderstorms and rain showers. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

70 and partly cloudy. Sunny or mostly sunny through Wednesday, then two days of rain showers. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

63 and sunny, gusting to 35. Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, then two days with some sun, then more thunderstorms. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

At the NATO Summit:

NATO SecGen's Rutte:

“We don't have the luxury of time. We need the capabilities now to ensure we remain ready. Russia is putting almost half of its national budget into its war machine. Can you imagine Almost 50% of what Russia spends is put into the war machine. Its defense industry is working around the clock. And not only the defense industry — also the rest of the industrial base in Russia is supporting the war effort. China continues to modernize its armed forces and expand its nuclear capabilities without transparency. North Korea continues to expand its nuclear program and supply to Russia. While recent action has significantly degraded Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, we must remain vigilant. These countries are increasingly working together. And that should concern us all, because I assure you, they do not have our best interests in mind.”

President Trump on a resolution to the war:

“getting closer than people realize,” noted that he had a “good call” on Sunday with Putin. “This is one that I think we’re getting much closer than people realize. And President Putin wants it to end. I will tell you that very strongly.” 

The Kremlin said the 85 minute call was “constructive.” 

“And President Zelenskyy actually wants it to end now. And we’re going to be going to NATO, and we’re going to be talking about it, and I think we’re going to get it. I think we’re going to get it ended. It’s been a terrible situation.”

Kremlin spokesman Peskov commented:

“You know, President Trump, the U.S. president, has a fairly consistent stance, and all these fabrications about him supposedly changing his views like a weather vane are, of course, untrue… He is consistent and confident in his understanding of what is happening, but, most importantly, he is open to listening to the information that is conveyed to him by Putin.”

Putin aide Yuri Ushakov commented:

“The U.S. president reaffirmed his readiness to facilitate an early termination of the hostilities and the search for peaceful solutions to the crisis.”

President Zelenskyy posted:

“When not one hundred drones but a thousand start reaching Moscow, and when he [Putin] feels it and sees it, he will be advised to move somewhere beyond the Urals. And then there are the elites. Where do the Russian elites live? Moscow and St. Petersburg—the two major cities. Those places will be reached, because that is where they make the decisions to kill us.”

Dutch MinDef Yeşilgöz-Zegerius commented that the Netherlands is unable to provide any further aide to Ukraine. The Netherlands has provided EUR 9.1 billion ($10.4 billion) in military aid to Ukraine and has pledged another EUR 11.6 billion ($13.2 billion).

“We don’t have opportunities any more as the Netherlands because we have done so much… the Netherlands has reached the limits of its capabilities.”

Serhii Beskrestnov, an advisor to the Ukrainian MinDef, (known as “Flash”), commented that Ukraine has run out of missiles capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.

“It was very painful. We have no missiles at all; we have nothing to use against ballistic missiles. And this problem isn’t unique to us.”

The only missiles that Ukraine has that are capable of intercepting the Russian ballistic missiles are Patriot PAC-3. There are other missiles with the capability, but they are not in the Ukrainian inventory (THAAD, SM-2 and SM-3). Ukraine did have 2 SAMP/T systems firing the Aster 30 missiles (a combined French - Italian system). The Aster 30 Block 1 has a capability against tactical ballistic missiles, but the unofficial reports suggest Ukrainian forces ran out of these missiles in 2025 and have not received any since.

The Pentagon is in negotiations with Germany and other NATO members discussing the joint production of AMRAAM (AIM-120) missiles and as well as Patriot missiles.

Ground Operations

Fighting continues the length of the front lines, but there is little movement in the lines. Imagery did confirm that Ukrainian forces in the south-east have pushed into the little town of Piddubne, a village with a population of about 680 before the war, located about 22 miles north-east of Hulyaipole, just west of the Mokri Yaly river. The village sits in the middle of farmland and has no particular tactical significance.

Elsewhere, there are multiple indications of continued recon probes and infiltrations by Russian elements and also indications of Ukrainian elements remaining dug in, in what might be interpreted as “behind the lines” but again more accurately is termed the ever widening no mans land and the resulting “checkerboard” of positions across that no mans land.

In the key city of Kostiantinivka, some Russian sources continue to insist that Russian forces control the city, others point out that at least a third of the city is still controlled by Ukrainian forces and another third is a gray area. What is of note is the Russian advance - albeit gruesomely slow - while Russian aircraft continue to strike targets in Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhivka with glide bombs. These three cities, as well as Zaporizhzhia city, are being struck regularly by glide bombs. Strikes may not be every day but at least several times per week, and, as noted previously, these glide bombs are 500, 1000 or 1500KG (1100, 2200, or 3300 lb bombs) that are far more destructive than anything else in the inventory with the exception of the Iskander ballistic missiles.

Air and Maritime Operations

The civilian death toll in Kyiv during the attack on the 6 now stands at 19 killed.

Ukrainian Forces

The oil refinery complex in Omsk continues to burn. There is no up to date independent damage assessment yet.

Ukrainian forces during the night of July 6th-July 7th struck 8 x tankers, 1 x dry cargo ship and 1 x ferry in the Sea of Azov.The ships all appear to be small ships, designed for use in the Sea of Azov and on Russian rivers and canals. All ships are reportedly listed as sanctions violators.

Ships involved included: Venera-3, Sanar-1, Sanar-17, Klymena, Teti, Alexey Savrasov, and Penelopa. The names of the other ships have not been released.

Russian Forces

During the night of July 6th-July 7th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 123  x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW,  108 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk,  Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblast. 

Civilian casualties include at least 4 dead and 46 injured.

RuAF aircraft struck at least 3 towns.

During the night of July 5th-July 6th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 6 x Zircon missiles 23 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 33 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 6 x Kalibr cruise missiles and 351 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 37 of 39 cruise missiles, and 326 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kiev, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblast. In Kyiv, evacuations of several neighborhoods have been ordered.  

Civilian casualties include at least 11 dead and 60 injured.

RuAF aircraft struck at least 4 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul6 Jul7

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 71.86 73.38

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 68.43 69.86

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.24 3.26

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.14 6.15

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 77.05 76.42

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.57 44.42

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 51.61 52.49

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 69.17 68.89

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 68.41 68.06

Urals oil price listed as above, but contracts went for as low as $41.66 over the last several days.

Thoughts

As noted above, Ukraine is struggling for interceptors to address Russian ballistic missiles. Russian forces have noticed and Russian ballistic missile launch totals have dropped slightly in number as the survival rate has increased - a direct result of fewer Patriot missiles being launched to intercept them. Russian forces have launched at least 109 ballistic missiles since the first of June and only a handful (4 or 5) have been intercepted

Lockheed, which makes the Patriot missile, has been attempting to increase production but the rate has been stuck at 50 per month (600 per year) for more than a year, apparently as a result of the difficulty in increasing the production rate of certain components. The Foreign Policy Research Institute reports that the solid propellant takes 30 months to “cure,” and there are elements of the guidance and control systems that require 24 month lead time to assemble.

At the same time, during the engagements with Iran, US and allied forces used 900 Patriot missiles in the first 4 days and a total of 1,700 in 5 weeks. 

Patriot production is not expected to reach 2,000 per year until 2030. And prior to those engagements there was already a backlog of 4,300 missiles to a dozen countries (not to include Ukraine). 

v/r pete