November 21st, 2025

Politics - 28 points

Combat Ops - Fighting continues, few gains

- Hulyaipole remains critical

Weather

Fog, low clouds and rain continue to impact reconnaissance and strike drone usage; rain will affect off-road mobility. Clouds and rain also continue to limit the commercial imagery that has been used to confirm changes on the battlefield. 

Kharkiv

51 and partly cloudy, rain tonight, gusting to 20. Saturday afternoon brief clearing, then cloudy again, cloudy through Monday, rain possible on Monday. Daily lows in low 40s through Monday, daily high 40s to low 50s through Monday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

56 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy through Monday, rain possible Monday. Daily lows in the 40s; highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds south-easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

37 and cloudy, rain. Rain through Sunday night, cloudy for the next week. In the 40s tonight and tomorrow, then colder, Monday and Tuesday in the 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

The peace proposal is the major issue, as would be expected. There are different versions of the origins, one suggests the US team, under the guidance of SecState Rubio and Ambassador Wykoff, drew this up on their own and then presented it to the Ukrainian government. 

Another version of the story, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, suggests that an earlier version of the plan would include an audit of all external support to Ukraine, but that was removed and item #26 was inserted at the insistence of Ukrainian participants. 

Russia has said that it was not involved, but one source added “But, of course there has been contact.” And, of course, the proposal has been widely panned by some, and praised by others.

After meeting with the US Army’s Chief of Staff yesterday, President Zelenskyy commented:

“The American side presented points of a plan to end the war – their vision. I outlined our key principles. We agreed that our teams will work on the points to ensure it’s all genuine.”

“From the first days of the war, we have upheld one very simple position: Ukraine needs peace. A real peace – one that will not be broken by a third invasion. A dignified peace – with terms that respect our independence, our sovereignty and the dignity of the Ukrainian people.”

After speaking with VP Vance, Zelenskyy commented:

"We managed to cover a lot of details of the American side's proposals for ending the war, and we're working to make the path forward dignified and truly effective for achieving a lasting peace… [He was grateful] the attention and willingness to work together with us and our partners…We agreed to work together with the US and Europe at the level of national security advisors to make the path to peace truly doable.”

European Union Foreign Policy head Kaja Kallas commented:

“Of course, for any plan to work, it needs Ukrainians and Europeans on board.”

Here are the 28 points, from a still draft copy (per Al Jazeera released by an anonymous Ukrainian official to the press).

1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. All ambiguities from the last 30 years are considered resolved.

3. Russia is expected not to invade neighboring countries, and NATO will not expand further.

4. Russia and NATO, through the US, will engage in dialogue to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.

5. Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees.

6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to record that Ukraine will not be admitted to the Alliance in the future.

8. NATO agrees that its troops will not be stationed in Ukraine.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

10. The US guarantees will come with the following caveats:
- The US will be compensated for the guarantee (security);
- If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantees;
- If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a determined coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reimposed on Russia, recognition of new territory will be withdrawn, and all other benefits from this agreement will be rescinded;
- If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be considered null and void.

11. Ukraine may join the EU and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.

12. A powerful global package of measures for Ukraine’s reconstruction will include among other things:
- Establishment of the Ukraine Development Fund to invest in rapidly growing sectors of industry, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence;
- The US will collaborate with Ukraine in joint rebuilding, development, modernization, and operation of Ukrainian gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities;
- Joint efforts to renew war-affected areas to restore and modernize cities and residential zones;
- Infrastructure development;
- Extraction of minerals and natural resources;
- The World Bank will design a special financial package to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
- Lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages, case by case;
- The US will conclude a long-term economic cooperation agreement with Russia for mutual development in energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metals extraction in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial business opportunities;
- Russia will be invited back into the G8.

14. Frozen assets will be used as follows:
- $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine;
- The US will receive 50 percent of the profits from this endeavor;
- Europe will add $100 billion to increase the total investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be released;
- The remaining frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment fund to carry out joint projects in specific areas. The fund’s goal will be to strengthen relations and common interests to create a strong incentive to avoid renewed conflict.

15. A joint US-Russian security task force will be established to promote adherence to all provisions of this agreement and oversee its implementation.

16. Russia will legally sanction its policy of non-aggression toward Europe and Ukraine.

17. The US and Russia will agree to extend nonproliferation and nuclear arms control treaties, including the START I Treaty.

18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be operated under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the electricity produced will be divided equally between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Both countries commit to implementing educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance towards different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:
- Ukraine will adopt EU principles concerning religious tolerance and protection of language minorities;
- Both countries will agree to repeal all discriminatory measures and guarantee rights for Ukrainian and Russian media and education;
- All Nazi ideology and activity must be rejected and banned.

21. Territories:
- Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the US;
- Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts will be frozen along the line of contact, meaning de facto recognition (of territory) along the contact line;
- Russia will withdraw from other agreed areas it controls outside these five regions;
- Ukrainian forces will withdraw from parts of Donetsk oblast they currently control, with the withdrawal zone recognized as a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.

22. Upon agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine commit not to change these arrangements by force. Security guarantees will not apply if this commitment is violated.

23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnipro River for trade purposes, and agreements will be reached for the free export of grain through the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian commission will be established to resolve unsettled issues:
- All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an “all-for-all” basis;
- All detained civilians and hostages, including children, will be released;
- A program to reunite families will be implemented;
- Efforts will be undertaken to alleviate the suffering of conflict victims.

25. Ukraine will hold elections within 100 days.

26. All parties to the conflict will receive full amnesty for acts committed during the war and agree not to pursue any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. Violations will be subject to sanctions.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, a ceasefire will come into effect immediately after both sides withdraw to agreed points and begin implementing the agreement.

