November 13th, 2025

Politics - G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Niagara Falls, discuss aid to Ukraine

- European Commission announces 6 billion Euros in aid

Combat Ops - Russian gains in Pokrovsk and in southern Ukraine

- Damage assessment form weekend strike, damage to power grid

Weather

Kharkiv

44 and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy for the next week, rain every day beginning Monday. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

45 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow morning, then clearing, mostly sunny through Saturday, then cloudy weather returns. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the low 50s.  Winds variable, 5kts.

Kyiv

39 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy for the next week, light rain on Saturday. Daily lows in the 30s, Sunday morning could see a dip below freezing, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics 

SecState Rubio met with Ukrainian ForMin Sybiha and G7 foreign ministers in Niagara Falls, Ontario, to discuss ways to help Ukraine, and how to end the war.

EU Foreign Policy director Kallas commented that the talks focused on increasing pressure on Russia “in order to make them have peace. They [USA] have had engagements [with Russia] and we have all welcomed their engagements … But to be very, very frank … their assessment is that Russia has no way changed its goals so it’s not genuine about the peace talks.”

The EU announced a 6 billion euros ($6.9 billion) budget line to support Ukraine.

EC President von der Leyen commented:

”We must continue to raise the cost of war for Russia, also because the scars are becoming more and more obvious and visible in the Russian economy by now."

"We will disburse today almost €6 billion under the ERA Loan and the Ukraine Facility to Ukraine. And this is why I very much welcome the European Council's very clear commitment… to cover Ukraine's financial needs for the next two years.”

Grond Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no changes to the front lines.

North of Kharkiv imagery confirmed that both Ukrainian and Russian forces had  gains over the last several days, with Ukrainian forces occupying a position in south-west Vovchansk, at a site previously held by Russian forces, while Russian forces probed into an adjacent area of south-west Vovchansk.

In the border area just north of the Oskil River, Russian forces appear to have made marginal gains in the immediate area of the town of Ambarne.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk but there were no confirmed changes to the front line. However, various blogger sites, to include some fairly authoritative sites (they have support from the Ukrainian government), offer different views of what is happening and suggest some Russian gains in the city east of the P-79 roadway. Reporting also suggests more Russian strikes on Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOC) to include dropping several bridges.

Further south, to the Donets, there were no confirmed changes to the front line. There is, however, a good deal of reporting of fighting along the front lines from the Zherebets River, past Lyman, and to the Nitrius River and unconfirmed reports suggest some Russian gains in this area.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North and north-east of Bakhmut there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.  

South-west of Chasiv Yar, north-west of Torestk, imagery confirmed Russian gains in Ivanopillia as well as Russian recon probes into south-eastern Kostiantinivka.

West of Torestk (north-east of Pokrovsk, beyond the Pokrovsk pocket), fighting continues in the Shakhove and Nove Shakhove area, as well as near Dorozhnie area but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

In the Pokrovsk area, imagery confirmed Russian gains in northern Pokrovsk, and reporting suggests Russian gains both south-east of Pokrovsk as well as north-east of Pokrovsk, in Rodynske. However, Ukrainian forces continue to hold position inside Pokrovsk, as well as continuing to hold the bulk of Myrnohrad. Ukrainian forces report that logistics support is still getting through despite Russian forces now sitting astride or next to the various large and small GLOCs that run in the scattered holdings in Pokrovsk as well as into Myrnohrad. The mouth of the pocket is now just 3,000 meters across, placing any logistic support in, or effort to withdraw to the west, under direct fire from both Pokrovsk and Rodynske.

South-west of Pokrovsk, from the Vovcha River north to the Dnipropetrovsk - Donetsk oblast border, fighting continues but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces continue to press westward along the Yehorivka - Solodke - Rivnopillia line (north-east of Hulyaipole). There were no confirmed gains yesterday, but multiple blogger reports are consistent in suggesting that Russian forces now occupy these towns. Russia tacair strikes - FAB 500 glide bombs - were conducted against the ground line of communication north of Hulyaipole, along the T0401 roadway. The road here is flat, with a few gradual turns, no bridges or culverts - not a lucrative target unless there was a piece of gear that they were striking, not the road.

