July 6th, 2026

Politics - NATO Summit in Ankara July 7th to 8th 

 

Combat Ops - No change on ground

- Drone and Missile Strikes continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

64 and clear. Partly cloudy tomorrow, followed by 6 days of thunderstorms and rain showers. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

70 and partly cloudy. Sunny or mostly sunny through Wednesday, then two days of rain showers. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

63 and sunny, gusting to 35. Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, then two days with some sun, then more thunderstorms. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey 7 - 8 July. President Trump will meet  with President Zelenskyy on Wednesday 

A Russian state-owned polling agency (the All Russian Public Opinion Research Center) reports that President Putin’s approval rating stands at 66.9% - down 3.5% since April, and trust in Putin stands at 73.3% - down 3.4% since April. Additionally, the poll found that 52% of Russians feel Russia is "moving in the right direction,” down from 61%.

I’m not sure what to make of these numbers; if the polls are moderately accurate, they stand up well against European leadership, Stalmer is leaving office, the latest poll in France (May 2026) shows President Macron has 14% approval, and in Germany, polls show that only 35% of Germans are satisfied with Chancellor Merz. And if the Russian polls are all faked, that what does it matter?

Ground Ops 

There was essentially no change on the lines over the last 4 days.

There are some Ukrainian counter-attacks in the south-east (north of Hulyaipole - south-east of Oleksandrivka) but there were no changes in the line. At the west end of the line there is Ukrainian reporting that suggests that Ukrainian forces have finally dug-out the last Russian elements in Prymorske and have a toe hold on Plavni (the next town). 

President Putin said on the 3rd that Russian forces now are in control of Kostiantinivka but this isn’t correct. Russian forces continue to probe into that city, but do not control it. It does appear that Russian forces now control the sections of the city south-east of the T0504 roadway, and all two salients that run north-west into the city about 2 miles. Virtually all the rest of the city has been subjected to frequent probes but control is still contested and the “checkerboard” pattern now spreads over much of the rest of the city. Nevertheless, the “rock soup” approach to taking these cities continues.

Also of note, Russian Air Force glide bomb strikes into Kramatorsk are slowly escalating in numbers.

Air and Maritime Operations

Russian deep strike totals for June 28  through July 4th included 2,200 strike drones, 106 missiles (nearly half ballistic missiles) and 1,730 glide bombs. The glide bomb totals continue to slowly rise.

Both sides continue strikes on ground lines of communication immediately behind the front and as far back, in some cases, as 60-70 miles. Both sides are striking trucks and virtually any other vehicle headed towards the front lines. Russian forces have also taken to striking gas stations within 10 - 15 miles (claims vary) of the lines, from Sumy down to Kherson. 

Ukrainian sources note that an increasing number of Russian long-range strike drones have jet engines, giving them a top speed of 500 KPH (275 kts) making them harder to shoot down.

Russia forces are also using higher frequencies for flight control (3900 - 4100 mhz) a range not yet fully covered by Ukrainian EW

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces continued long range strikes against Russia’s oil industry and appear to have struck the oil refinery complex in Omsk within the last 12 hours. Actual damage assessments will need to wait until there is some sort of independent information.

Ukrainian sources also reported that they struck 2 ships in the Black Sea earlier today - but there is no clarifying data on that strike yet.

Russian Forces

During the night of July 5th-July 6th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 6 x Zircon missiles 23 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 33 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 6 x Kalibr cruise missiles and 351 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 37 of 39 cruise missiles, and 326 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kiev, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblast. In Kyiv, evacuations of several neighborhoods have been ordered.  

Civilian casualties include at least 11 dead and 60 injured.

RuAF aircraft struck at least 4 towns.

Between the night of the 1st-2nd and the 4th-5th, Russian forces conducted strikes across most of Ukraine, with at least 30 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 x Zircon missiles, 53 x cruise missiles, and 812 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 4 Iskander ballistic missiles, 48 cruise missiles, and 747 strike drones.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul2 Jul6

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 70.42 71.86

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 67.35 68.43

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.19 3.24

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.03 6.14

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 77.82 77.05

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.71 44.57

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 56.19 51.61

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 70.43 69.17

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 67.67 68.41

Revised reports on the damage to the refinery outside of Moscow suggest that both distillation units were damaged, which means the plant has zero output. Repair times are not clear but estimates run from a minimum of 3 months to a full year, and could cost $1 billion.

Thoughts

Amidst the propaganda claims for number of casualties caused, an interesting number emerged that seems possible: Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down 49,575 Russian drones in June. As the Russians are currently using somewhere between 11,000 and 15,000 FPV drones per day, this translates into a “survival” rate between 84.5% and 89%. 

Drone survival rates have risen and fallen several times in the war, at one point in the 60% range and at other times as high as the 95% range.

v/r pete