Rustem Umerov, former Ukrainian MinDef and currently Secretary of the National Security Council, and nominal lead negotiator, commented:

"Yesterday, the President of Ukraine held a conversation with the American delegation authorized by President Trump. Today, this work continues in Kyiv at the technical level between the teams. We are carefully studying all the partners' proposals, expecting the same correct attitude to the Ukrainian position. Publications in the media about the alleged "agreement" or "removal of points" have nothing to do with reality. These are examples of unverified information that arose outside the context of consultations.”

"I did not provide any assessments or, even more so, approval of any points. This is not within my powers and does not comply with the procedure.”

At the same time Axios is reporting peace plan will be backed by a security guarantee from the US for a collective response to a Russian attack, similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The guarantee would be in force for 10 years.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv City and the lack of clear imagery continues to cloud (pun intended) the situation on the ground.

Further east, along the border, north of the Oskil River, Ukrainian forces have pushed back into Dvorichancke, and the Russian element - probably just a squad-sized recon element that entered the town on the 15th or 16th - has been pushed out of the town.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in Kupyansk, despite the announcement by Gen. Gerasimov's (Chief of the General Staff, Russia) announcement that the city is now “occupied” by Russian forces. Russian bloggers and Ukrainian bloggers both seem to agree that the city is at most partly held by Russian forces and portray the fighting in Kupyansk as currently favoring the Ukrainians.  Fighting is also taking place just east of the city, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines.

There are no confirmed changes to the front lines further south, to the Donets; Ukrainian reporting notes significant Russian drone usage as Russian forces attempt to interdict the GLOCs running into Lyman. Imagery also confirmed a Russian recon probe along the eastern edge of Lyman, moving up the T0514 roadway (also known as Pushkina Street).

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut, fighting continues inside and north, east and south of Siversk. Russian sourced reports suggest that Russian forces have pushed well into the south side of the city, and one source claims that Russian forces control nearly a quarter of the city itself, but this has not been confirmed. Whether they do or don’t Russian forces do not control the small ridge line to the west (about 100-150 feet higher than the town), so movement further west will be stalled until they can take that ridge, which may well be more difficult than taking the town.

South-west of Chasiv Yar, north-west of Toretsk, Russian and Ukrainian forces remain engaged along the south-east edge of Kostiantinivka and inside Ivanopillia, and imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces engaged a Russian recon elements in south-east Kostiantinivka and the Russian element appears to have withdrawn.

Fighting continues west of Toretsk, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Fighting continues inside Pokrovsk, in Rodynske (just north of Pokrovsk) and in Myrnohrad and across the Pokrovsk pocket, but there were no confirmed charges in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces continue to attack and probe westward at multiple points along the line stretching from the Hulyaipole area northward. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces had take the town of Vesele (about 6 miles east-north-east of Hulyaipole) no later than the 19th. There are claims also that the small village of Zatyshshya (2 miles north-east of Hulyaipole) has been take by Russian forces. In itself, this isn’t significant, but there are several strong points just outside the village, one in particular just south of the village, that needs to be taken as it would threaten the Russian left flank at it pressed south-west  to Hukyaipole. If that “fort” has been taken this will reduce the threat to Russia’s left flank and allow more Russian movement towards Huylaipole.

Various blogger reports suggest Russian gains at several other points along the line.

Russian forces were active in the vicinity of the Antonovskiy bridge on the Dnepr River, up river from Kherson.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 19th-November 20th Russian forces launched at least 115 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 95 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

At least 5 killed and 3 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. As rescue workers continue clearing rubble in Ternopil, the casualty total now stands at 27 killed and 94 wounded civilians.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

There are still no independent damage reports on the November 19th Ukrainian strikes on the Russian refineries at Ryazan or Krasnodar Krai.

During the night of November 19th-November 20th Russian forces launched at least 135 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 106 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Ternpil oblasts, damaging energy infrastructure and forcing Ukraine to use rolling blackouts across much of the country as they tried to repair damage.

There are no casualty reports yet today.

RuAF tacair struck 5 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov20 Nov21

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 64.07 62.81

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.77 58.31

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.48 4.55

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.55 5.39

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 80.06 79.03

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.19 42.24

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 55.40

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 59.50 59.50

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.24 59.42

The Ukraine harvest to date has yielded 50.9 million tons of grain. Numbers in parentheses are from 2021.

Wheat 22.9 million tons (33 million tons)

Barley 5.4 million tons (9.9 million tons)

Corn 20.8 million tons (41.9 million tons)

Peas 670,000 tons (570,000 tons

Other Grain 896,000 tons

17 million tons of oil seeds, to include:

Sunflower 9 million tons (17.5 million tons)

Soybean 4.7 million tons (3.8 million tons)

Rapeseed 3.3 million tons (3 million tons)

Plus:

Sugar Beets 9.9 million tons (10.3 million tons)

Thoughts

The peace proposal has received a good deal of rebuke from some, who are calling it a surrender. There has been no statement from the Kremlin yet, and I would guess they want to see Kyiv’s response. 

As noted yesterday, the key terms are much what Ukraine was about to sign in Spring 2022.

But there has not yet been a major reaction among the population, at least as noted in the papers, and President Zelenskyy’s tone is certainly not one of outright rejection.

Meanwhile, the Estonian Ministry of Defense head of Readiness, esteemed that Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad will fall to the Russians in December. Several days ago the Estonian head of military intelligence, Col. Kiviselg, suggested that Ukrainian can hold Pokrovsk for another 2 weeks or so, but Russia will take the city.

These comments are of note because the Estonians have a track record over the that 4 years of making the most accurate assessments of any of the regional governments; not perfect, but better than anyone else, and very little spin or propaganda.

v/r pete