July 23rd, 2025

Politics  - Talks in Istanbul?

Combat Ops - Russian Gains

- Ukrainian Manpower issue?

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Some sun tomorrow, then mostly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

88 and sunny, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny all week, daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the low 90s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

67 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 30. Sunny tomorrow, then mostly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the mid 60s, highs in the mid 80s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

Russian and Ukrainian delegations are in Istanbul; Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov is again leading the delegation.

President Zelenskyy noted that Ukraine will insist on a full and immediate ceasefire, as well as addressing again the return of POWs. 

Kremlin spokesman Peskov commented that there is “no reason to count on any breakthrough."

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north, northwest, and north-east of Sumy city. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces had pushed back into Oleksivka and Varachnye (Varechyno to the Russians), another series of see-saw battles for these small, now pounded into rubble, towns.

The Russian forces are currently 4 - 6 miles inside Ukrainian territory north of Sumy; how far the Russians might want to push into Sumy is unknown, but about 8-10 miles inside Ukraine in this area is a series of rivers and reservoirs which would assist in making a defensive position. There is also a fairly dense forest north-east of Sumy that the Russians were unable to fight through in 2022. They might not want to try to force that forest again. At the same time, the Russians have, until just the last few weeks, had trouble moving through the Serebrianske forest on the north bank of the Donets River (north of Siversk), but have recently made progress; perhaps they have improved their tactics in the woods.

No changes noted elsewhere in Kharkiv oblast.

NORTH OF THE DOENTS RIVER

There were no changes along the Oskil river or in the Kupyansk area, or south of that town.

Well south of Kupyansk, Russian forces made gains south-east of Karpivka, on the east side of the Nitrius river (a river and string of small reservoirs that runs roughly north-south through the area, and flows south into the Donets river).

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues in the general area east of Siversk but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

In the Chasiv Yar area, imagery confirmed Russian forces in control of Bila Hora, and fighting was also reported in Predtechnye, just south-west of Chasiv Yar. This means that Russian forces have pushed north-west from Dyliivka and are creating another pocket, this one centered north-east of Bila Hora, west of the Donets Canal. There is reportedly a brigade and a separate battalion inside that pocket.

Imagery also confirmed that Russian forces have pushed west and south-west of Toretsk and now control most of Shcherbynivka. Further west, more Russian gains were confirmed west of the T0504 roadway, where they taken control of Poltavka and Popiv Yar.

In Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces issued more reports of Russian reconnaissance elements in the town, which, of course, suggests that Russian forces are preparing to invest the town directly. Imagery also confirmed Russian forces have moved into Razine (north-east of Pokrovsk), and supports other reporting that Russian forces had pressed westward through Razine and into Krasnyi Lyman and Rodynske

Fighting continues west and south-west of Pokrovsk, and along the Vovcha river, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line in this area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues across southern Ukraine. Imagery confirmed Russian gains in Mala Tokmachka (5 miles southeast of Orikhiv), and have reportedly taken control of the industrial area (a brick factory) on the south-central edge of the town.

Air Operations

During the night of July 22nd - 23rd Russian forces launched 71 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW 27 of the drones.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF airstrikes were reported in 5 cities.

Reporting notes that the power plant in Kherson was still on fire as a result of a Shahed drone strike on the 21st.

During the night of July 21st - 22nd Russian forces launched 42 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW 26 of the drones.

Damage from missile strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kherson and Odessa oblasts.

RuAF airstrikes were reported in Donetsk, Odessa and Sumy and 6 other cities.

A power plant in Kherson was reported to be on fire as a result of a Shahed drone strike, and Sumy was suffering from a power blackout.

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian industrial facility in Samara (about 500 miles south-east of Moscow), the Novokuybyshevsk Petrochemical Company in Novokuybyshevsk, Samara Oblast; the facility is a natural gas processing facility with a reported capacity of 1 million tons per year. Extent of damage is unknown.

Russian air defense forces claimed they shot down 33 drones over Russia last night, and 256 drones and 1 missile in last 24 hours, how many were shot into Russian airspace wasn’t noted.

An UAF Mirage 2000 crashed south-west of Kyiv yesterday afternoon due to a “malfunction,” the pilot successfully ejected.

In Zaporizhia Oblast Anti-drone netting has been placed over almost 4 miles of road leading into Orikhiv from the north, part of a plan to cover some 120 miles of roads in Zaporizhia.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 July8 Jul22 Jul23

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 70.44 68.26 68.15

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 68.65 66.14 64.85

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.35 3.24 3.11

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.49 5.50 5.44

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.47 78.50 78.14

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.75 41.80

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 64.07 65.15 65.75

ESPO 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 71.58 71.21 70.59

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 64.38 64.59 64.36

Thoughts

Several days ago Le Monde published an article that discussed graveyards in Ukraine, and noted that across the country virtually every graveyard is full and that the government has begun building new graveyards. There is, of course, no hard number given by the Ukrainian government, though one official, talking about 1 large national cemetery outside Kyiv, noted that it was being initially designed to hold 10,000 graves but that eventually it will have to hold perhaps 160,000 graves

None of that is dispositive, of course. Graveyards fill up, new ones are needed.

It is disconcerting however that at the same time there are multiple reports - provided by a major pro-Ukrainian site - of Russian probes, roughly of several squads to platoon in size, operating north-east of Pokrovsk (in the center of the line), that have gone out on patrols - movements to contact - and goes 3 or more miles into no man’s land and found no one. This included at least 10 different probes on a single day. 

Other reports, not proven, have filtered in suggesting similar developments elsewhere. One blogger speculated that the Russian forces are already advancing beyond the target lines of the broadly hinted at Russian offensive to begin in August.

This could be Ukrainian deception, it could be simply a bad week for the Ukrainian army and some tactical mistakes by the local commanders, or it could be, as the speculation suggests, an indicator that the Ukrainian casualties are far worse than normally reported and that the speculated manpower crisis is happening before our eyes.

v/r pete