July 31st, 2026  

Politics - Changes continue in Ukrainian leadership

Combat Ops - Marginal gains

- Strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

78 and sunny. Mostly sunny through next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and sunny. Mostly sunny through next week. Daily lows in the low to mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

80 and sunny, gusting over 20. Sunny tomorrow and mostly through next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

Following Gen. Drapatyi’s assumption of command (CINC of Ukrainian Armed Forces), he has begun to replace certain personnel. He has to date relieved: 

MGEN Gruzevych - former COS / DCOM Land Forces

MGEN Karpenko - former CDR Logistics Forces

And

MGEN Malinovsky returned to Missile Forces from the Joint staff; on the Joint Staff Malinovsky oversaw long-range strikes into Russia.

The Ukrainain Cabinet of Ministers approved appointment of: 

Lyubov Galan as Deputy DefMin for human capital development

Serhiy Boev as DepDefMin for European Integration

President Zelenskyy has appointed: 

Former Economics Minister Sobolve - deputy chief of staff for the economy

Olena Voronova - head of personnel for the Security Service (SBU)

BGEN Fedoriv - Head, SBU Alpha Special Operations Center

Ground Operations

The grind continues along most of the line of contact. Commentary from a number of Ukrainian brigade and smaller unit commanders suggests that the intensity of fighting has increased, but there is still very little change in the lines from day to day, with what are, at best marginal gains in any one area. There are several areas worth noting; it is also worth noting that, despite reports and insistence that the Russian ground gains have been stopped, the various maps that are released by various sites - pro-Ukrainain sites - all show a real - slow but real - inching forward of both the gray areas - the areas of current infiltrations, as well as areas of Russian control, along most of the line of contact. 

It is also of note that Russian forces remain aware of would-be salients and appear to continue to pay attention of “straightening lines.”

In the Slovyansk area, Russian probes continue and there has been a reported increase in Russian use of the satellite / INS guided glide bombs. These weapons provide hard kills on hardened Ukrainain positions and allow the movement forward inside these dense urban areas inside the towns and cities. There is no Russian infiltration into Slovyansk yet, but there does appear to be a very slow probing forward, east of the city, and the striking of hard points in Slovyansk itself has taken place.

In Kostiantinivka there is more anecdotal reporting from Ukrainain sources that the Russian presence in the city is growing and that Ukrainain forces are being slowly squeezed out of the city.

Further south, in Hulyaipole, reporting since April has consistently stressed Ukrainian force presence on the outskirts of the city and small elements remaining inside the city. However, earlier this week a Ukrainain army spokesman noted that Russian forces have probably controlled the entire city, as well as towns west of the city - to include Myrne - since mid to late April. Further, Russian forces have now pushed into towns to the west to include Novoselivka, Hulyaipilske, Charivne, and Vozdvyzhivka.

Further to the west, Ukrainian forces appear to have gained local initiative north of Stepnohirsk, but, at the same time, Ukraine forces report increased numbers of Russian drone and missile attacks on roadways and logistics depots north and north-east of Orikhiv. 

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainain drone and missile strikes during the night of July 29th-July 30th, confirmed by open source imagery, set fire to port facilities in Taman, Krasnodar Krai, on the Kerch Strait.

The Financial Times commented that its own independent analysis of Russian oil faculties suggests Ukrainain strikes have “disabled” 30% of Russian capacity.

Reuters reported that the Ryazan refinery complex had “shut down” on Wednesday after strikes over the weekend.

Ukrainian Forces claims they have now hit 205 Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov and eastern Black Sea since July 6th.

The UAF confirmed the loss of the F-16 earlier this week and added that the aircraft was engaging incoming drones when it crashed.

Imagery confirmed yesterday’s report on strikes Ryazan and Perm oil facilities - both are burning, and the imagery confirms that one of the processing units at Perm had been struck. Perm was struck again last night.

Russian air defense assets claimed to have shot down 258 missiles last night 

Russian Forces

Russia totals for July and August (missiles and long-range drones) total to 4,606 strike drones and 377 missiles, versus 5,749 strike drones and 181 missiles in June. 

The Ukrainian Air Force reported the following success rates during July: 

Cruise missiles: 174 engagements out of 251 missiles - 69%

Ballistic missiles:  36 engagements out of 126 missiles - 29%

Strike Drones: 4,299 engagement out of 4955 drones - 87%

During the night of July 30th-July 31st Russian forces launched at least 1 missile - not further identified, and 255 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 185 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnitskyi, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, Vinnytsia  oblast. 

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least  11 injured.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 towns.

During the night of July 29th-July 30th Russian forces launched at least 9 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 61 x cruise missiles (mix of Kh-59s and Kalibrs), and 284 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile, 54 cruise missiles, and 265 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr  oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts

Civilian casualties include at least 8 killed and 32 injured.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.

Of note, Ukrainian military sources suggest that at last one of the ballistic missiles was a North Korean Kn-23 (very similar to the Iskander in all respects).

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Jul30 Jul31

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 89.90 90.00

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 83.82 85.27

NG       3.97      2.73 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.69 2.75

Wheat     8.52           5.79 6.14   5.82          6.06  6.78 6.39

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 79.90 79.42

Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.69 44.67

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 85.39 84.56

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 84.42 82.88

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 84.63 81.04

Thoughts

The numbers on missiles and strike drones are of note: all numbers show a drop in interception rates since earlier in the year.

DefMin Fedorov reported in mid April that Ukrainian intercept success rates from December to April had been 90% against strike drones, and 80% against cruise missiles. No number was given for ballistic missiles intercepts, but digging through my own data yielded a 34% intercept rate.  

These new numbers for July: 87% for strike drones and 71% against cruise missiles is a worrisome trend. Further, while no number was given out by the Defense Minister in April, digging through the data since December yielded a successful engagement rate of 34%. This too has dropped. 

What is not known is how many of each type of missile were engaged but missed, so it is difficult draw conclusions. But, this shows 90 ballistic missiles getting through.

As is well known, Patriot is the only system that can reliably address this missile’s (The French Aster has had some success but production rates are lower than Patriot’s.)

The entire Patriot PAC 3 production from 2025 was 620 missiles with a goal of hitting 650 in 2027 (so something in between this year) and 2,000 per year by 2030. And that has to supply not only Ukrainian needs, but US needs, Mid-East (Saudi, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar), and East Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan) needs. Said differently, if the Russians can keep firing 100+ per month, this could be a very grim winter for Kyiv and other large Ukrainian cities. 

v/r pete