NOVEMBER 28th, 2025 Abbreviated format today

Politics 

The negotiations continue. Of note, President Putin yesterday commented on the Trump Peace Proposal: 

 “In general, we agree that this can be the basis for future agreements.”

While this is of note, it isn't really clear that Putin is prepared to start talks based on the 28 point plan, or the revised 19 point plan that has been generated in Geneva, a derivative of the first plan.

The latest from Kyiv: President Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Yermak is resigning; President Zelenskyy stated: 

"I want no one to have any questions about Ukraine. Therefore, today the following internal decisions will be made: the Office of the President of Ukraine will be rebooted. The head of the Office, Andrii Yermak, has written a letter of resignation." 

Correction - the Witkoff conversation noted on Wednesday was with Putin’s ForPol aide Yury Ushakov, not Putin aide Kirill Dmitriev. Ushakov had spoken to Dmitriev, but Witkoff had not.

Combat Ops

Fighting continues along the essentially the entire line of contact. Russian forces had gains in several areas over the last two days, as did Ukrainian forces. But, in the key points along the front: Kupyansk, Siversk, Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole, while there were some Ukrainian gains, the tide is still in favor of the Russians. What is of particular note is that there seems to be a growing difference between what is being reported, a sort of “three-corner hat” of analysis. At one corner is the Kyiv “map,” at another corner is the map of what might be called the European “map" (the pro-Ukrainian analytic community), and at the third corner is the Moscow “map.” The differences have always existed but they seem to be growing. One blogger analyst suggested that the others are now in denial, and I think it is fair to say that one capital or the other is going to be shown to be clearly out of touch with the battlefield. Which one remains to be seen.

All that said, While there were minor gains by both Ukrainian and Russian forces around Kupyansk, south of Kupyansk, (north-east of Borova) a Ukrainian force of unknown size, probably about a battalion) appears to have been circled by Ukrainian forces, but they are holding their position.

Just a bit further south Russian forces appear to have made some small gains both on the east side of Siversk and west of that city,

But it is around Pokrovsk and around Hulyaipole that the Ukrainian forces are having trouble. There is a great deal of detailed reporting, much of it contradictory, but sorting through it all, and the various biases from both capitals, it appears that Russian forces control all of Pokrovsk except small, isolated Ukrainian elements scattered across the area. As for the Pokrovsk pocket, which now mainly consists of the city of Myrnohrad, it seems that, at a minimum, the last roads and paths out of the pocket are under direct fire from Russian artillery. And while there is not yet definitive proof, the GLOC was probably cut on Wednesday or Thursday; the pocket is closed. 

How many Ukrainian troops remain inside the pocket is not known, but speculation seems to cycle between 1,000 and 2,000 troops, elements of 3 different brigades.

Further south, Russian forces continue to press into open farmland and straighten their lines, and north of Hulyaipole the Russians continue to press westward. As with other cities, the actual front line in or through or around Hulyaipole is hard to know, but it appears that the Russians have taken the high ground east of the city, and have closed to the northern and north-eastern edge of the city. Probes continue into the city as do drones and artillery strikes. It is impossible to know, but it would seem Hulyaipole could fall during December.

Thoughts

There three overlapping issues here: the status of combat operations, the various versions of the Trump Peace proposal, and the growing corruption scandal, obviously make things very difficult for all concerned. My own sense is that the Ukrainian army is weakening, and that is a function of manpower losses that are overwhelmingly among the combat arms, and especially the infantry. The loss of perhaps a thousand combat troops (and maybe more) just underlines the problem.

The peace proposal machinations grind forward but there is reason to wonder what Putin “agreed” with: the 28 point version, or some version of the European amended proposal. My guess is that Putin is not going to accept any proposal unless it includes Donetsk, Luhansk and the current front line, and at the same time, no NATO forces stationed in Ukraine. The size of the army is, I think, not significant as Ukraine, a country of 31 million, will not be able to support an army of 800,000 or even 600,000. A force of 2% of your population is simply too expensive and could only be maintained if Europe paid the bill.

As for the corruption issue, there are three obvious schools of thought: 1) Zelenskyy is innocent of any corruption and he needs this investigation to proceed and ending the war might facilitate that; 2) Zelenskyy is involved so he would want to keep the war going so he remains powerful enough to keep his position; or 3) Zelenskyy is involved and he would want to use the peace process to gain immunity. 

Whichever the reality, Yermak has been his friend and closest advisor for years; the loss of Yermak is going to weaken him politically at least in the near term.

v/r pete