March 4th, 2026

Politics - Chancellor Merz talks with President Trump

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Strikes continue, focus on transportation infrastructure

Economics - Oil prices still climbing 

Weather

Warmer weather (above freezing) continues, thawing will begin, ground softens, rivers will start to fill; trucks forced onto roads, making targeting easier and moving troops and logistics more difficult.

Kharkiv

34 and cloudy gusting to 20. Snow tomorrow afternoon, cloudy Friday and then gradual clearing over the following several days. Daily lows around freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

36 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy Friday, but otherwise mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

42 and clear. Cloudy Thursday and Friday and then mostly sunny weather for most of next week. Daily lows for the next week at or just below freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday, then 5 days with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Chancellor Merz after meetings in Washington with president Trump:

"I leave Washington with the strong impression that the U.S. admin clearly understands what is at stake in Ukraine, and that this country cannot make further territorial concessions beyond those areas already militarily occupied by Russia — and no more”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city and north of Kharkiv City, but there were no confirmed charges to the front lines.

There is a report that Russian forces have pushed across the border and into the village (actually just a single large farm) of Bobylivka (about 55 miles north-north-west of Sumy city), but this has not been confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces continued probes along essentially the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact, and there were several instances of confirmed gains by both sides.

North of Bakhmut, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk  general area, imagery confirmed Russian gains in Dobrysheve (about 12 miles north-north-east of Slovyansk), pushing into the center of that town. Dobrysheve (pre-war population of 2,500) was mainly a “bedroom” community supporting the local farming. 

Further to the south-east, imagery confirms Russian troops in Fedorivka Druha (about 10 miles south-east of Slovyansk), a very small village (pre-war population of 64) west of Nykyforivka. Imagery does not show the Russians control the area, only that they have pushed into the town, but this would mean that the Ukrainian force that was east of the town (between Fedorivka Druha and Nykyforivka) has been forced to withdraw.

Fighting continues in and around the east end of Kostiantinivka, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines.

Further west, fighting continues west and north of Pokrovsk and there are no "confirmed in imagery” changes to the front lines.

However, Ukrainian reporting continues to show slow movement of the front line westward and there is no more reporting of any engagement inside Pokrovsk, implying, obviously, that the last Ukrainian elements have been cleared from the ruins. 

In addition, and again, not yet confirmed by imagery, reporting suggests some slow Russian gains northwest into eastern and now central Hryshyne.

Fighting continues to the south-west, and imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces in the area of Novomykolaivka (about 12 miles south-west of Pokrovsk, along the Solona River), have pushed about a mile south-east into Russian lines. Fighting continues inside Novomykolaivka itself, with the town split fairly evenly in two.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting contains along most of the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes to line.

Russian forces are again probing into Ukrainian terrain in the area of the February counter-offensive, and trying to read between the various reports it would seem that the Ukrainian forces have not made any gains in the small counter offensive north of Hulyaipole since last Monday (the 23rd).

Further west, along the Dnepr River, imagery confirmed a Russian recon element had probed into Veselyanka, about 7 miles north of Kamyanske, and about 9 miles south-east of the center of Zaporizhzhia city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of March 3rd-March 4th Russian forces launched at least 2 x ballistic missiles (type not identified) and 149 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 129 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy oblasts; ballistic missiles struck in Dnipro city, and Voznesensk, Mykolaiv.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

During the night of March 2nd-March 3rd Russian forces launched at least 136 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 127 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Poltava oblasts. 

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities, with power outages in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, and oblasts

Civilian casualties include at least  civilians were 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar3 Mar4

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 82.76 81.28

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 75.73 74.24

NG       3.97       3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.10 2.95

Wheat      8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.82 5.67

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.50 77.78

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.57 43.90

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 62.52 68.83

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 69.24 72.90

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 72.54 73.87

Note the ESPO and Sokol prices, which are Eastern Asia markets.

The Ukrainian government reported that in January the average Ukrainian salary dropped to 29,975 hryvnia ($651) per month, a decrease of 9.5% from December. 

Thoughts

The fighting appears to have slowed just a bit; Russian probes continue though it seems somewhat less aggressive, and again, I would lay it at the feet of the warmer weather which brings mud season to Ukraine.

