July 29th 2025

Politics  - Medvedev sounds off on Trump

- Kremlin responds as well

- Lindsey Graham answers

Combat Ops - Gains north of Pokrovsk

- Air Strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

90 and sunny, winds gusting over 20. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows near 70, high in the mid 90s on Wednesday, in the 80s for the rest of the week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

94 and sunny, winds gusting to 25. Mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows near 70, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

84 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 25. Heavy rain tomorrow, then mostly cloudy through Friday. Daily lows near 60, highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, commented on President Trump’s stating a new deadline for Russia and President Putin:

"Trump's playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10… He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn't Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don't go down the Sleepy Joe road!”

The Kremlin’s official response was a bit more level-headed, but noncommittal.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, commented that:

"We have taken note of President Trump’s statements yesterday. The special military operation continues, and we remain committed to the peace process for resolving the conflict around Ukraine and ensuring our interests during this resolution."

When asked to comment specially on Trump’s comment that he is no longer interested in Talking to Putin, Peskov answered:

"I’d prefer to avoid any assessments. Once again, we have taken note of President Trump’s statements."

Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham, a strong supporter of both Trump and Ukraine, commented:

"To those in Russia who believe that President Trump is not serious about ending the bloodbath between Russia and Ukraine: You and your customers will soon be sadly mistaken. You will also soon see that Joe Biden is no longer president. Get to the peace table.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the southern edge of most of the Russian occupied terrain north of Sumy. Unconfirmed Russian bloggers claim Ukrainian forces gained ground around Varachyne, but Ukrainian reporting does not support this.

Of note, Ukrainian HQ spokesman reported that RuAF tacair conducted more than 30 glide bomb attacks in the area on Sunday and Monday.

As you’ll recall, these strikes, which are substantially more destructive than artillery, have been used by the Russians to drop buildings as they move through towns.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and there are unconfirmed reports of Russian gains east of Vovchansk.

There were no reports of activity further east along the border, north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued along the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed changes. Russian activity appears to be increasing just north-west of Kupyansk and it would seem that they are attempting to cut the ground lines of communication (GLOC) into that town. Currently, one main road has been cut (P79 to the north), 1 major roadway (P07) and several smaller roads remain open. The P-79 roadway to the south leads east into Russian occupied terrain. The rail line is open, but is under direct fire. Cutting the P07 GLOC will be necessary if they are going to try to squeeze the town.

To the south, Russian forces in the Karpivka and Zelena Dolyna area continue to push westward and imagery confirmed gains in the open ground in that area. Russian forces appear to be trying to move quickly across open terrain and reach the Oskil River. As August approaches the river’s levels normally start to drop, making fording the river easier in late summer and early autumn.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

  There were no changes noted in the Siversk area or north and north-east of Bakhmut.

West and south of Chasiv Yar fighting also continued but there were no confirmed changes. Unconfirmed reporting notes that Russian forces have pushed onto high ground near Bila Hora, which would suggest they have occupied the terrain just north of Oleksandro Shultyne; about a half mile north of that town the terrain is 150 to 200 feet higher than the surrounding area.

There were no confirmed changes in the immediate area of Toretsk.

Further west, imagery confirmed Russian gains west of Poltavka, Russian forces have pushed into Rodynske was well as into terrain north of that town, and there are indications of Russian probes, much like last week, running 2 - 3 miles west, north-west and north from the general area of Maiak and Pankivka - the north-west “corner” of the Russian controlled terrain in this area (about 10 miles north-east of Pokrovsk).

There is still no good explanation for why Russian probes are able to move 2 - 3 miles into Ukrainian territory and seemingly not engage anyone.  

Fighting continues around Pokrovsk and further west and south-west from that town, and imagery confirmed Russian gains west of Horikhove over the weekend, pushing into Dnipropetrovsk oblast; there were no other confirmed changes in the front lines in this area. There continue to be claims from both sides of Russian recon elements (also referred to as “sabotage units”) probing into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (just to the north-east of Pokrovsk). Russian sources note heroic probes, Ukrainian sources note all the probes have been destroyed. Presumably the truth is somewhere in between those, but where exactly is hard to say.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Russian forces continue pushing along the south bank of that river, and further south Russian forces pushed further west between Zelene Pole and Shevchenko; but there were no other confirmed changes in the front line in this area.

  Russian Air Force tacair continues glide bomb strikes in Zaporizhia.

There are reports of renewed Russian efforts to land on and take control of islands near the mouth of the Dnepr river (near and within several miles downstream of Kherson), but there are no details.

Air Operations

During the night of July 28th - 29th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander M ballistic missiles and 37 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed 32 drones were shot down or defeated by EW.

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy and Zaporizhia  oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 10 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of July 27th - 28th Russian forces launched 3 - Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 4 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 324 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed is shot down 2 cruise missiles and 309 drones were shot down or defeated by EW.

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Khmelnitsky, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, and Zaporizhia  oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 12 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Jul28 Jul29

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 69.74 70.03

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 66.46 66.71

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 3.10 3.09

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.34 5.32

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 80.50 81.93

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.74 41.82

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 64.71 65.21

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 70.44 72.14

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 65.23 66.27

Thoughts

Medvedev is Putin’s “rabid dog,” the guy who gives the harshest response to any situation. He also sometimes tips his hand and shows when something has happened that worries or irritates the Kremlin. Not sure which this is, but Trump’s statement, coming at the same time as Europe’s deal with the US - moving Europe closer to the US energy market - is not a good long-term trend for Russia. 

It’s of note that Medvedev also labeled the US - EU trade agreement as “Anti-Russian,” and a de facto ban on Russian oil and gas.

The prospect of a Trump deal with China and perhaps follow-on Trump deals with others would have obvious negative implications for Russia and the sale of oil and gas and petroleum derivatives. China will continue to buy oil from Russia, but it will be able to insist on its own prices or other arrangements, reducing Russian revenue. China will also face some limits in that it will have to come to terms with the fact that it takes in a good deal of refined products from countries that will want to comply with Trump’s requests; this refinery capacity cannot be readily replaced. That will give Trump more leverage to push China to at least reduce its Russian oil purchases.

Putin wants to continue the war but he is facing increasing costs and will want access to markets that are already being closed. 

The question becomes whether or not Putin decides to, in essence, quit while he’s ahead.

v/r pete