November 19th, 2025

Politics - US, Russia, Ukraine agreement rumor

- Russian consulate in Gdansk closed

- Patriot upgrade for Ukraine

Combat Ops - Missile Drone strike, casualties, damage to power grid

- Multiple gains by both sides on the ground

Weather

Fog, low clouds and rain continue to impact reconnaissance and strike drone usage; rain will affect off-road mobility.

Kharkiv

34 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, rain showers Thursday and Friday. Tomorrow will be in the 30s all day, but Friday through Sunday will see lows in the low 50s and highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

39 and cloudy. Cloudy to partly cloudy through the weekend, rain tonight, tomorrow and again on Monday. Daily lows in the 40s; Thursday highs will be in the low 50s, but the following three days will see highs in the low 60s. Winds south-easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

33 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, rain Friday through Sunday. In the 20s tomorrow morning, then a bit warmer, with daily lows in the 30s, highs in the mid 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Politico reports that the White House has been working on an agreement with Moscow in the very near term, possibly before the end of the month.

Polish ForMin Sikorski announced that Poland is ordering the closing of the Russian consulate in Gdansk in the wake of the sabotage of rail lines over the weekend. 

“I have decided to withdraw consent for the operation of the Russian consulate in Gdansk.”

This will leave the Embassy in Warsaw as the only Russian consular presence in Poland. The Kremlin responded that this was an example of Russophobia.

Earlier, PM Tusk had commented:

“As a result of the investigation, we now know it was the Russian Secret Services that commissioned the blast of the Polish railway and recruited two Ukrainians to do it. We also know the identities of the perpetrators who immediately fled Poland for Belarus.”

China’s Premier Li Qiang on Monday called for closer cooperations between China and Russia investment, energy, agriculture, and is hoping for more opportunities for China to invest in Russia.

On Monday China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng commented on ending the war in Ukraine that China can play a key role… China will continue to play a constructive role in the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”

The Pentagon has approved a $105 million sale of parts, maintenance and systems upgrades to PATRIOT systems to Ukraine, upgrading the system to the M903 standard, the latest version of the system.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv city, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. That said, there are Russian sourced reports  that Russian forces just south-west of Vovchansk have pushed south and taken the small town os Tsehelne. There is also a good deal of disagreement as to the precise location of the front lines, with some Ukrainian sources suggesting that Russian forces have made material gains in Vovchansk over the last several weeks and pushed south, past the T2104 - T2108 intersection, which would give them control of the entire south, and west side and most of the center of the city. Other Ukrainian sources put the line about 1.5 miles north-west of there, leaving a slice of the city in Ukrainian control, or firmly in “no mans land."

There was no change to the front line immediately north of the Oskil river along the Russia - Ukraine border.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. South-east of Kupyansk, imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains just north-east of Pishchane, suggesting that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces out of that town. Further south, imagery also confirmed small Ukrainian gains north-east of Borova.

Further south, in the line between the Zherebets River and the Nitrius River, there were no confirmed changes in the front line, but Ukrainian reporting notes Russian recon probes tied to heavy drone use, as has been successful at other points along the entire front in the last several months.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Russian forces appear to have penetrated into both the eastern edge and southern edge of Siversk. At the same time reporting - unconfirmed - continues to suggest that Russian forces have taken Platonivka, just north-west of Siversk. If they have not taken it, they are pressing hard on Platonivka and are trying to take it. Russian forces in that area already have de facto drone interdiction capability of the T0513 roadway that leads past Platonivka into Siversk. Russian forces taking Platonivka would further tighten the logistics problem inside Siversk.

South-west of Chasiv Yar, north-west of Toretsk, Russian forces continue to probe into Kostianitnivka, but there were no changes in the front lines in this area.

West of Torestk, north and north-east of the Pokrovsk pocket, Russian and Ukrainian forces remain heavily engaged along the Shakhove - Nove Shakhove - Dorozhnyi line. Imagery yesterday showed Russian gains in Dorozhnyi. Dorozhnyi is a small village next to a rail yard and what appears to be several large mounds of gravel and aggregate. As with much of the fighting here, this appears to be part of the “see-saw” fighting for small towns and industrial facilities that have taken place repeatedly.

