July 24th 2025 1969 Apollo 11 splashes down, 210 miles south of Johnston Island

Politics  - Talks in Istanbul end in less than an hour

- Talks address POWs and return of dead 

Combat Ops - Slow Grind few gains

Weather

Kharkiv

82 and sunny, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through Tuesday, thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. Daily lows near 70, daily highs near 90. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

87 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny all week, daily lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, daily highs in the mid 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

80 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, then mostly cloudy through next Tuesday. Daily lows in the mid 60s, highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

The meeting in Istanbul lasted less than an hour. 

The Ukrainian delegation stressed a need for return of POWs and any deported children. They also called for a meeting among Presidents Zelenskyy, Putin, Erdogan and Trump. There was agreement on a further exchange of POWs and the exchange of bodies of the dead. Russia reported it has 3,000 more bodies tor transfer.

Of note, at the last transfer of the dead, Russia turned over 1,000 Ukrainian dead, Ukraine turned over 19 Russian dead.

As of July 18th, Russia has turned over a total of more than 7,000 Ukrainian dead, Ukraine has turned over 97 Russian dead.

The US will provide $322 millionth Ukraine: $172 in air defense assets and $150 million for maintenance and repair of armored vehicles. 

Ground Operations

A Russian blogger is reporting that fresh North Korean troops have arrived in the Kursk region. Speculation is that these troops will replace Russian regular army units deployed int the Kursk oblast for security, allowing those Russian army units to deploy into Ukraine.

SUMY AND KURSK OBLAST

Imagery confirmed Russian forces gained ground in Kindrativka and possibly near Yunakivka, north of Sumy city. More fighting was also reported near Tetkino, north-west of Sumy city, on the Russian border.

Fighting continues in several other towns just north of Sumy city, along the edge of Russia’s would-be buffer zone.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city near Vovchansk but there were no changes in the line, nor were there any confirmed changes along the Ukraine - Russian border north of occupied Ukraine. 

NORTH OF THE DONETS

Fighting continued along the length of the front lines, from the Russian border, down past Kupyansk and along the Oskil and further south, but there were no confirmed changes. However, unconfirmed reports suggest that Russian forces have secured Torske, near the southern end of the Zherebets River (on the northern edge of the Serebrianske forest), and are working to cut the forest in two, north to south, isolating Ukrainian forces in the eastern half of the forest.

Anecdotal reporting notes repeated recon probes of Ukrainian positions along most of the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

There were no confirmed changes north or north-east of Bakhmut.

On the south-west edge of Shevchenko (just west of Chasiv Yar), Ukrainian forces have pushed back into the south-side of the town and have retaken several blocks.

Further south, several pro-Ukrainian blogs are showing Bila Hora as under Russian control, and show Russian forces as having pushed westward into the eastern half of Oleksandro Shultyne.

Fighting continues west of Toretsk but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

North-east of Pokrovsk (west of the T0504 roadway), fighting was reported at 10 different towns, and Russian forces just north of Rodysnke are now within 1 - 2 miles of the T0515 roadway, the road the runs north out of Pokrovsk (depending on which report you believe, at what time, as the situation remains somewhat fluid). Meanwhile, mandatory evacuation orders have been given for 11 villages in this area (Dobropillya, Hannivka, Novy Donbas, Rubizhne, Dobropillya, Nadiya, Novokryvorizhzhya, Novomaryivka, Novofedorivka, and Raksha), all located about 10 - 12 miles north of Pokrovsk.

These towns are just west of the area where there were reports (in the last several days) of Russian probes advancing several miles and finding no Ukrainian troops. Taken together this suggests Ukrainian forces have withdrawn. But if they have, why they have withdrawn still remains to be seen.

Fighting also continued west and south-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting was reported across southern Ukraine, from the south bank of the Vovcha to the Dnepr, with reports of Russian forces pushing north out of Kamyanske towards Plavni (along the Dnepr River), but these movement were not confirmed, nor were there any other confirmed changes in the front lines.

Air Operations

During the night of July 23rd - 24th Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander K cruise missiles and 107 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed it shot down 1 cruise missile, and 90 of the drones were shot down or defeated with EW.

Damage from drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. The damage in Sumy involved a power grid hit that left 220,000 people without power for several hours yesterday.

RuAF airstrikes were reported in 5 cities. Russian UMPB glide bombs reportedly now have a range of 60 miles.

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck an oil depot in Sochi.

Per Reuters, European officials are reporting that Chinese made drone engines (L550E engines for the Garpiya A1 drone) are being shipped into Russia labeled as “industrial refrigeration units” to avoid sanctions. The Garpiya is a Shahed drone modified to use Chinese components. The Kupol drone factory in Izhevsk (about 500 miles east of Moscow) will make 6,000 of these drones in 2025.

During the night of July 22nd - 23rd Russian forces launched 71 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed it shot down 27 of the drones and 18 drones were defeated with EW.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF airstrikes were reported in 5 cities.

Reporting notes that the power plant in Kherson was still on fire as a result of a Shahed drone strike on the 21st.

Miscellaneous 

A Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority dredger on the Danube was damaged in an explosion last night, with 3 crew killed. The cause is currently under investigation.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 July8 Jul23 Jul24

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 70.44 68.15 69.27

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 68.65 64.85 66.13

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.35 3.11 3.14

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.49 5.44 5.40

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.47 78.14 79.10

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.80 41.77

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 64.07 65.75 63.86

ESPO 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 71.58 70.59 70.51

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 64.38 64.36 65.34

Thoughts

For the record, my effort here is to try to build a more accurate picture of the situation. That isn’t what is found in most newspapers or journals, and certainly not what comes out of the major capitals (Kyiv, Moscow, London, Paris, Washington, etc.). If we’re going to engage in a discussion of the best course ahead, for the US, or any of our allies, or Ukraine, we need to start with ground truth. I don’t claim that I know ground truth, only that my effort here is to find something approaching ground truth. From what I have been able to gather, there are two overriding elements of this war: manpower and ammunition (of all types); that manpower is the most important of those two is, I think, clear, but understanding these two is essential in understanding this war.

For the US, if we are to have a reasonable debate on the appropriate strategy, we need to first identify US goals; US goals, not anyone else’s. And we need to understand what costs we - the US - are willing to accept to achieve those goals. By this I mean far more than dollar bills: there are simple costs, ammunition stockpile issues and future opportunity costs, risks to other US interests, potential losses of US personnel, etc. But, without clarity on those four points (manpower situation in Ukraine, US and allied ammunition inventories, US Goals, acceptable US costs) we cannot have a meaningful debate.

As for the disparity in the turnover of bodies by Russian and Ukrainian forces: the obvious answer is that the slow but steady push of Russian forces means that the casualties that occur in no man’s land are never available for the Ukrainians to pick up, only the Russians. Once again, it does serve to point out that stories of Russians simply leaving their own dead on the battlefield are not accurate; Russian troops would be unlikely to leave their own dead but pick up 10,000 Ukrainian dead. 

It also would seem to suggest that the daily Ukrainian count of Russian dead is more propaganda than anything. 

As for the possible Ukrainian withdrawal from small towns north of Pokrovsk, this may be as straightforward as clearing civilians, before moving more troops into the area for what is likely to be a brutal fight. Or, it could be a true withdrawal, with Ukrainian forces falling back onto more defendable positions. Or it could represent an assessment that this terrain was not going to be readily defended and they dropped back to save troops, but does not mean any change in tactics.. This should sort itself out over the next few weeks.

v/r pete