March 6th, 2026

Politics - Tensions continue to rise between Ukraine and Hungary

- 300 POWs exchanged

Combat Ops - Ukrainian and Russian gains in southern Ukraine

Weather

Warmer weather  continues, thawing continues, mud season has arrived.

Kharkiv

36 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, then a week of sunny weather. Daily lows around freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

43 and mostly. Partly cloudy through the weekend, then a week of sunny weather. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

36 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows for the next week at or just below freezing, daily highs in the 40s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Russia and Ukraine completed the agreed POW exchange with each returning 300 POWs this morning through Belarus.

Tensions continue to mount between Hungary and Ukraine over the Druzhba oil pipeline, and continue to slowly spread into other issues.

Thursday morning Hungarian authorities arrested 7 employees who were transporting $80 million in cash and 9kg of gold (about 275 ounces of gold ($1.4 million)). Ukraine’s Oschadbank stated that they were performing a routine service between banks in Austria and Ukraine. The Hungarian government says that the men are being expelled. The money has not been forwarded to Ukraine yet.

Ukrainian foreign Minister Sybil commented:

Today in Budapest, Hungarian authorities took seven Ukrainian citizens hostage. The reasons are still unknown, as well as their current well-being, or the possibility of contacting them. These seven Ukrainians are employees of state-owned Oschadbank, who were operating two bank cars transiting between Austria and Ukraine and carrying cash as part of regular services between state banks. In fact, we are talking about Hungary taking hostages and stealing money. If this is the “force” announced earlier today by Mr Orban, then this is a force of a criminal gang. This is state terrorism and racketeering. We have already sent an official note demanding an immediate release of our citizens. We will also address the European Union with the request to provide a clear qualification of Hungary’s unlawful actions, hostage-taking, and robbery.

President Putin signed a decree raising total Russian end strength to 2,391,770 with 1,502,640 uniformed personnel, a growth of only 2,640 for 2026. Overall Russian uniformed end strength has grown from 1,013,000 since 2021.

Ground Operations

Overall, ground operations continue but with few changes. The one area of change is in southern Ukraine where the moderately sized Ukrainian counter-offensive begun in February pushed further south-east over the last few days, while further south, Russian forces in and around Hulyaipole pushed further west.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no confirmed charges to the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and east along the border, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area in the terrain north-east and east of Borova, but there were no confirmed changes to the line.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north of Bakhmut, but there were no confirmed changes in the line. There are Russian claims of Russian gains around Yarova, west of Dobrysheve (about 12 miles north of Slovyansk), and this is plausible, but unconfirmed.

There are multiple reports of fighting east and south-east of Kostiantinivka and imagery confirmed at least two separate areas where Ukrainian forces regained positions just east of the city, pushing along the Kryvyi Torets River along the south edge of Ivanopillia, as well as in the fields just south of the city, essentially moving into “no man’s land” in front of Russian positions.

Fighting continues north and west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the line. Of note, there has been no report of fighting inside Pokrovsk for perhaps a week and it appears that Russian forces have successfully cleared Pokrovsk and the cities and towns just east and north-east of that city of the remaining Ukrainian elements. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Ukrainian forces continued to grind out gains north of Hulyaipole, pushing south-east from Verbove perhaps 2.5 miles over the last few days, and would appear to have reached a line from Berzove to Rybne.

Further south, Russian forces appear to have gained ground west of Hulyaipole, pushing forward about 1.5 miles, as well as pushing north from Myrne a similar distance and have occupied more than half of the pocket west of Hulyaipole.

Fighting was again reported near the Antonovsky bridge, just upriver from Kherson, but there were, as usual, no details.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of March 5th-March 6th Russian forces launched at least 141 x  strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 111 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 11 towns.

During the night of March 4th-March 5th Russian forces launched at least 155 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 136 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Odessa oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

No Civilian casualties reported

RuAF tacair struck 14 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar5 Mar6

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 83.68 91.47

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 77.43 89.00

NG       3.97       3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 2.96 3.11

Wheat      8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.73 6.13

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 78.63 78.94

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.63 43.67

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 70.31 71.07

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 72.90 75.40

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 73.78 75.98

Prices still moving higher. Murban crude, UAE crude that loads at Fujairah, just outside of the Strait of Hormuz, traded at 100.25 per barrel this morning.

