August 29th, 2025

Politics  - Russian Intelligence Operations continue inside Europe

- European nations discussing peacekeeping

Combat Ops - Small Russian gains in Donetsk and Luhansk

- Russian gains in Prymorske

- Activity in Kherson?

- Naval activity

 

Weather

Kharkiv

84 and sunny. Sunny for the next 5 days, except Monday which will be partly cloudy. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

87 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny through the weekend, partly cloudy on Monday, thunderstorms on Tuesday. Daily lows mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

84 and sunny, gusting over 30. Sunny weather through the weekend. Daily lows near 60, highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

The NYT, quoting from a study just released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, is reporting that Russian intelligence services are conducting ISR operations over NATO territory, tracking the flow of weapons and supplies into Ukraine.

Politico is reporting that various European foreign offices are discussing creation of a 40 KM (24 mile) buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia as part of a peace agreement. 

The discussion also includes a peacekeeping force ranging from 4,000 to 60,000 troops.

All this, of course begs the question as to what peacekeeping force, if any, Russia would agree to in any peace agreement (likely nothing from Europe).

The US is not participating in the talks and the sources told Politico that they are waiting for a DOD policy statement to clarify what exactly DOD is willing to do to support a peacekeeping effort. 

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, offered that EU members will send military instructors to Ukraine as part of the EU contribution.

"Today, ministers also discussed Europe’s role in security guarantees, the role of the European Union, and it is clear that Europe will fully play its part. I welcome that there is broad support today for expanding our EUMAM military mission mandate to provide training and advice inside Ukraine after any truce.”

"We have trained over 80,000 soldiers so far, and we must be ready to do more. This could include placing EU trainers in Ukrainian military academies and institutions…In parallel, our civilian mission can strengthen Ukraine's resilience against Russian hybrid attacks.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues across the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

North of Kharkiv, imagery confirmed Russian forces had pushed across the border about 1 mile and now occupy the land (mostly open, groomed farmland) between the M2 roadway on the east side and the rail line that crosses the border at Hraniv, stopping at some tree lines just outside the housing area on the east side of Kozacha Lopan.

Fighting continues near Vovchansk.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Not confirmed by imagery, but reporting suggests that Russian forces have pushed a little further down the P79 roadway into northern central Kupyansk, and also appear to have pushed further south through Sobolivka (just west of Kupyansk). There is some reporting that suggest Russian forces have crossed the H26 roadway just south of Sobolivka, which would cut the last major ground line of communication (GLOC) into and out of Kupyansk, but this has not been confirmed. It is probable that Russian recon elements have crossed the road, but whether they control any piece of terrain on or just south of the road isn’t clear.

Further south, imagery confirmed Russian forces had taken control of Novomykhailivka (about 15 miles south-east of Borova) - which Ukrainian forces had retaken 4 days ago, a repeat of recent trends in which Ukraine forces can move quickly to take control of a town as Russian forces move, but Russian forces then adjust their lines and grind back over the target town.

Russian sources also claimed Russian gains west of Serednie, on the Nitrius River, as well as south-east of that town, but these gains have not been confirmed.

 BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north and west of Bakhmut, south-west and south of Chasiv Yar, and west of Toretsk, but there were no confirmed gains in any of these areas.

However, the Russian MOD claims that Russian forces have taken control of Nelipivka, west of Toretsk, just a mile north-east of the Kleban Byk reservoir. This will make very difficult any further withdrawal of forces from east of the reservoir, small boat across the reservoir perhaps the best option.

  Fighting continues around Pokrovsk, with both sides gaining ground. Russian forces on the west side of the salient gained ground east of Bilytske, and may have taken control of Zapovidne, and appear to have also taken Novoshakhove; if true, this would significantly strengthen control of the salient.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed into Novoekonomiche (about 2 miles east of Myrnohrad), once again blocking any Russian effort to close the pocket east of Pokrovsk.

Imagery also confirmed Russian gains in southern Pokrovsk and just south-east of Pokrovsk. Overall, Russian attacks were reported in a dozen other towns in the Pokrovsk area.

