August 25th, 2025

Politics  - More weapons for Ukraine

- POW Exchange (146 POWs)

Combat Ops - Few gains

- Drone strike near Kursk Nuclear Power Plant 

Weather

Kharkiv

67 and partly cloudy. Cloudy Tuesday some rain showers, then clearing, sunny through the weekend. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

70 and sunny. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

65 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 30. Rain Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, slowly clearing, sunny by Friday. Daily lows in the low 50s, highs in the 60s through Wednesday, end of week warmer, highs in the upper70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics 

The US has approved the sale to Ukraine of 3,350 ERAM (Extended Range Attack Munition) air to ground missile. ERAM is “low cost” (about $500,000 per unit) air launched missile with 35 ft CEP at 250 miles without GPS. 

The USAF just started building the weapon last year, with a goal to proceed 1,000 per year.

Norway has allocated 7 billion Kroner ($692 million) for the purchase of two Patriot batteries. A Patriot battery - without any missiles - costs a bit less than $300 million. Normal load out for a battery is 162 missiles - Lockheed is still working on increasing annual production rates of the missiles.

Ukraine and Russia exchanged 146 POWs each on Sunday, with the UAE acting as the mediator.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

North of Sumy City fighting continued thought the weekend but there were no confirmed gains along the front lines.

North of Kharkiv City fighting continued and imagery confirmed Russian forces had marginal gains in the Vovchansk area, advancing several blocks inside the town.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

In the vicinity of Kupyansk, particularly just to the west of the town, reporting suggests Russian forces have made some gains around Myrne (also labeled as Moskovka on some maps), pushing southward along the west side of the town, and may be as far south as a mile north of the P07 roadway, just south-west of Sobolivka. Additional reporting suggests Russian elements have successfully entered Sobolivka and hold at least parts of that town.

Further south, Russian forces north-east of Borova continue to slowly press to the south and west and there are now some Russian forces that have pushed a bit further to the south and west of Zelenyi Hai and are now perhaps 6 miles north-east of Borova.

BAKHNUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north-east of Bakhmut in the Siversk area, and just west and south of Chasiv Yar, but there were at most marginal changes to the front lines over the weekend.

Immediately west of Toretsk Russian forces have established control over the south end of the Kleban Byk reservoir and Russian forces have reached the south-west edge of Katerynivka and some elements may have entered the town.

Russian reporting claims Russian gains in the Rusyn Yar area but these have not been confirmed.

North-east of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains in the Mykhailivka area (they may now control that town) and continued to push east and are now south of Myrne, a gain of almost a mile. There is other reporting that suggests they do not control all of Mykhailivka; that will take a day or two to sort out.

Further north, west of Malak, Ukrainian forces are still trying to pinch off the Russian salient but their progress appears to have slowed down, and presumably more Russian forces continue to move into the salient. Russian forces also continue to try to push north to Kucheriv Yar. There is unconfirmed reporting that Ukrainian forces have fully circled and isolated some Russian elements at the north end of the salient, but again, that is not clear, but fighting is reported near Kucheriv Yar and Zolotyi Kolodyaz, so, Russian forces do remain at the northern end of the would-be salient.

There were no significant changes in the front lines to the south, and south-west and along the north banks of the Vovcha River, though there are Russian claims that Russian forces have taken Filiia.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

No significant changes. As to reporting last Friday that Russians may have taken  Oleksandrohrad, Russian forces are clearly just east of the town, but whether they have reached the town or not isn’t clear.

Air Operations

Russian sources are claiming that a Ukrainian struck an auxiliary transformer at the Kursk Nuclear Power Pant on the 23rd, which resulted in one of the reactors to reduce power out to just 50% for a short period.

The IAEA reported “normal radiation levels near Kursk NPP.”

During the night of August 24th-August 25th Russian forces launched 104 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 76 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 6 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of August 23rd-August 24th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 72 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 48 Shahed drones.

The ballistic missile struck in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk; there were no other reports of drone or missile strikes.

During the night of August 22nd-August 23rd Russian forces launched 49 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 36 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair dropped 37 FAB glide-bombs on Kramatorsk on the night of hte 22nd.

During the night of August 21st-August 22nd Russian forces launched 55 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 46 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 5 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug22 Aug25

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 67.73 68.59

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 63.68 64.62

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.77 2.71

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.29 5.11

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 80.83 80.71

Hryvnia 28..6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.36 41.46

Urals 91.66 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 63.10 63.10

ESPO 94.52 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 69.87 69.93

Sokol 99.31 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 64.52 64.80

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries has reportedly reduced Russian gasoline production by more than 10% since January and gasoline prices are up 38% (92 Octane) and 49% (95 Octane) since the start of the year.

Thoughts

The Russian salient just north-east of Pokrovsk has shrunk a bit, but has not collapsed. The interesting piece here is that the Russian forces - totaling less than a small battalion in size - were able to take as much land as they did, and so far Ukrainian forces have been able to push the Russian elements out of only a slice of that terrain. 

The Russian reinforcements have moved up slowly, and the grind forward continues. 

At the same time, the Ukrainians were able to bring up several brigades in only a matter of several days, counter-attack, stop the Russian advance, and then move to pinch of the salient. But then they appeared to run out of momentum, which has happened multiple times in the past two years. 

So, again the pattern stands out: the Russians make very slow, deliberate gains after pounding some small town into rubble; as they move forward, Ukrainian forces, clearly more agile, counter-attack and make some rapid gains. The Russians then respond, slowly, and then stop and grind down the Ukrainian counter-thrust. After a while Russian engineering units move into the controlled terrain and then build another line of defense.

Ukraine needs to come up with something new… they can’t win this kind of war.

v/r pete  

    

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