Thoughts

Fighting continues but just the simple movement of rifle teams to infiltrate enemy positions is hampered by the mud and everything has slowed. Next week is supposed to be sunny over most of Ukraine and may begin to dry out some of the terrain, though rains normally follow in April.

As for the Ukrainian push south-east from the area of Verbove (southern Ukraine) it appears that Ukrainian forces just east of Rybne are now in the general area of the Russian fixed defensive lines, built by Russian engineers in the last 6 months. That isn’t definitive as finding imagery that shows the new (less than a year old) defensive lines is difficult, and establishing exactly where the Ukrainian forces are is also difficult. 

In any case, assuming the Ukrainian brigades (2 or 3 brigades) are now in the vicinity of the Russian defensive positions, which are normally very capable, they now face the task of continuing to apply pressure, and doing so during mud season.

It is also worth noting that the Russian forces continue to push forward from Hulyaipole and there does not appear to be any high degree of worry about this Ukrainian offensive just a dozen miles away.

v/r pete 

 March 5th, 2026

Politics - 200 POWs exchanged

- Hungary - Ukraine: pipeline friction

Combat Ops - Little movement on ground

- Action at sea, 1 ship sunk, several naval units damaged 

Weather

Warmer weather  continues, thawing continues, mud season arriving.

Kharkiv

38 and cloudy gusting to 20. Snow tonight. Cloudy Friday and Saturday, then 5 days of partly to mostly sunny weather. Daily lows around freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

45 and sunny, gusting over 20. Cloudy Friday, but then clouds will break, mostly sunny all next week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the 40s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

35 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Snow showers possible tonight.  Cloudy until Saturday morning then mostly sunny for 5 days. Daily lows for the next week at or just below freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday, then 5 days with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

During the last round of talks, Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams agreed on a. 500 for 500 POW exchange. The morning, both sides exchanged 200 POWs, the seconds exchange of 2026. The first exchange, on February 5th, inlaced 157 POWs from each side.

The issue of the Druzhba pipeline and Russian natural gas supplies to Hungary (and by extension Slovakia) continues to fester. Oil flow terminated on January 27th filling a drone strike on the pipe. Yesterday both PM Orban of Hungary and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine had comments on the situation:

PM Orban:

"We will win. And we will win by force. We have political and financial tools, and with these we will compel them, unconditionally and preferably as soon as possible, to reopen the Friendship oil pipeline.

I want to make it clear that we will win here, and we will win by force. So I will make no pact; there will be no compromise. We will defeat them. We will break the oil blockade. We will force the Ukrainian to restart deliveries. Not through business, not through agreement, not through compromise, but by force."

President Zelenskyy:

"To be honest, I wouldn't repair it [Druzhba]. This is my position. I've said this to European leaders, and I've said it to people who have called me about this issue and to the EU leadership as well – because this is Russian oil."

“”They [Russians” are killing Ukrainians, yet we're supposed to give oil to Orbán because, poor thing, he can't win the elections without this oil.”

Serhii Koretskyi, CEO of Naftogaz Group, has estimated it would take “one-and-a-half months to repair the pipeline.

Zelenskyy again:

"We can provide information that resumption may be possible within these one and a half months… But this does not mean that everything that was destroyed will be repaired, and some things can be done in parallel.”

Orban is blocking a 90 billion euro ($106 billion) loan from the EU unless Ukraine repairs the pipeline. Zelenskyy commented:

"And I have asked for this to be official as well, so that no one says we are inventing things or preventing anyone from doing anything. So we are waiting for an official request. I think it will certainly come in one format or another.”

Followed with this comment:

"We hope that a certain person in the European Union will not block the €90 billion, or the first tranche from the €90 billion, and our defenders will have weapons. Otherwise, we will give that person's address to our Armed Forces, to our lads, so they can call him on the phone and speak to him in their own language."

President Putin of Russia meanwhile commented on simply ending all gas sales to Europe.

