October 21st, 2026     

Politics - Zelenskyy: Ready for “Ceasefire”

- EU leadership to discuss more loans for Ukraine

- Steven Hubbard released

Combat Ops - Strikes continue

- Ukrainian forces consolidating on the Zherebets

- Little else of note on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

49 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through Saturday, sunny on Sunday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

61 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy for the next week, daily lows around 50, daily highs in the mid 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

56 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers on Friday. Daily lows in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds easterly, 10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy, during an interview with Fox News earlier today, said that he is ready for a peace deal, one that froze the war in place now. He also emphasized that Ukraine needs security guarantees.

"We call it ceasefire or stop killing like President Trump called it. Freeze and stop. And of course this is minimum what we need from Russia today.”

EU leadership will meet on informally in Dublin on November 13th and hold a special meeting November 26th-27th to discuss Ukraine’s requests for an additional 70 billion Euros ($78 billion) for 2027.

Ukraine is currently in the middle of a 90 billion Euro ($101 billion) loan for 2026-2027 to fund the war and to fund the government (60 billion for the war, 30 billion to run the country). The additional 70 billion is just to fund additional war costs in 2027.

It is of note that under the terms of the agreement, EU nations will pay the interest on the loans, and Ukraine will repay the principle, but only if Russia agrees to reparations; no reparations and the EU will have to pay the entire loan.

As of Tuesday afternoon the Starlink services have been - apparently - fully restored. Exactly what happened remains a bit of a mystery. SecState Rubio insists there was no decision made inside the US government to alter reporting to Ukraine and suggested that it may well have been some technical glitch - which was what the Ukrainian Air Force personnel who actually receive the feed suggested in the first place - as it has happened before.

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry announced a partial withdrawal of staff from the embassy in Kyiv, part of the continuing fall-out from President Zelenskyy’s announcement of the transfer of the North Korean POWs to Seoul. 

South Korea has also recently stated that they would like to move to ward normalization of relations with Moscow. 

Russia released Steven Hubbard, 74, and the man is now en route to the US.

Hubbard, a retired teacher, had been living in Izyum, eastern Ukraine since 2014, he was taken prisoner in 2024. Hubbard was charged as a mercenary, convicted, and sentenced to 7 years in prison. Hubbard has denied serving in any Ukrainian military organization and his lawyer noted he was arrested in his house. 

Hubbard grew up in Grand Rapids, Michigan, served in the USAF and the National Guard, then went back to school  and earned a masters in English. He then taught English in Japan for 25 years, then in Cyprus for a number of years, and then moved to Ukraine in 2014.

Air and Maritime Operations

This is a repeat of a note from a number of months ago: the Ukrainian civilian casualty numbers below are almost certainly wrong. At various points in the war the civilian casualty numbers - based on comments I received from Ukrainian friends and from various blogs - are almost certainly low. Sometimes they have been high. But mostly they are low, and in some cases quite low.

Why is a good question, and suggests that the government does not want the people of Ukraine to know how destructive are some of these strikes, but that is purely a supposition. Anecdotally, there are nights when only handful of civilians are reported killed and 30 or 40 wounded, and yet there are other reports that suggest scores killed and scores more wounded. 

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces continue drone and missile strikes against Russian oil infrastructure.

During the night of October 19th-October 20th Ukrainian forces struck the oil production facility at Novonikolskoye (about 250 miles south-east of Moscow).

Commercial imagery on the VK data center in St Petersburg, struck during the night of October 17th-18th, shows “significant damage” to the facility. Commercial imagery also showed 5 oil tanks damaged or destroyed at the oil terminal in St Petersburg.

During the night of October 17th-October 18th Ukrainian forces conducted a large raid on the city of St. Petersburg, the Leningrad Oblast generals, and Crimea, and Russian air defense forces claiming to have shot down a total of 1,015 drones. 

Targets included a data and server center, the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, a large commercial warehouse, and a bridge.

Russian Forces

During the period from October 20th-October 21st Russian forces launched at least 186 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. 

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. Power outages were reported in Kyiv.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 dead and 46 wounded.

During the period from October 19th-October 20th Russian forces launched at least 165 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW 115 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, and Ternopil oblasts.  Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. Power outages were reported Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odessa, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts.

Strike drones impacted near the Pivnichnyi bridge in Kyiv.

Civilian casualties included at least 9 dead and 22 wounded.

During the period from October 18th-October 19th Russian forces launched multiple Iskander ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Banderol loitering munitions, as well as 269 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it had shot down or defeated 4 cruise missiles and 243 drones. No Ballistic missile intercepts were reported.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil,  Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zhytomyr, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. Power outages were reported in 15 oblasts and involved 550,000 houses.

Since July 16th Russian long range strikes have hit 2,147 energy infrastructure targets, a rate of 23 per day.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 dead and 55 wounded.

Ground Operations

Some Ukrainian reporting notes that Ukraine forces have crossed the Zherebets River, north of Zarichne, have pressed into that towns and have also crossed the Zherebets at that town and are on the edge of Torske. Other reporting suggests these were just brief recon probes and that Ukrainian forces have now drawn up lines on west bank of the river and are trying to consolidate their positions, straightening lines and filling in small empty, possible salients, presumably for the autumn, during which rains will cause the river to rise, terrain to get muddy, and the loss of leaves will make undetected movement more difficult for both sides.

Further south, Ukrainian forces were confirmed to have made gains in the terrain north of Shakove (about 10 miles north-east of Pokrovsk), a small woodland that retains some cover. The terrain they are in is north of the Russian lines.

Russian recon probes and infiltration continue along much of the line; of note, imagery confirmed a Russian infiltration element in the village of Omelnyk, about 5 - 6 miles north-east of Orikhiv, just east of the T0408 roadway.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9         Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct19 Oct21

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 107.80 108.90

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 100.50 97.93

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95  3.16 3.14 2.86

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46  6.86 6.60 6.23

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 82.63 82.02

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.09 45.05

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 111.06 104.76

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 139.86 138.79

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 113.70 116.69

ESPO Forward, 21 October (January deliveries) are 128.86.

Thoughts

Ukrainian forces appear to be consolidating positions along the west bank of the lower Zherebets River, and they continue to report on the results of Operations Vivaldi, both of which dovetail with President Zelenskyy’s comment that a ceasefire along current lines is possible. The Zherebets River forms a basis for building a defensible line in that area, and defensible lines will be needed. And trying to cross that river at that point, just as fall rains start, would add an extra degree of difficulty to an already tough problem.

On top of that, the numbers that are shared speak to a real stalemate. Estimates of Russian control run between 116,165 square kilometers and 116,700 square kilometers - the difference being less than 1/2 of 1%. Operation Vivaldi reclaimed some 300 square kilometers - 1/4th of 1%

This total area is the size of the state of Ohio. The amount of land that is being discussed as reclaimed is a bit more than the area of Cleveland. They fought for 9 months and reclaimed perhaps - most favorable numbers - roughly, 100 square miles. Casualty figures have not, of course, been released, but, again anecdotally, appear to be consistent with previous fights so, of the same order of magnitude, that is thousands of KIAs per month - my own estimate is that Ukrainian KIAs are running on the order of 5,000 - 7,500 per month. And, if gaining 100 square miles for the year is the mark of success, the front is static. And, it seems any future gains will be at even greater cost. It would seem to be time for a ceasefire.

v/r pete