July 30th 2025

Politics  - Trump statement to India 

Combat Ops - Russians and Ukrainian gains along the Donets?

- Russian Gains around Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

94 and partly cloudy, winds gusting to 25. Mostly sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms on Monday. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the mid 80s on Wednesday, in the low 80s for the rest of the week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

94 and partly cloudy, winds gusting to 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the m id 60s, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

72 and light, steady rain. Rain will continue into tomorrow. Clearing on Friday, mostly sunny into Monday morning. Daily lows near 60, highs in the upper 70s to 80.. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics 

President Trump posted a tweet around 0800 (EDT) this morning, showing an intent to tighten the sanctions and restrict Russian oil and gas sales, this time pointing at India.

Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country. Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD! INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25%, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

There are unconfirmed claims of both Russian and Ukrainian forces gaining ground north and north-east of Sumy city near the small towns of Yunakivka and Varachyne.

North of Kharkiv fighting continues near Vovchansk and just to the south and west of that town, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line, nor were there any reported changes along the border further east, toward the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces have reportedly pushed through Radykivka, and have reached the northern edges of Moskovka and Kupyansk, and there are further reports that Russian recon elements have begun probes into Kupyansk.

Further south, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed into the town of Kolodiazi, two miles west of the Zherebets, about 6 miles north-east of Lyman, pushing further south the southern edge of Russian controlled terrain.

Fighting in the Serebrianske forest is apparently very heavy, and both sides have had recent gains. Russian forces have managed to take control of a several mile long swath of the woods that were previously under control of neither side, along the north banks of the Donets River; at the same time Ukrainian forces countered and now control the terrain immediately to the north, terrain that was also not controlled by either side. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Immediately south of the Donets, Russian forces continue to push westward and may have made several gains to the north-east of Siversk, where there is fighting for some local high ground, and continue to hold ground just a couple of miles east of Siversk. In making these advances the Russian have created several small possible salients in their pwn lines and it is probable that they will now attempt to straighten lines and close up these pockets. Also, this will give time for the Russian forces south-east of Siversk to push forward and cover the southern flank of the those forces due east of Siversk.

In Chasiv Yar Russian forces had confirmed gains pushing deeper into Shevchenko, and also near Predtechyne and the terrain north and north-west of Bila Hora.

West of Toretsk Russian forces pushed further into Yablunivka and even the more conservative blogs are now showing Russian forces with de facto control over the road west of the Kleban Byk reservoir. Russian forces in this area also appear to have pushed further north and are less than a half mile from the town of Katerynivka. 

Imagery confirmed Russian gains north-east of Pokrovsk around Volodymyrivka (14 miles north-east of Pokrovsk) at the same time as Ukrainian forces posted gains north-west of Razine (8 miles north-east of Pokrovsk). Fighting is reported to be very heavy and reports from Russian bloggers claim that Ukrainian forces have committed their reserves in this area to hold the line. Whether that is true or simply the shifting of forces remains to be seen (but see my thoughts).

More reports surfaced of Russian recon teams in Pokrovsk as well as Myrnohrad.

Further to the south-west, imagery confirmed Russian forces just north of the Vovcha River have occupied Oleksiivka and the terrain just north and west of the town, already control Zeleny Kut (just to the west) and continue to press westward into the town of Dachne. The logical next step after Dachne is to press to the Solene River and then turn north, as other forces near Muravka will push to the south-west, using the river to protect their flank and generate a pocket around Ukrainian forces east of Novopavlivka, as Russian force near, and just north of, Horikhove continue to press westward in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Russian forces continue to press westward and imagery confirmed that Russian forces west of Zeleny Pole have taken control of the town of Temyrivka. Blogger reports suggest other Russian gains along this line but they can’t be confirmed.

Further west, Russian forces appear to have control of Plavni (just north of Kupyansk, along the Dnepr River, and have pushed further north into a small apartment complex just south of the Stephanohirsk, and reportedly control half of the small complex.

Air Operations

During the night of July 29th - 30th Russian forces launched 78 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed 51 drones were shot down or defeated by EW.

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhia  oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian drones struck a railway station in Salsk (about 125 miles east of the Sea of Azov), Rostov Oblast, on July 29th, and appear to have set fire to a fuel train.

During the night of July 28th - 29th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander M ballistic missiles and 37 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed 32 drones were shot down or defeated by EW.

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy and Zaporizhia  oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 10 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Jul29 Jul30

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 70.03 72.79

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 66.71 69.53

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 3.09 3.03

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.32 5.29

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 81.93 81.06

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.82 41.73

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 65.21 66.96

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 72.14 74.61

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 66.27 68.57

Oil prices continue to rise over concerns of a tightening supply if Trump enacts strict her sanctions against Russia in the next week, coming at the same time that other forecasts are predicting strong economic growth, hence more demand for energy.

Thoughts

There is a school of thought that says that the Russians are starting a push for Huliaipole, in southern Ukraine, a town which has functioned as logistics hub for the area. Hulyaipole lies on a defense line, there is another a few miles north (the one that starts roughly at Vesele and runs westward). Russian forces are now pushing westward on both lines, straddling the trench lines which were dug to defend from forces moving from the south, not forces moving from the east. 

The other option is that the Russian effort in the south will focus on pushing north from Kupyansk (along the Dnepr) so as to get into artillery range of Zaporizhia city. The front line is currently about 15 miles south of the city limits; if I remember what my artillery buddies told me, artillery should be roughly 1/3rd of their range behind the front line (a 15 mile range weapon would be 4 or 5 miles back). Russian 152MM howitzers have a 24 km (15 mile) range so the Russians would need to advance at least another 5 miles to use howitzers on Zaporizhia. Russian battlefield rockets (122MM rockets) have a range of 50 KM (30 miles) so they can already reach Zaporizhia, as can their tethered drones.

Also of note, there were comments from Ukrainian unit commanders north-east of Pokrovsk sounding a bit alarmed, commenting that the Russians are threatening to create a pocket with “at least 3 brigades” aside it. While the Ukrainian General Staff maps show Russian forces more than 4 miles from the T0515 roadway that runs north out of Pokrovsk, Ukraine Pravda reporters quoted Russian officers int he region as saying that the Russian were less than a mile from the road.

One Ukrainian infantry company commander commented:

"The first group of the enemy is already in Rodynske and they are also active on the approaches to Bilytske. If they capture these settlements, logistics will be cut off at Myrnohrad, creating an encirclement. We risk losing the people who have held back the enemy on this axis for almost a year. We fear it may end like in Avdiivka or Vuhledar, where we held [positions] to the last and ended up losing both the cities and the soldiers. That’s a bad scenario. Maybe public attention will help, at least partially.

“We are not calling for the withdrawal of units from the defence lines. But we are calling for a shortening of the line along the edges of the cities, to withdraw from the wooded areas in order to consolidate the defence and concentrate more forces to hold back the enemy. That would also mean a shorter logistics chain and the ability to manoeuvre in case the road is cut.”

This lends some credence to reports of committing reserves. It would also lend credence to other reports that, even with committed reserves, there is an inadequate number of troops in that area.

Of note, in the past, comments like this have been released to make people aware that they are about to withdraw - and thereby lose ground. They are normally followed by stories of Russian units suffering tremendous casualties, then the withdrawal.

v/r pete