July 25th 2025

Politics  - Zelenskyy signs martial law extension

- POW Exchanges

Combat Ops - Slow Grind few gains

- But pocket closing west of Toretsk

Weather

Kharkiv

85 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through Monday. Daily lows near 70, daily highs near 90. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

88 and sunny. Mostly sunny all next week, scattered showers possible tomorrow afternoon. Daily lows in the low 70s, daily highs in the mid to upper 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

77 and light rain. Rain showers tomorrow morning, early. Mostly cloudy through next week, more rain Monday night. Daily lows in the mid to upper 60s, highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

President Zelenskyy signed the 16th extension of Ukraine’s Martial Law and the Law on General Mobilization, once again extending both for a further 90 days, through November 5th, 2025.

Ukrainian delegation lead Umerov reported that the Russian delegation agreed to return all POWs who have been in captivity for more than 3 years, all seriously wounded, and the young, a total of 1200 people.

250 POWs were exchanged on the 23rd.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Imagery confirmed Russian forces gained ground south of the town of Yablunivka. Yablunivka (15 miles north-east of Sumy city) was a small village (perhaps 45 houses) but sits in the middle of manicured farmland, making advancing south the now dangerous process of moving in small teams down tree lines and avoiding open terrain.

Fighting continued along most of the southern edge of the would-be Russian buffer zone, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines. Fighting is reported to have increased around Sadky (a tiny village (fewer than 10 houses) about 3 miles south-east of Yablunivka).

More unconfirmed reports claim that North Korean troops have arrived in Kursk Oblast.

NORTH OF KHARKIV CITY

Fighting continues around the town of Vovchansk but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines, nor were there any changes along the border from Vovchansk east to the Oskil River area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces made confirmed gains just north of Kupyansk, pushing into Radkivka, and extending probes southward into Myrne (which abuts Kupyansk on Kupyansk’s west side).

Further south, south-east of Borova, Russian forces had confirmed gains near Olhivka, as Russian forces continue to push on the line from Karpivka northward, trying to fill in and straighten the front line.

Fighting continued further south, north and east of Lyman, on the banks of the Zherebets River, and into the Serebrianske forest.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

There were no confirmed changes in the front line north or west of Bakhmut. Pro-Ukrainina blogs now show Russian forces south of Chasiv Yar as having taken Bila Hora, pushed through that town, and are now pushing on eastern edge of Oleksandro Shultyne.

West of Toretsk, imagery showed Russian troops in eastern Yablunivka. Though it is probable that Ukrainian forces have not been completely pushed out of the town, it does appear that the Russians forces have de facto control of the town and the terrain immediately west of the Kleban Byk reservoir, leaving the narrow slice of land just east of the reservoir as the only exit from the pocket created by the Russian advance. There are reportedly elements of 2 brigades inside the pocket and one brigade just east of the reservoir trying to keep open the narrow exit corridor.

Just east, and north-east of Pokrovsk, as well as to the west and south-west, there are a host of contact reports and reports of Russian attacks but there was only one confirmed changes in the front line, with imagery confirming that Russian forces had seized the town of Dachne on the north bank of the Vovcha River.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Unconfirmed reporting continues to reflect Russian activity north of Kamyanske and there are claims that Russian forces have pushed into the north edge of the town of Plavni, on the Dnepr. Fighting in this area was noted as being particularly fierce.

Air Operations

During the night of July 24th - 25th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander M ballistic missiles and 61 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed 54 drones were shot down or defeated with EW.

Damage from drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy  oblasts.

RuAF airstrikes were reported in 3 cities.

Of note, Ukrainian sources note Russian drone strikes on Ground Lines of Communication out of the city of Mykoliav. 

Ukrainian drones struck the Nevinnomyssk Nitrogen Plant near Stavropol (north of the Caucasus) early on the morning of the 25th, a facility that produces nitric acid and ammonium nitrate, and the Kotovsky Gunpowder Plant (about 200 miles south-east of Moscow).

During the night of July 23rd - 24th Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander K cruise missiles and 107 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed it shot down 1 cruise missile, and 90 of the drones were shot down or defeated with EW.

Damage from drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. The damage in Sumy involved a power grid hit that left 220,000 people without power for several hours yesterday.

RuAF airstrikes were reported in 5 cities. Russian UMPB glide bombs reportedly now have a range of 60 miles.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Jul24 Jul25

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 69.27 68.77

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 66.13 65.52

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 3.14 3.12

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.40 5.35

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 79.10 79.53

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.77 41.77

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 63.86 63.85

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 70.51 69.55

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 65.34 65.76

Thoughts

Russian gains between Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk continue and the Russians continue to work to cut off small pockets and straighten the lines. At the same time they are pressing north-west as if to encircle Kostiantinivka; This could be a long summer and fall for Ukraine as there does not appear to be adequate defensive positions to stop the Russian grind.

At the same time, Russian forces appear to be making gains just east of the Dnepr River, north of Kamyanske, and further east, along the southern line of contact, Russian forces seem to be picking up the pace of probes. 

The constant churn is of note and Russian forces (Russian commanders) appear to understand that they have the initiative right now and that there are numerous stresses on the Ukrainian army and government. Ukrainian forces are showing tremendous tenacity, but at this point, despite propaganda, there is a distinct possibility that the Ukrainian line could crack at one or more spots, while there is much less likelihood of that on the Russian line.

The Russian army continues with plans to expand the size of the army, and is now instituting a year-round conscription plan as opposed to the bi-annual system that has been in use.

Russia’s goal is to increase the overall size of the military of roughly 2 million

(1.5 million Army, 160,000 Navy, 165,000 Aerospace Forces, 50,000 Strategic Rocket Forces, 45,000 Airborne, 3,000 Special Forces), with the goal to reach that size by the end of 2025.

Including reserve forces, the overall forces would be just short of 2.4 million, with 1.5 million active duty.

v/r pete