August 12th, 2025  

Politics  - Trump: It’s not up to me

- Rutte: de facto not de jure recognition

Combat Ops - Significant Russian gains north of Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

75 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy to sunny all week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

80 and partly cloudy, gusting to 25. Sunny all week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

73 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows in the mid 50s, highs in the upper 70s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics 

President Trump made a host of statements on the Friday summit, but two stand out:

“At the end of that meeting, probably the first two minutes, I’ll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made.”

And:

 "It is not up to me” [to make a deal with President Putin to end the war]. “A deal should be made for both [Russia and Ukraine],” that is, Ukraine and Russia need to make the deal; he is there to help them make the deal. 

Trump has noted he will talk with Zelenskyy and other European leaders on Wednesday.

NATO Secretary-General Rutte told US commented to ABC: 

“When it comes to this whole issue of territory, when it comes to acknowledging, for example, maybe in a future deal that Russia is controlling de facto, factually, some of the territory of Ukraine, it has to be effectual recognition, and not a political de jure recognition.”

Ground Ops

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along most of the perimeter of the would-be Russian buffer zone, and imagery confirmed Russian gains in Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Ukrainian forces claimed gains of nearly a half kilometer in the Sumy area but the gains were neither specified nor confirmed.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area, and south to Borova, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Further south, Russian forces had confirmed gains south of Kolodyazi (just west of the Zherebets River) and probably gained ground south of Serednie, and appear to have pushed into Shandryholove.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Thermal imagery from “FIRMS” (the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System - which uses infrared imagery to identify and track fire) showed heat signatures consistent with artillery strikes north-east of Pokrovsk, in the area west of Nove Shakhove, Novyi Donbas, Bilytske and Rodynske. This is consistent with reporting noted yesterday that suggests Russian elements had pushed into the terrain north-east of Pokrovsk about 12 miles and have taken control of 9 or 10 towns, and pushed north to Zolotyi Kolodyaz, and there are some Russian elements that have apparently reached the vicinity of Marivka, some 12 miles north of Rodynske (18 miles north-north-west of Pokrovsk), and probes have reached Novopavlivka.

There are also reports that Russian elements pushing westward have passed through Rodynske and are approaching Novooleksandrivka, that recon elements have reached Dobropillia, and Russian forces have pushed north from the Kotlyne area west of Pokrovsk and either cut the E-50 roadway or have it under direct fire. If this reporting is correct, it means the last road has been cut into and out of Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian reporting has stressed that these are just recon units. Other reporting doesn’t support that; the 9 occupied towns all reported platoon to company-sized elements occupying them, and other units were passing through. Further, while Kyiv insists there is no breakthrough, they have ordered the 1st Azov Corps into the area to shore up the defense. (Azov corps has a nominal 22 battalions in 5 brigades, plus a wide range of other assets - on paper. What their real force is, I don’t know, nor how much has been committed to the Pokrovsk area.)

At the same time, Russian forces north-west of Chasiv Yar about 2 miles, have pushed forward on a broad front (about 2 miles north to south) are now due south of the town of Maiske, and 6 miles north-east of Kostiantinivka.

Elsewhere, Russian forces had marginal gains south-west of Chasiv Yar, in the vicinity of Predtechyne, and imagery west of Toretsk confirmed that Russian elements continue to slowly press into Katerynivka. And, just on the west side of the T0504 roadway, Russian forces have pushed north and are on the southern edge of Stepanivka.

Fighting continues south-west of Pokrovsk along the Dnipropetrovsk - Donetsk Oblast border and then further south to the Vovcha river, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues south of the Vovcha and then west across southern Ukraine, with several claims of gains by Russian forces, though none were confirmed. Of note, Russian sources claimed gains just south of the Vovcha as well as west of Maliivka and in the vicinity of Ternyivka, as Russian forces continue pressing westward along a broad front.

Air Operations

During the night of August 11th-August 12th Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 48 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 36 Shahed drones 

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Sumy oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 6 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of August 10th-August 11th Russian forces launched 71 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 59 Shahed drones.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 7 Ukrainian towns.

Russian forces have begun fielding several new drones: 

Shahed / Geran drones (Geran are the Russian made versions of the Shahed) that a can carry 2 anti-tank mines and are now being used to mine logistics routes well behind the front lines.

Fiber-optically controlled “sleeper drones” that can be flown into position, landed in a quiet spot and then shut down for as long as several weeks before being activated to strike at passing targets.

Ukrainian army sources are now reporting that Russian forces have enough drones and drone operators that they deploying them on the front lines with infantry units rather than several miles to the rear as has been the SOP.

President Zelenskyy reported that Russian force dropped more than 1,000 glide bombs and launched more than 1,400 attack drones into Ukraine in the past week.  A total of 6,297 drones were launched in July

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug11 Aug12

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 66.59 66.28

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 63.89 63.52

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.98 2.92

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.15 5.10

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 79.87 79.85

Hryvnia 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.39 41.48

Urals 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 62.56 62.82

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.79 68.83

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.57 63.36

Thoughts

As I noted yesterday, given the nature of this war since late 2022 (the first 6-8 months were decidedly different), it seemed unlikely that the Russian could have advanced as far and as fast as they had in the terrain north and north-east of Pokrovsk, unless there was some further explanation, namely, a manpower problem on the Ukrainian side.

I’ve mentioned before that it appears that the Ukrainians committed reserve forces at several points along the front, in particular, north of Sumy. Over the last several weeks there have been multiple reports that Russian recon elements, normally teams of 4 - 6 soldiers, occasionally larger, probing forward looking for Ukrainian troops and scouting Ukrainian positions, and moving as many as 3-4 miles into Ukrainian lines and finding essentially unoccupied terrain. 

It now appears that, in fact, there were very few Ukrainian troops and that the Ukrainians have been forced to fall back in some areas to shorten lines so that they have enough troops to man the defensive positions. The Azov corps has been moved to the area, and there are apparently few other reserves to commit to the fight.

There is still a possibility that this might work out well for the Ukrainian army, letting Russian forces overextend so that a unit can be cut off and destroyed by a Ukrainian counter-attack. But, while possible, it is hardly going to change the course of the fighting. The Russian units that have pushed forward consist of, perhaps, 3 brigades, and is probably only elements of those brigades, not the entire brigades, and at the same time the Russians have moved additional troops into the area west of Donetsk City and should have enough forces to protect the flanks of this current thrust.

Also of note, the Russian forces rolled over a long Ukrainian defensive line that ran almost due south from Torske, and the Russians are now behind that line and the series of strong points just west of that line, and are now in terrain that had very few Ukrainian defensive positions. 

The Russians now need to exploit this salient, with some elements swinging east, driving toward the Russian forces currently pushing westward from the Chasiv Yar area and creating a large pocket around Kostiantinivka and the Ukrainian forces remaining inside - which would be a significant Ukrainian force. At the same time, other elements would push west and south-west and fully circle Pokrovsk, taking that town and whatever units that might not withdraw.

That said, Ukrainian forces, if available, have an opportunity to drive into the flanks of the current salient and isolate the Russian units involved - if they have the troops available. The key will be shifting enough forces to slow down and then stop the Russian advance, then rapidly moving units in to strike the flanks of the Russian salient. All that is possible if they still have some reserve forces. That said, a comment from the Ukrainian General Staff about reserve units suggests that the reserve has already been committed to the Pokrovsk fight...

v/r pete