August 20th, 2025

Politics  - Trump speaks to Hungary’s Orban

- Ukraine - Russia exchange dead 

Combat Ops - Fighting continues North-east of Pokrovsk, salient stable?

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny Thursday and Friday, rain on Saturday, then partly cloudy next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs near 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

83 and sunny. Mostly sunny into next week except Saturday, which will see afternoon thunderstorms. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

72 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy all week, rain all day Friday and into Saturday morning. Daily lows in the low 50s, highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

President Trump spoke with Prime Minster Orban of Hungary to discuss Hungary’s blocking of Ukraine’s negotiations to join the EU.

Neither the White House nor Hungary has commented on the call. Orban has been a strong backer of Trump.

On the night of 17-18 August a Ukrainian drone struck the Nikolskoye oil pumping station in Russia's Tambov Oblast, which cut off the flow of Russian oil into Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline. Oil started flowing through the pipeline again this morning.

Russia returned another 1,000 bodies of dead soldiers; Ukraine returned the bodies of 19 dead Russians.

Consistent with what was released after the Oval Office Summit, the Financial Times reports that it has seen a Ukrainian Government document in which Ukraine stipulated it would purchase $100 billion in US weapons, using European financing, as well as a $50 billion drone production partnership between the US and Ukrainian companies.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv, along the edge of the small border buffer that the Russians created, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along the entire front line but there were no confirmed changes the front line.

In Kupyansk, Russian forces continue to probe forward in small (2-4 man teams), and these teams are now reportedly being resupplied by drones.

Further south, on the north bank of the Donets in the Serebrianske forest, Russian sources are claiming that Russian forces have finally made significant gains into the woods - all unconfirmed - and that the Russians are going to make a final push to finally gain control of this very dense forest. If this is so, it will mark the end of perhaps the most difficult fighting that has taken place in this entire war, more complex than the fighting in 2022 for the Azov steel plant.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Russian forces are reportedly working westward along the banks of the Donets River as they continue to push to envelope Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line. 

There are multiple claims of Russian gains north-west and west of Chasiv Yar but none of them could be confirmed; these include reports of probes into Kostiantinivka. In addition, Russian tacair conduced 10 air strikes against targets inside Kostiantinivka.

West of Torestk there were multiple reports of Russian gains but the only confirmed gains were Russian forces just north-west of Poltavka  (on the west side of the T0504 roadway). But fighting is reported north and west of Toretsk in perhaps 9 different towns. 

North and north-east of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces (led by 3 brigades of the 1st Azov Corps) have stopped the Russian thrust north and are trying to cut off the salient. The Ukrainian forces are thrusting into the salient north-east of Rodynske and also attacking Russian lines further south, just north of Hrodivka. 

But, in the last two days more Russian forces (at least 1 brigade total) have been moved into the area of the salient, with reports of Russian forces advancing northwest of Poltavka and northeast of Volodymyrivka. Russian forces are also reported bypassing Volodymyrivka toward Sofiivka, and striking Ukrainian forces - the Azov brigades - near Shakhove from the west. Ukrainian forces claim they have pushed in from west of Shakhove, while holding on the north edge of the salient, resulting in both forces trying to envelope the other in double pincers even as they are being attacked -  Ukrainian forces have attacking near the base of the salient while Russian forces are also attacking the flanks of the Ukrainian forces, a sort of yin-yang situation. 

This situation will obviously continue to evolve as more Russian forces are pushed into the area - assuming the Russians get them there in time. Again, note that the Ukrainian forces react substantially more quickly than the Russians, but the Russians bring much more firepower. Whether the Ukrainians can get three full brigades into the fight remains to be seen; whether the Russians can counter also remains to be seen.

Elsewhere, there is a good deal of fighting reported in this entire (Pokrovsk) sector, assaults reported in 27 separate towns and villages.

South-west of Pokrovsk, in the area of the Dnipropetrovsk - Donetsk Oblast border, Ukrainian forces claim to have pushed Russian forces back from the border, but this has not been confirmed. Russian forces are attacking just to the south-east, and also along the north side of the Vovcha River; fighting is reported in Filiya.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE 

South of the Vovcha imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces pushed back into Oleksandrohrad as Russian forces just south of that town continue pushing west and claim to be closing on Sosniivka.

Fighting was reported across southern Ukraine but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Air Operations

During the night of August 19th-August 20th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 93 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed is shot down 1 ballistic missile and shot down, or defeated by EW, 62  Shahed drones.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in  Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblast; the ballistic missiles struck Odessa.

RuAF tacair struck 9 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Russian forces launched 5 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 270 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 ballistic missiles, 4 cruise missiles, and shot down, or defeated by EW, 230  Shahed drones.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Chernhiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; two ballistic missiles struck Zaporizhzhia City.

During the night of August 17th-August 18th Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 140 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 88  Shahed drones.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblast; at least one of the ballistic missiles struck Kharkiv, at least one ballistic missile struck in Zaporizhzhia, and at least one ballistic missile struck Odessa.

RuAF tacair struck 8 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug18 Aug20

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 65.58 66.64

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 62.46 63.19

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.89 2.74

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.26 5.23

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 80.47 80.45

Hryvnia 28..6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.34 41.28

Urals 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 63.16 62.49

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.05 67.99

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.74 62.92

Thoughts

A great deal of talk, and conjecture, following first the Alaska Summit and then the Oval Office Summit; this matrix from Bloomberg (via ZeroHedge) sums up the current status of negotiations:

The entire problem can be divided into three issues: Territory, Security and Aid

Ukraine’s perspective is

Territory should be: Pre-war border de jute, current line of contact de facto

Security should be: NATO

Aid should be: US and Europe

Europe:

Territory: Pre-war border de jute, current line of contact de facto

Security: Defense force (post ceasefire)

Aid: Europe funded, Europe and US equipped

US:

Territory: current line of contact de facto; potential Russian Crimea de jure

Security: No NATO

Aid: Europe funded

Russia:

Territory: South and east of Ukraine de jure

Security: No NATO

Aid: Oppose

Obviously, I don't know what is in Putin’s head, but my sense is that the issue of security guarantees is going to be a particular challenge to work out with Putin and the Kremlin. My guess is that Putin will demand a very large “carrot” for what he will try to frame as a threat to Russia. 

As for the Russian incursion north of Pokrovsk and the partial rollback by the Ukrainians, the key issue remains that there simply weren't a great many people, that is, Ukrainian troops, along that section of the front. In as much as that area was already seeing a good deal of fighting, that there was no “force in depth” would suggest that hater is a Ukrainian manpower crisis, and would further suggest that there are more gaps in the lines elsewhere, particularly after the movement of the major elements of the 1st Azov Corps to that section of the front.

v/r pete