July 31st 2025
Politics - Trump Clarifies: 8 August
- India suspends purchase of Russian oil
Combat Ops - Air strikes: many casualties in Kyiv
- Chasiv Yar falls to Russians?
Weather
Kharkiv
84 and partly cloudy, winds gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next 5 days, except for Saturday, which will be sunny, but rain on Monday. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
44 and sunny, winds gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through Saturday, then 2 days of thunderstorms and showers, sunny again on Tuesday. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs near 90. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
73 and mostly cloudy. Sunny or mostly sunny through Tuesday. Daily lows around 60, highs in the upper 70s to low 80. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.
Politics
President Trump provided further clarification on his “8 - 10 days” deadline, saying that the deadline is now August 8th, and then commented that he has not received any reply from President Putin. Trump has made it clear that he intends to levy high tariffs and secondary tariffs and sanctions (tariffs, etc. on countries that trade with Russia) if Putin does not agree to sanctions.
As I noted yesterday, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India for all trade associated with Russia.
The Republic of Korea joined the list of countries arriving at new trade arrangements with the US; I would suspect the Indian government is working out how to make their own arrangements with Washington, which would, of course, deprive Russia of another customer for their oil.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that the US is not going to completely decouple from China, but will “strategically decouple,” to protect US national security and key industrial sectors. This would suggest US would retain a good deal of leverage with China and perhaps be ablate pressure China to, if not completely end the purchase of Russian oil and gas, to sail it back somewhat.
Trump added this on India this afternoon:
I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let's keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he's still President, to watch his words. He's entering very dangerous
territory!
Meanwhile, India “heard” Trump; Reuters reports that in the last few hours India has changed course: Indian state-owned refiners Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd (MRPL), Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL) have halted purchases of Russian oil and are Turing to international spot markets to fill their bunkers.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting continues north of Sumy city, north of Kharkiv city, and at several points along the border, but there were no changes noted in any of the front lines.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting continues along most of the line of contact but with few changes noted; the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported troops in contact on the north-east edge of Kupyansk.
Imagery confirmed Russian gains just east of the Nitrius River, just north of the town of Shandryholove. Russian forces appear to have pushed down across open farmland, and have reached the edge of some woods just north of the town, which is where the contact is reported. The town had a population of just over a thousand before the war started; it was occupied by the Russian forces early in the war and was then recaptured but Ukrainian forces later in 2022.
BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK
Fighting continues just east and north-east of Siversk, and Ukrainian forces report Russian artillery and tacair strikes on the increase, but there was no confirmed change in the last 24 hours.
There were no confirmed changes in the Chasiv Yar area though there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have cut another ground line of communication (GLOC) into the Chasiv Yar area. This may be a result of Russian forces repositioning some drone assets and bringing the GLOCs under more concentrated drones and artillery coverage.
However, as early afternoon Kyiv time, Moscow is claiming that they have established full control over all of Chasiv Yar.
There were no reported changes in the Toretsk area or immediately west of Toretsk.
Fighting was reported north-east and east of Pokrovsk, as well as west and south-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.
Just south-east of Pokrovsk (in Lysivka - about 3 miles from Pokrovsk) imagery showed Ukrainian forces pushing into the northern edge of that town.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
South of the Vovcha River imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces have pushed back into Maliivka, retaking some land that had been lost over the past week, and may have control of the town. Maliivka was a small farming village of perhaps 30 houses along a stretch of a tributary of the Vorona River, a town of 161 before the war started.
There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces raided across the Dnepr River and pushed Ukrainian elements out of their positions near the western (northern) end of the Antonovsky bridge, about 5 miles up river from down-town Kherson.
Air Operations
During the night of July 30th - 31sr Russian forces launched 8 x Iskander K cruise missiles and 309 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed 288 drones were shot down or defeated by EW; 3 cruise missiles were also shot down. Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
RuAF tacair struck 2 Ukrainian towns.
So far, 15 killed and 145 wounded in Kyiv as a result of today’s drone strikes (as of 1300 EDT); also, 1 killed and 11 wounded in Kramatorsk.
During the night of July 29th - 30th Russian forces launched 78 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed 51 drones were shot down or defeated by EW.
Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhia oblasts.
RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Jul30 Jul31
Brent 94.71 120.90 75.58 61.93 66.80 70.44 72.79 72.83
WTI 92.10 119.50 71.29 59.00 64.89 68.65 69.53 69.66
NG 3.97 8.41 2.15 3.64 3.69 3.35 3.03 3.04
Wheat 8.52 10.71 6.17 5.34 5.49 5.49 5.29 5.23
Ruble 85 58.48 82.59 82.45 79.27 78.47 81.06 79.90
Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.73 41.67
Urals 56.56 54.13 60.84 64.07 66.96 68.64
ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 74.61 75.34
Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 68.57 69.16
Per Reuters, oil prices appear to have topped out for the immediate future, said to be a result of oil investors considering the probability of President Trump getting some sort of ceasefire in Ukraine.
"The market front-runs the implications of President Trump's announcements before remembering that these policy intentions can turn on a dime if he can strike a deal," said Harry Tchiliguirian at Onyx Capital Group. "We're seeing a re-evaluation until there is more clarity."
"U.S. inventory data showed a surprise build in crude stocks, but a bigger than expected gasoline draw supported the view of strong driving season demand, resulting in neutral impact on the oil market," said Fujitomi Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa.
Locust are said to threaten this year’s sunflower crop in Ukraine due to a reduced ability to spread pesticides as a result of the war.
Thoughts
Assuming it is accurate, the fall of Chasiv Yar marks the end of a long and brutal grind, one that cost both sides thousands of killed and tens of thousand wounded. When added with the fight for Bakhmut, the number dead is well in excess of 10,000 on each side. It was at Bakhmut that the Russians first made it clear that the prime goal of the Russian army was not land, but the inflicting of casualties on the Ukrainian army.
Meanwhile, the Indian suspension of purchase of Russian oil perhaps marks another, different inflection point in the war. Only China remains as a major purchaser of Russian oil. President Trump is working on a comprehensive trade deal with China right now.
And, as the Secretary of the Treasure noted, the US is not going to completely decouple from China - thus, it will be to China’s benefit to cooperate with President Trump.
Said differently, President Putin may finally find out what it is to be economically isolated.
v/r pete