"They plan to introduce restrictions on the purchase of Russian gas, including liquefied, in a month, and in a year, in 2027, new restrictions, up to a complete ban. And now other markets are opening. And, perhaps, it is more profitable for us to stop supplies to the European market right now. Go to those markets that are opening and gain a foothold there… This is not a decision yet, but thoughts out loud.”

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv City, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines in either area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area and east and north-east of Borova, but there were no confirmed changes tot eh front lines.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, fighting continues but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

There were no changes in the lines in and around Kostiantinivka.

Further west, imagery confirmed Russian gains east of Sofiivka, and Russian forces appear to be pushing slowly northward along the small Poltavka River and the string of reservoirs and ponds on that river. This line will become very difficult very soon, as the weather continues above freezing.

Fighting continues west and north-west of Pokrovsk, as Russian forces continue to probe into Hryshyne, and are now operating from the north, east and south side of the town, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed that a Ukrainian probe has pushed eastward along the T0814 roadway, past Zaliznychne and reached Hulyaipole. It isn’t clear what sized element made this raid, but it is unreported on some sites and noted on others, suggesting it is a small element.

Imagery confirmed multiple Russian probes west of Zaliznychne and in Rizdvyanka, but it is isn’t clear whether there were any changes in the lines.

There were multiple reports of Russian attacks along the lines westward to the Dnepr River, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of March 4th-March 5th Russian forces launched at least 155 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 136 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv and Odessa, oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

No Civilian casualties reported

RuAF tacair struck 11 towns.

During the night of March 3rd-March 4th Russian forces launched at least 3 x ballistic missiles (type not identified) and 149 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 129 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy oblasts; ballistic missiles struck in Dnipro city, Voznesensk, Mykolaiv, and in southern Odessa.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

Between March 1st and March 4th Russian forces have conducted 18 strikes on Ukrainian rail, damaging 17 stock cars and 34 other pieces of repair equipment.

A Russian LNG tanker - Arctic Metagaz, out of Murmansk, was struck by two unmanned surface vessels (USV) in international waters about 150 south-east of Cape Passero, Malta, 250 miles north-east of Tripoli. and has since sunk. The tanker was reportedly headed to Port Said, Egypt for offloading, but Egyptian authorities deny this. The cargo consisted of 62,000 tons of LNG. 

All 30 crew members have been evacuated from the ship. The USVs were reportedly launched from Libya.

During the night of March 1st-March 2nd Ukrainian drones struck the Admiral Grgorivich class frigate Admiral Essen, in Novorossiysk harbor, as well as an Kvamarin class patrol boat, a Nastya class minesweeper and two Grisha V class ASW corvettes.

The strike reportedly involved more than 200 drones.

Earlier today Russian drones struck a Panamanian flagged ship departing Chornomorsk (just south of Odessa), outbound with a load of corn. Three crew members were injured and have been evacuated. The ship, which appears to be (they aren’t releasing the name) “Sapphire X,” is currently anchored off Chornomorsk but is now scheduled to put into Romania, apparently for repairs.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar4 Mar5

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 81.28 83.68

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 74.24 77.43

NG       3.97       3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 2.95 2.96

Wheat      8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.67 5.73

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.78 78.63

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.90 43.63

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 68.83 70.31

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 72.90 72.90

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 73.87 73.78

Note the ESPO and Sokol prices, which are Eastern Asia markets.

Jun 16, 2025 was the last time Urals oil was above 70.

Thoughts

As is evident, ground operations have slowed down a great deal, and most, if not all of that reduction in activity a result of the start of the thaw. It will now be anywhere for 6 weeks (last week or two of April) to as late as late May before the ground is solid enough for movement off the roads, weather dependent.

In the interim, expect both sides will engage in drone strikes, both deep strikes and in the use of FPV drones for strikes immediately behind the front line.

Russia will benefit economically as long as the Strait of Hormuz is constricted by war and high insurance rates. Even after the Strait returns to normal operations, China still must compensate for the 1.3 - 1.4 million barrels per day it was buying (at bargain prices) from Iran. 

Whether Russia benefits from China feeling squeezed because it - China - has one less friend in the world remains to be seen. 

As for President Zelenskyy’s comment about his soldiers making a call on PM Orban seems an odd way to make friends… 

v/r pete