Imagery confirms that Russian forces have pushed into north-east Pokrovsk, and imagery also shows that Russian forces have pushed further northward along the T0515 roadway, definitively leaving the gap at the mouth of the Pokrovsk pocket less than 2 miles (less than 3 kilometers) wide. At the same time other reporting suggested Russian gains on the north side of Rodynske, in Rivne, and in Myrnohrad.

Further south, fighting was reported just outside Novopavlivka and south-east of that city in the area north of Dachne, east of Fillia, where Russians are still trying to straighten their lines, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, north and north-east of Hulyaiplle, there are multiple claims of Russian gains, but there are no confirmed changes to the front lines. However, unconfirmed reports, echoed in Ukrainian blogs, suggest that Russian forces continue to push on Hulyaipole, with Russian forces now just 2.5 miles north-east of the city and less than 2 miles south-east of the city. In addition, there are claims that Russian forces have taken the small village of Nechaivka (maybe 30 houses), about 11 miles north of Hulyaipole, along the T0401 roadway (just east of the Haichur River).

Further west, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces counter-attacked and have pushed back into Mala Tokmachka, south-east of Orikhiv. Imagery also confirmed that Ukrainian forces pushed south out of Stepnohirsk, into the small complex of apartment buildings just south of the center of the town, and have retaken one of the buildings in that complex.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 18th-November 19th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 40 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 7 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 476  x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 34 KH-101 cruise missiles, all 7 Kalibr cruise missiles and 442 drones. 

Damage was reported in  Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khakriv, Kherson, Khmelnitskyi, Kyiv, Lviv, Sumy,  and Ternopil oblasts. Damage to elements of the power grid were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson and Sumy, and power outages were reported across most of the country.

At least 28 civilians were killed and 76 wounded in last night’s strikes. Reports from first responders are still coming in.

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

The Ukrainian Energy Ministry implemented rolling blackout across Ukraine as they worked to deal with damage to the energy grid. Damage was also reported on elements of the rail system, and several stations in Kharkiv were also struck.

Strikes on electric grid substations have forced the Khmelnitskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants to run at reduced output since November 7th.

Ukrainian forces struck “Russian military targets” inside Russia (no further details given) with 4 x ATACMS missiles yesterday, hitting a target near Voronezh (north-east of Ukraine), about 124 miles inside Russia. Russian MOD spokesman claimed the 4 missiles were shot down. The Block 1 missiles originally provided to Ukraine had a range of 100 miles. The longer range version has a range of 190 miles.

During the night of November 17th-November 18th Russian forces launched at least 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 114 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 101 drones. 

Damage was reported in  Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk.

At least 5 civilians were killed and 13 wounded in last night’s strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov18 Nov19

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 64.24 63.09

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 60.02 58.99

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.35 4.53

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.60 5.52

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 81.02 80.62

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.09 42.10

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.94 54.58

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 65.70 61.93

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.46 61.34

Thoughts

While the politics and sabotage in Poland garner more attention, and missile and drone strikes damage the power grid, the fight on the ground grinds on. Ukrainian forces have had some success both around Kupyansk, and north of Pokrovsk, and near Orikhiv. But the key fights are the Pokrovsk pocket and Hulyaipole, both of which are still slow grinds, but would appear to favor the Russians.

There is a debate among various analysts as to what precisely the Russians are trying to do around Pokrovsk: close the mouth of the pocket and complete the encirclement, or simply press into the pocket head on and engage the Ukrainians. Perhaps they are doing a little of both. The Russian premise since late 2022 is to not attempt high risk maneuvers, to move slowly (very slowly) and try to inflict casualties. Leaving pockets open in other situations during the past 3 years has led to Ukrainian forces to continue to feed the pocket. That may be the point here: let Ukrainian reinforcements continue to move into the pocket while Russian forces continue to inflict casualties.

As for Hulyaipole, the rather rapid (for the Russians) push west appears to be threatening the logistics lines in Hulyaipole and the advance from the north-east of that city is already behind the local defensive positions. This has the potential of a Russian advance to the city (Hulyaipole) substantially faster than expected.

v/r pete