July 28th 2025 1794  Robespierre is executed by guillotine, ending

the Reign of Terror

Politics  - Trumps moves deadline: 10 - 12 days

- Erdogan calls for end through negotiations 

Combat Ops - More air raids

- Russian gains on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

88 and sunny, winds gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through Friday. Daily lows near 70, daily highs near 90. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

93 and sunny, winds gusting over 20. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows in the low 70s, daily highs in the mid to upper 90s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

75 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly to mostly cloudy for the week, rain showers on Wednesday. Daily lows in the mid to upper 60s, highs on Tuesday in the 80s, but in the 70s for the rest of the week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

President Trump announced that he was setting a new deadline (previously September 1st):

"I'm going to make a new deadline of about ten or twelve days from today... there's no reason in waiting…there’s no reason in waiting... 50 days. I want to be generous but we just don't see any progress being made.”

Meanwhile, in Turkey, President Erdogan commented that the war will end in negotiations in Istanbul:

"Just as the Russia-Ukraine talks began in Istanbul, a peace table will also be set in Türkiye soon, and this bloody war will end.”

On Friday Erdogan noted that he wants to arrange a meeting between President Trump and President Putin to talk about ending the war.

And in Rome on Saturday, Pope Leo XIII met with Metropolitan Antonij of Volokolamsk, of the Russian Orthodox Church, and discussed the ongoing war, among other subjects. Antonij is chairman of the department of external church relations.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north and north-west of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes over the weekend.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, as well as east of Kharkiv along the border, but again there were no changes.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Despite numerous claims by Russian bloggers of Russian gains in the vicinity of Kupyansk, there were no confirmed changes in the front lines along the Oskil or further south all the way to the Serebrianske forest.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK 

Imagery over the weekend shows Russian gains north-east of Siversk and Russian forces are now roughly 1.5 miles east of the eastern edge of the town. There is a small river and string of reservoirs that runs along the north edge of Verkhnokamyanske, north-west to just north of Siversk and Russian forces appear to have used the stream and reservoirs as their left flank as they pushed west. If the Russian forces assess that the Ukrainian forces are now sufficiently weakened in and around Siversk, we would see recon teams pushing into the town in the next week or two. Ukrainian HQ noted that in this area the Russian strike drone (FPV or “suicide” drone) usage is high (“nearly continuous”).

While there was no change in the situation in Chasiv Yar, it appears that the pocket just south, and south-east of Chasiv Yar (north-east of Bila Gora) is collapsing, with the eastern half in Russian hands by most assessments, with some Ukrainian leaning sites assessing that the entire pocket is now in Russian hands. Presumably the brigade (+) in the pocket was able to withdraw.

Immediately west of Toretsk Ukrainian forces continue to hold ground east of the Kleban Byk reservoir and there were no confirmed changes in the front lines in this area; the town of Yablunivka is now firmly in Russian hands. Some assessments hold that there is still an exit from the pocket west of the reservoir, but, if so, it is a tight exit.

West of the T0504 roadway Russian forces continue to gain ground; Russian forces appear to have rolled over Poltavka, though that has yet to be confirmed, as well as the farmland immediately west of that town, and have also pushed into the east side of Rusyn Yar. Russian forces also continue to push further west and are now due north of Rodynske and Russian elements are already probing into that town.

Fighting continues around Pokrovsk and south-west of that town, with Russian forces claiming gains around Kotlyne, but there were no confirmed gains in this area. Russian forces also claimed gains just south of Pokrovsk,. Further south, just north of the Vovcha River, imagery did confirm Russian gains north-west of Dachne, pushing further in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Russian forces continue to push westward and have probably reached a line that runs roughly from Zelenyi Hai to Oleksandrohrad to Shevchenko to Novosilka. 

Of note, there are several reports of Russian strikes (not specifically identified but probably glide bombs) on bridges across the Vovcha River, which would obviously complicate support to Ukrainian forces east and south of the river.

Further west, Russian forces remain on the eastern edge of Mala Tokmachka (south-east of Orikhiv), but further west, along the Dnepr River, Russian forces appear to control the town of Plavni and imagery confirms that they are pressing on the southern edge of Stepnohirsk, placing Russian forces about 15 miles from the center of the city of Zaporizhia, within FPV drone range of the city (Russian tethered drones have a range of about 25 miles).

 

Air Operations

During the night of July 27th - 28th Russian forces launched 3 - Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 4 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 324 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed is shot down 2 cruise missiles and 309 drones were shot down or defeated by EW.

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Khmelnitsky, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, and Zaporizhia  oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 12 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of July 26th - 27th Russian forces launched 83 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed 78 drones were shot down or defeated with EW.

Damage from drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Kharkiv oblast.

On the 26th Ukrainian drones hit an electric power substation outside of Oktyabrysky, Volgograd Oblast, causing delays in rail traffic for several hours.

Ukrainian drones also struck targets in theSt Petersburg area and Pulkovo airport was closed for a number of hours and multiple flights were canceled or delayed.

Russian air defense assets claimed that overall, Russian forces shot down 291 Ukrainian drones on Sunday.

During the night of July 25th - 26th Russian forces launched 12 x Iskander M ballistic missile, 8 x Iskander K cruise missiles, 7 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 208 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed it shot down or otherwise defeated 183 drones and 17 missiles (not further clarified). The UAF acknowledge that 10 missiles and 25 drones struck targets across the country but did not provide details.

Russian air defense claimed it shot down 99 Ukrainian drones on Saturday.

During the night of July 24th - 25th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander M ballistic missiles and 61 x Shahed drones, and the UAF claimed 54 drones were shot down or defeated with EW.

Damage from drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy  oblasts.

RuAF airstrikes were reported in 3 cities.

Of note, Ukrainian sources note Russian drone strikes on Ground Lines of Communication out of the city of Mykoliav. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Jul25 Jul28

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 68.77 69.74

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 65.52 66.46

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 3.12 3.10

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.35 5.34

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 79.53 80.50

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.77 41.74

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 63.85 64.71

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 69.55 70.44

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 65.76 65.23

Thoughts

Concerning the activity around Siversk (and elsewhere) Russian forces continue to gain ground; while there are some analysts that note that the rate of gain - measured in total land area captured - dropped off in June and July compared to April and May, I think there is more to it than that. Russia’s ground operations are directed at both the destruction of the Ukrainian army via inflating casualties as well as gaining ground. As a general rule the ground is gained by sufficiently attriting the Ukrainian units on a given piece of terrain until they withdraw or collapse. 

I can’t prove this, but in some cases there have been pieces of terrain that have evolved into small killing grounds, where it seems that the Russians might have advanced but chose to wait and didn’t attempt to block Ukrainian units from reinforcing a position, in order to provide another opportunity to inflict casualties. Bakhmut it seemed turned into such a place in 2023, and Chasiv Yar in the last 12 months. Siversk, north-east of Bakhmut, also has taken on that feel, and the terrain just east of Siversk has been fought over and fought over with no real change in the front line in this area for a year - until this past week.

At the same time, Russian forces continue to push forward south of Pokrovsk, both just north, and south of the Vovcha River. The Russians appear to be advancing along rivers, using the rivers to protect one flank as they move, and it seems to be working fairly well. The Ukrainians need to improve their ability to cross and recross these rivers.

v/r pete