Russian forces have been confirmed to have reached Rivnopillia, and it would seem only a matter of days before they have control of that town, if they don’t already have it. From Rivnopillia it is a bit over 5 miles to Hulyaipole, over mainly flat farmland and two small rivers; as Russian forces press south-west, the only Ukrainian prepared defensive lines are on their left - to the south-east, with only a few small defensive positions just north-east of the town, and easily avoided, seemingly making the loss of Hulyaipole a likelihood in the near term.

Fighting continues along the east bank of the Dnepr River in southern Prymorske, and in southern Stepnohirsk; there are claims of Russian gains but there is no confirmed change to the front line.

Fighting was again reported near the Antonovskiy Bridge, up river from Kherson city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 12th-November 13th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 138 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 102 drones. The ballistic missile was not intercepted, and appears to have struck a target in the Odessa area.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa  Sumy oblasts.

Casualties reports include at least 2 civilians killed and 5 wounded in drones and missile strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 2 towns.

Ukrainian drones struck a petrochemical plant in Budyonnovsk (about half way between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, about 120 miles north of Georgia) during the night of November 11th-12th and a fire was confirmed in the area, though there is no independent damage assessment.

During the night of November 11th-November 12th Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile (type unknown) and 121 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW,  90 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa,  and Sumy oblasts.

Casualties reports have not been released for the day.

RuAF tacair struck 3 towns.

Damage assessment on the November 7th-November 8th drone and missile strike - which include 450 drones and 45 missiles (including 32 ballistic missiles) indicates that Centrenergo, one of the Ukrainian state-owned energy companies, has lost all of its energy generation capacity. The company had 3 thermal power plants before the war, one is in occupied Ukraine, the other two had been damaged in 2024, but repaired. On the night of the 7th both (Zmiivska in Kharkiv Oblast (2,200 MW) and Trypillia in Kyiv Oblast (1,800 MW)) were effectively destroyed.

The government announced that repair work has started but the people at the sites suggested that repairs are going to be difficult.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov12 Nov13

Brent      94.71    70.44 66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 63.17 63.35

WTI     92.10    68.65 64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 58.98 59.07

NG       3.97         3.35 3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.54 4.54

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.34 5.34

Ruble     85          78.47 79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 81.09 80.70

Hryvnia 28.6 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.07 42.00

Urals 91.66 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 55.69 53.02

ESPO 94.52 71.58 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 62.87 62.87

Sokol 99.31 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 62.06 59.76

Thoughts

A recent newspaper article cites “Western Intelligence” sources that suggest that the Russian army has suffered 350,000 casualties - killed and wounded - since the start of the war.

One clarifying point: in both armies, Russia’s and Ukraine’s, the wounded number  that counts are those that do not return to duty. Both sides suggest that number is about 30% of the total number wounded. So, without getting too precise, as the numbers are, in fact, all a but fuzzy, it works out to something like this: for each killed in action (KIA) there are 3 Wounded (WIA), of the three WIA, 2 return to duty, one does not. This make KIA and Seriously Wounded about equal; if you have 10 KIA, you probably have 10 seriously wounded.

So, as for the number above, that number is consistent with other reporting that has consistently tracked Russian casualties throughout the war, and now places Russian KIAs between 145,000 and 219,000. Using the 1 for 1 ratio for seriously wounded, that would suggest 145,000 to 219,000 seriously wounded, and total casualties between 290,000 and 438,000. As you can see, 350,000 falls fairly close to halfway between the two, and is, it would seem, a credible number.

As for Ukrainian losses, there still are no hard numbers, but the fact that there had been 100,000 war-related amputees in Ukraine - military and civilian - as of last winter, with almost 14,000 civilians killed, and 36,000 wounded, and certainly fewer than 1/3rd of civilian wounded as amputees, that leaves 90,000 war related amputees in the army, as of last winter, or 2,500 per month, which would push the current total to perhaps 110,000.

Assuming that there are two KIA for each amputee (3 or more is more probable) drives the Ukrainian KIA count to more than 200,000 as well, leaving both sides with essentially the same casualty count, remembering that Russia has almost five times a many people as Ukraine.

v/r pete