South of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha River, there were no confirmed changes to the front line, but it appears that Russian forces have pushed into Filiia and may now control that town.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues just south of the Vovcha River but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

West of Orikhiv, along the banks of the Dnepr River, both Ukrainian and Russian forces made gains in the area south of Prymorske, with Ukrainian forces gaining ground in southern Prymorske and then apparently losing some of that land to Russian forces. Russian forces now appear to control the Prymorske railroad station, which sits at the north-west corner of the Kakhovka Reservoir (which separates Prymorske from Plavni). Russian forces also appear to have pushed into the south and west edges of Stepnohirsk.

Further south in Kherson, there is unconfirmed reporting that Russian elements have been operating inside Kherson city and are attempting to gain control of the Korabel section of Kherson city (the south-west corner of the city), and are attempting to take control of several taller buildings and use them for conducting drone strikes across the city. At the same time Ukrainian reporting notes increased Russian artillery fire into Kherson.

Maritime Ops

Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike (type unknown) on a Project 21631 Buyan class corvette (200 ft, 400 tons) in Temryutskaya Bay; the ship was damaged and appears to have withdrawn from the area.

Russian forces conducted a surface drone strike on a Ukrainian Simferopol class reconnaissance ship (180 ft, 1200 tons), about 15 miles up river from the mouth of the Danube; 2 men were killed.

Air Operations

During the night of August 28th-August 29th Russian forces launched 68 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 46 Shahed drones. Energy infrastructure was again targeted, but several apartment buildings and housing complexes were struck and suffered damage.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts; 

RuAF tacair struck 6 Ukrainian towns.

Civilian casualties not reported.

During the night of August 27th-August 28th Russian forces launched 2 x Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles, 9 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 20 x Kh-101 cruise missiles and 598 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 1 Kinzhal missile, 7 Iskander ballistic missiles, 18 cruise missiles and 563 Shahed drones. Energy infrastructure was again targeted, but several apartment buildings and housing complexes were struck and suffered damage.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Kyiv oblasts; 

RuAF tacair struck 4 Ukrainian towns.

Civilian casualties include cat least 23 killed, 53 wounded in the Kyiv area, 1 killed and 5 wounded in Dnipropetrovsk.

On the 27th Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery (about 500 miles south-east of Moscow), and the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Neftekachka, in Krasnodar Krai (just south of Krasnodar City, about 60 miles south-east of the Sea of Azov).

Russia has temporarily suspended export of gasoline in order to meet domestic demand.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug28 Aug29

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 67.81 68.15

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 63.87 64.15

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.88 2.94

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.30

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 80.50 81.20

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.30 41.34

Urals 91.66 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 61.65 62.22

ESPO 94.52 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 70.25 70.82

Sokol 99.31 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 63.96 65.01

Thoughts

The conduct of ISR over NATO is not new; some has been conducted since the beginning of the war (and, of course, Russia (and before that the USSR) was always collecting on NATO activities). Drone activity seemed to peak in 2024, and then tapered off a bit since then, but includes the flying of drones over land, launched from ships in the Baltic, the drones apparently being Iranian manufactured drones. 

Presumably, they have all sorts of other efforts underway to track what is moving, where and when.

On the 19th, the International Institute for Strategic Studies released a report that states that incidents of sabotage have quadrupled since early 2023. Incidents include arson, cutting of cables (to include undersea cables), hacking of data bases, and GPS jamming. And, while a number of European countries have expelled Russian intelligence personnel from the Russian embassies (more than 400 Russian intelligence personnel since 2022), the Russians have reportedly increased the use of hired hands, many of whom, reportedly, are not fully aware of what they are doing or for whom they are working.

Frankly, I would be surprised if the Russians weren’t doing this. Whether hacking their way into shipping manifests, or simply “buying and or blackmailing" the right figure in the shipping department at a defense contractor, I would assume they are trying to track every bullet and can of beans shipped eastward from Indiana.

So far, 71 incidents have caused, per the report, "hundreds of millions of Euros” in damage, but damage has yet to be “catastrophic,” and there have been no deaths. The report also points out that much of Eastern Europe still has infrastructure that is, at least partly legacy Soviet systems operated with Soviet or Russian software. Moving freight across Eastern Europe on rail lines operating with Russian operating systems presents an obvious risk.

v/r pete