October 16th, 2026      

Politics - Starshield resumes ops

- Gerasimov announces more strike on energy

- Zelenskyy asks for more money

Combat Ops - Ground war few changes

- Air strikes continue

Weather

The fall rains have arrived, which will slow down the already slow ground war and will also accelerate the loss of foliage and concealment.

Kharkiv

57 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next 5days, showers on Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

56 and cloudy. Showers probable through Monday. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

51 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next 5 days. Rain or rain showers possible daily through Monday night. Daily in the 40s, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds north or north-east, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced that Ukrainian forces have regained unrestricted access to Starshield.

Meanwhile, TASS reports that Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Gen. Gerasimov has said that Russian forces have "begun massive strikes on Ukraine's energy facilities.”

As to the cause of the loss of access, an anonymous source has reported that the order to reduce Starshield support to Ukraine came from the White House, but British Defense Secretary Streeting met with SecWar Hegseth yesterday and then was interviewed on BBC; Streeting said that Hegseth had assured him that the service had been fully restored. When asked later whether the Pentagon, presumably to include the White House, had ordered the restrictions, Streeting responded “That’s not my understanding.”

Concerning the dustup between President’s Trump and Zelenskyy, Streeting commented:

“We need President Trump engaged on Ukraine. He has been, and the diplomatic track is as important in ending ‌the war as making sure Ukraine has the weapons it needs to see off Russian aggression.”

President Zelenskyy has asked the EU for an addition 70 billion euros ($79 billion) in aid for 2027.

“The war will cost 155 billion euros [$174 billion] next year. And we need at least 70 billion euros more from you – for defence, for weapons and for our resilience. This is a realistic amount. And I ask you to find this support. It will help us hold Russia back.”

The EU has already approved 90 billion euros in aid for 2026-2027, split roughly in half each year, with 60 billion for defense and 30 billion for operating the rest of government. 

Ground Operations

Overall, very little change in ground activity, Russian infiltration efforts continue, but are slow and all movements by either side are hampered by pervasive drone coverage and reduced foliage coverage. Nevertheless, fighting is reported along most of the front lines.

In the north imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains in the small wooded area just west of Holubivka, just to the north-east of Kupyansk.

Of note, again pointing to how much this is a war of small elements, moving mostly on foot, Ukrainian forces reported a motorized assault yesterday, one of only a handful reported in the past week or so. The Russian forces conducted an attack near Dobripillia (12 miles north of Pokrovsk), with 9 vehicles and the Ukrainian forces reported that they destroyed 2 platoons and 9 vehicles.

As they did not claim to have destroyed any tanks or IFVs, it is likely these were small vehicles, to include ATVs. As none of the platoons on either side are at full strength, it isn’t clear how many troops were involved, but certainly less than the 80 of two full platoons, but that was an assault of note - 9 vehicles.

Air and Maritime Operations

Several news organizations have reported that, as of the 15th, the UAF was out of Patriot missiles, and one noted that they had fewer than 10 remaining as of Wednesday night. (Please see my thoughts).

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of October 14th-October 15th Ukrainian forces struck the Ryazan oil refinery (125 miles south-east of Moscow), and the Gazprom processing facility in Surgut (1,200 miles east-north-east of Moscow).

President Zelenskyy commented on a ceasefire on oil refineries in the wake of Russian strikes on Kyiv, noting “We’re done.” Ukraine forces then struck the Russian oil refinery at Ryazan (about 100 miles south-east of Moscow)

Ukrainian forces also struck the data center for the Russian State Bank in Saratov.

Russian Forces

During the period from October 15th-October 16th Russian forces launched at least 149 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 5 dead and 24 wounded.

Two more tankers were struck by drones while in Romanian waters:

MV Sea Destiny (Marshall Islands Flag, 623 feet, 55,000 DWT) was struck by a drone inside Romanian territorial waters.

MV Dania J (Tanzania Flag, 279 feet, 3,500DWT) was struck import Izmail, Ukraine. In both cases the types of drones were not specified.

Seven sailors are still missing of the tanker Wine Trader.

During the day on the 15th Russian forces launched an additional 138 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 125 of these drones.

Of note, the UAF reported that 360 drones targeted Kirovohrad during this 24 hour period.

During the period from October 14th-October 15th Russian forces launched an undeclared number of ballistic missiles, at least 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles and 580 x strike drones in several waves throughout the day and night. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 536 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Volyn and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. Kyiv and Volyn oblast experienced power outages after the strikes.

Civilian casualties included at least 6 dead and 30 wounded.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9 Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct15 Oct16

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 105.30 106.00

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 96.51 97.98

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95  3.16  3.22 3.11

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46  6.86  6.79 6.57

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 83.75 85.55

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 44.91 44.90

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 114.89 114.30

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 116.06 131.92

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 111.44 112.20

ESPO forward - deliveries in January - traded at 127.60 yesterday, suggesting Chinese buyers believe the prices will remain high and Iranian oil will remain unavailable for the next 3 or 4 months.

Thoughts

The air defense - missile defense situation is grave.

While it was said there were 10 or fewer Patriot missiles in the Ukrainian inventory as of Wednesday, one report says that number is now “2” and another that it is “0.” Four ballistic missiles were shot down on Wednesday night, then the rest got through, suggesting that, in fact, they are out of missiles.

The US stockpile is already critically low, as are most other NATO members. Spain promised 5 missiles in September but insists no more than that. Greece has 200 PAC 2 Patriots, which has an anti-missile capability but is not as capable as the PAC 3. But despite a good deal of pressure from the rest of Europe, Greece has refused to give up its missiles.

France has promised 2 x SAMP/T systems and both France and Italy have promised missiles from their stockpiles. These systems were supposed to arrive “in October.” Current status has not been released to the public.

SAMP/T (Sol-Air Moyenne-Portée/Terrestre,  "Surface-to-Air Medium-Range/Land-based”) uses the Aster 30 missile and is effective against shorter range ballistic missiles, but is less affective against hypersonic targets. The Aster 30 NG (next generation) which was first delivered to France and Italy just a few months ago, can address some hypersonic missiles.

The Aster 30 missiles are in short supply, the Aster 30 NG has just entered production, so numbers are very low. 

v/r pete