It is of note that comparing the various disposition maps that are found on line, there has been very little change in the last 2 weeks except in the area about 20 mile north of Hulyaipole, where the Ukrainian counteroffensive - which appears to have consisted of no more than 2 brigades, hasn’t changed in a week; and in the very slow forward movement of Russian forces just north and west of Pokrovsk, around Kostiantinivka, and east of Slovyansk.

All said, it seems that mud season is here AND the Russian slow grind, war of attrition continues.

It is also of note that the overall amount of reporting has dropped off as news agencies shutlet assets to cover the war in the Gulf and Russia - Ukraine falls out of the scan.

By the way, a correction! As was pointed out by one of my eagle-eyed correspondents, I referenced Field Marshal Clausewitz yesterday, but Clausewitz’s highest rank was major general! And I suspect no Prussian would accept a promotion from me!

v/r pete 

 March 3rd, 2026

Politics - Zelenskyy - next meeting on 5th or 6th, but not clear where

- Zelenskyy - concerns about air defense missiles given war in Gulf

- Power grid improving 

Combat Ops - Small changes in central and southern sections of front

- Zelenskyy - Russian strikes to target water system

Weather

Warmer weather (above freezing) continues, thawing will begin, ground softens, rivers will start to fill; trucks forced onto roads, making targeting easier and moving troops and logistics more difficult.

Kharkiv

37 and cloudy gusting to 20. Cloudy all week and into the weekend. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

39 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy into Saturday, and then some sun. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

35 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy through Saturday morning, then several days of party cloudy weather. Daily lows through the weekend will be around freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to 40s. Wind chills will still be in the 20s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy commented on the next round of talks, scheduled for Thursday or Friday (March 5th or 6th):

"It may not take place in Abu Dhabi. I would prefer it to take place in Geneva or in any other city in Europe, because the war is taking place on our continent. If Russia wants a neutral place, then Austria, the Vatican or Turkey would be suitable.”

Zelenskyy also commented on the issue of number of air defense weapons, particularly Patriot missiles, and the possible difficulty in finding more as the war continues in the Persian Gulf.

"It may be difficult for us to find missiles and weapons to protect our skies. The Americans and their allies in the Middle East may need them for defense, for example, with the help of anti-Patriot missiles. We are resorting to the PURL program to buy American weapons for European funds: perhaps the Americans will need them, like last year.”

Energy Minister Shmyhal commented on the improving power grid in Ukraine:

"As of today, the deficit is 1 GW, which is five to six times less than it was in winter. This naturally means a reduction in the number of queues for domestic consumers and slightly less burdensome [power outage] schedules for businesses."

In February Ukraine imported 41% mire electricity than it had in January.

Ground Operations

There are still many reports of Russian probes and Ukrainian counter-probes but it appears that movement has become a bit more difficult - probably as a result of the thaw and the mud and there are only a few areas, mainly in the south, where there are confirmed changes in the line.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting was reported in multiple locations across this area but there were no confirmed changes to the lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued along much of the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes to the line.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces still holding ground west of Russian forces in the area between Nykyforivka and Lypivka (both held by Russian forces) and Fedorivka Druha (held by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces appear to be sitting astride the  road from Nykyforivka through Fedorivka Druha to the M03 roadway. North of the road are several large, well manicured pieces of farmland, but the road runs over some lightly broken up terrain, between two tree lines.

Imagery also confirmed Russian probes into Lyman but there were no changes in the line in that area.

Russian reports claim Russian control of Dobrysheve (about 4 miles north-west of Lyman), but this has not been confirmed.

Ukrainian reporting suggests Russian gains about 4 miles north of Chasiv Yar, pushing into the east side of the town of Markove.

Fighting continues north-east, east, south-east and south of Kostiantinivka, as well as in the south-east quarter of the city. There are Russian reports of Russian gains pushing into the city from the south and south-west but these have not been confirmed.

Further west, Ukrainian reporting notes Russian east and south-east of Dobrypillia, with Russian forces pushing into southern Bilytske.

