August 21st, 2025

Politics  - Trump wants Zelenskyy and Putin to meet first

- Man arrested for involvement in Nord Stream bombing

Combat Ops - Russian gains in South

- Ukrainian forces continue to squeeze salient

- Large air strike, Russians use Zircon missile

Weather

Kharkiv

83 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next five days, rain showers expected both Saturday and Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, tomorrow high in the upper 80s, then cooler, with highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

86 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny into next week except Saturday, which will see afternoon thunderstorms. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

70 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain tonight and tomorrow, then partly to mostly cloudy to the middle of next week. Daily lows in the low to mid 50s, highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

The Guardian is reporting that President Trump wants President Zelenskyy and President Putin to meet first, just the two of them, before Trump participates in a “trilat.”

"I just want to see what happens at the meeting. So they’re in the process of setting it up and we’re going to see what happens.”

Trump also said that he does not intend to play a direct role in setting up the meeting, that will be left to his “team,” made up of Vice President Vance, SecState Rubio, and Ambassador Witkoff.

This was reported at one point that Trump had abandoned efforts to arrange a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.

An Ukrainian man, Serhii K (German law bars the release of his full name) has been arrested in Italy and will be extradited to German to face charges of collusion to cause an explosion, sabotage, and destruction of property, relative to the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022.

 

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the line of contact across Sumy Oblast. Imagery showed Russian forces inside Bezsalivka, a tiny Ukrainian village (about two dozen homes, a population of 90 in 2001) on the border with Russia, about 20 miles north-west of Sumy City, and 3 miles east of Tetkino. 

Further east, due north of Sumy City, imagery confirmed Russian forces had pushed back into the middle of Oleksiivka; the village (with perhaps 125 - 150 houses) was retaken by Ukrainian forces 4 weeks ago, but they have now been pushed back out.

Russian forces claimed gains elsewhere along the line of contact but these have not been confirmed.

There were no changes noted along the border, north of Kharkiv.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Reporting continues to be contradictory, with Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports referring to fighting taking place on the north-west edge of Kuyansk and well as northeast of the town a bit more than a mile. Meanwhile, various bloggers (who get reports passed to them by individuals in the two armies) are reporting fighting taking place in Sobolivka and Myrove (immediately west of Kupyansk), as well as on the edges of Kupyansk to the north-north-east, east and south-east, as Russian recon elements probe into the town.

While fighting continues along the line of contact, the only confirmed changes were at the southern end of the Zherebets River as Russian forces pushed into Zarichne, and Russian use of drones is reported to be very heavy.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

There were no confirmed gains north and north-east of Bakhmut, but along the Donets River there is credible reporting that Russian forces have taken the town of Serebrianske; whether they have full control or only the east half of the town isn't clear. Russian forces appear to be very active on both banks of the Donets River and appear to be using it to press westward.

There were no confirmed gains west or south of Chasiv Yar, but reports continue to suggest that Russian recon elements are pushing into Kostiantinivka.

North of Toretsk, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed westward from the Bila Hora area and have moved into the terrain south of Oleksandro Shultyne, farmland cut by one small river and a rail line.

  North of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces continue to push into the Russian salient, and for the present the Ukrainian forces at Shakhove and Bilytske still outnumber the Russian forces in the salient; fighting is talking place inside the town of Mayak - Ukrainian forces that have pushed into the salient from just west of Shakove. But, Russian forces are moving and the Ukrainian gains appear to be slowing. At the same time, Russian forces just east of the salient gained ground north and north-east of Poltavka and are pushing into the east side of Sofiivka.

  Further south, fighting seems to be swirling around Pokrovsk, with engagements reported in 26 separate towns and villages in the Pokrovsk are; but there were no confirmed changes in the line of contact. 

South-west of Pokrovsk, from the Vovcha River north to the “corner” of the Dnipropetrovsk - Donetsk Oblast, fighting continues, but there were no  confirmed changes in the line of contact.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have taken Novoheorhivka, due west of Vilne Pole; Maliivka is now firmly in Russian hands.

There are unconfirmed reports, from noted Ukrainian bloggers, of Russian gains pushing westward towards Huliaipole. The report is credible, matched by a UGS report of fighting taking place just east of the small town of Novoivanivka (a farming village of perhaps 30 homes, about 12 miles north-east of Huliaipole). It appears that Russian forces have pushed westward from Temyrivka area using the connecting road and open fields - with no Ukrainian defensive positions in them - and covered more than 3 miles in just 2 days - rapid movement for Russian forces.

Taken together, this suggests the Russians continue their tactic of advances at weaker spots (where a Ukrainian unit has been ground down), then filling in the pockets created by their gains, straightening the lines and moving forward. Not quick, rarely dramatic, but low risk and they are chewing up the Ukrainian army.

Fighting continues north of Kupyanske, and Russian sources claim gains north of Plavni, pushing into southern Stepnohirsk, but this has not been confirmed.

Air Operations

During the night of August 19th-August 20th Russian forces launched 4 x Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles, 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 19 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 1 x Zircon, and 574 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed is shot down 1 Kinzhal aero-ballistic missile, 18 Kh-101s, 12 Kalibrs and shot down or defeated by EW, 546  Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Rivne, Sumy, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblast.

RuAF tacair struck 8 Ukrainian towns.

The 3M22 Zircon is a hypersonic (Mach 5+) missile (top speed is reported to be Mach 8 (5,000 kts) and has a maximum range of 400NM, and weighs 8,000lbs at launch. The missile was ground launched (originally designed for launch from ships) and this is reportedly the 14th use during the war, and it was said to be unsuccessful, though it was not shot down.

During the night of August 19th-August 20th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 93 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed is shot down 1 ballistic missile and shot down, or defeated by EW, 62  Shahed drones.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblast; the ballistic missiles struck Odessa.

RuAF tacair struck 9 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug20 Aug21

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 66.64 67.08

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 63.19 62.93

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.74 2.78

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.23 5.33

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 80.45 80.60

Hryvnia 28..6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.28 41.21

Urals 91.66 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 62.49 63.90

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 67.99 69.04

Sokol 99.31 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.92 64.00

Bloomberg reports that Russia is selling oil to India with several different discounts in order to stimulate buying.

Starting in early August, Russia, which had offered oil at a $1 discount in July, increased it to a $2.50 discount from Brent, and yesterday changed that to a 5% discount on Brent (a $3.35 per barrel discount on today's price).

It should be noted that the price as quoted for any given oil on any given day often does not match the price actually paid per barrel as there are all sorts of other considerations: amount actually purchased, where purchased, how moved, etc., etc. 

Reuters reports that Russia will spend 17 trillion rubles ($211 billion) on defense this year, 10% of GDP, on defense and national security, while running a budget deficit of 4.9 trillion rubles ($61 billion), 2.9% of GDP. This will leave Russia’s debt to GDP ratio at 20%. The EU debt to GDP ratio is 81%; the US debt to GDP ratio is now over 100%.

Thoughts

The slow Russian response has finally resulted in more forces flowing into the salient while at the same time manning to press forward just a few miles east of the salient, which shows the the Russian approach well: they are not organized to exploit breakthroughs - and they don’t seem to care.

If they had been organized to do so, the salient might have led to all sorts of opportunities. But those opportunities carry risk. And they aren’t willing to accept risk. So, they grind on. And at the same time, they continue to push small elements forward short distances, identify Ukrainian positions, and strike them with drones and artillery, and occasionally tactical aircraft. 
The point is to grind down the Ukrainian army and do it at low risk. And that appears to be what they are doing.

v/r pete