Fighting continues north and north-west of Pokrovsk, and around Hryshyne, but there were no confirmed changes in the line here or further to the west and south-west.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues north of Hulyaipole in the Verbove - Rybne - Dobrypillia line, but it isn't clear whether Ukrainian forces made any more gains in their counter-offensive. Different reporting streams have different takes on the line, and some of the differences are stark, and some that are very pro Ukrainian suggest Russian forces have regained some of the land the Ukrainians recovered in this counter-offensive, while others suggest the Ukrainian units keep pushing south and south-east. This will take several days of clear air and good imagery to sort out.

Around Hulyaipole, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces pushing west from Hirke, and there are Ukrainian reports that the Russian do not hold any part of Zaliynychne.

Further west, along the Dnepr, Russian probes were reported inside central Prymorske, but there is no confirmed change in the line intros area.

Air and Maritime Operations

President Zelenskyy commented that Russia is going to add water systems and logistics infrastructure to their target set for their missile and drone strikes as spring arrives.

During the night of March 2nd-March 3rd Russian forces launched at least 136 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 127 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Poltava oblasts. 

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities. 

Civilian casualties include at least  civilians were 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

During the night of March 1st-March 2nd Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 94 strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 84 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. 

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities, and power outages were reported in Donetsk, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia. The ballistic missile landed in Mykolaiv.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians were killed and 1 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Albashneft Oil Refinery in Novominskaya, Krasnodar Krai (about 30 miles south pf the eastern tip of the Sea of Azov) during the night of February 27th-February 28th. The UGS claimed they destroyed 4 storage tanks and other tanks and damaged a pipeline and other tanks butt he results have not been confirmed.

Gen. Syrskyi passed an interesting statistic on Facebook: Ukrainian interceptor drones took part in the intercept of 70% of Russian strike drones during February.

"Despite the significant deterioration of weather conditions and the shortage of means of destruction, in February we did not allow a decrease in the indicators of "small air defense.” Over the past month, our interceptor drones carried out about 6,300 sorties, destroying more than one and a half thousand Russian UAVs of various types.”

"We are working with manufacturers to increase the effectiveness of the use of various models of interceptor drones. We continue to form and train the crews of these UAVs. We are equipping air defense divisions with unmanned systems.”

6,300 launches, and 1,500 intercepts, 23.8% 

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar2 Mar3

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 79.50 82.76

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 72.88 75.73

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.04 3.10

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.91 5.82

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.44 77.50

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.36 43.57

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 58.94 62.52

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 64.98 69.24

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 71.24 72.54

Maritime insurers have announced they will cancel war risk insurance for the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, effective Friday March 5th. Almost certainly they will then issue new war risk insurance at a much higher rate. All this will push oil prices higher.

Thoughts

Two thoughts; first, oil. China is currently consuming around 16.5 million barrels of oil per day (MBPD), with a domestic consumption of 4.3 MBPD. So, they need to import 12.3 MBPD. 

A few months ago China was importing 1.3MBPD from Iran and just short of 400,000 BPD from Venezuela. So, China now faces a shortfall of 1.7MBPD.

That said, China has an estimated 401 million barrels of oil in there designated strategic oil reserves and an additional 668 million barrels in commercial reserves.

So, it would seem that they can handle a cut-off of oil from Iran for some time.

But, China is importing another 3.8 million barrels per day from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar - that is, from the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. 

That represents, at least for the short term, a loss of 5.5 MBPD, 1/3rd of their daily national demand. There are several hundred million barrels of oil sitting in ships at anchor at several key anchorage (just outside of Singapore, for example). But those prices are rising quickly. 

It isn’t clear that Russia will make a windfall, but this certainly strengthens Russia’s hand in getting someone to buy their oil, despite sanctions.

Seconds, there is this comment from Leonid Ragozin, a journalist in Riga:

“Domestically, Putin stands to benefit from the scenes of destruction and chaos in Iran as well. The war, which the US and Israel are now trying to sell as something that could help Iranians to build a freer and more prosperous country, will only increase the besieged fortress attitude among Russians and solidify the image of Putin as a protector of the nation, even if an authoritarian one.”

It is an important point, Putin may well be able to sell to Russians that it is “them versus the world,” and that they need to grit their teeth and stiffen their spines, unite behind the flag and fight on for Mother Russia, thus to decidedly strengthen the will of the Russian people.

And as the old Prussian Field Marshall told us, in the end, war is a struggle of will.

v/r pete