NOVEMBER 28th, 2025 Abbreviated format today

Politics 

The negotiations continue. Of note, President Putin yesterday commented on the Trump Peace Proposal: 

 “In general, we agree that this can be the basis for future agreements.”

While this is of note, it isn't really clear that Putin is prepared to start talks based on the 28 point plan, or the revised 19 point plan that has been generated in Geneva, a derivative of the first plan.

The latest from Kyiv: President Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Yermak is resigning; President Zelenskyy stated: 

"I want no one to have any questions about Ukraine. Therefore, today the following internal decisions will be made: the Office of the President of Ukraine will be rebooted. The head of the Office, Andrii Yermak, has written a letter of resignation." 

Correction - the Witkoff conversation noted on Wednesday was with Putin’s ForPol aide Yury Ushakov, not Putin aide Kirill Dmitriev. Ushakov had spoken to Dmitriev, but Witkoff had not.

Combat Ops

Fighting continues along the essentially the entire line of contact. Russian forces had gains in several areas over the last two days, as did Ukrainian forces. But, in the key points along the front: Kupyansk, Siversk, Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole, while there were some Ukrainian gains, the tide is still in favor of the Russians. What is of particular note is that there seems to be a growing difference between what is being reported, a sort of “three-corner hat” of analysis. At one corner is the Kyiv “map,” at another corner is the map of what might be called the European “map" (the pro-Ukrainian analytic community), and at the third corner is the Moscow “map.” The differences have always existed but they seem to be growing. One blogger analyst suggested that the others are now in denial, and I think it is fair to say that one capital or the other is going to be shown to be clearly out of touch with the battlefield. Which one remains to be seen.

All that said, While there were minor gains by both Ukrainian and Russian forces around Kupyansk, south of Kupyansk, (north-east of Borova) a Ukrainian force of unknown size, probably about a battalion) appears to have been circled by Ukrainian forces, but they are holding their position.

Just a bit further south Russian forces appear to have made some small gains both on the east side of Siversk and west of that city,

But it is around Pokrovsk and around Hulyaipole that the Ukrainian forces are having trouble. There is a great deal of detailed reporting, much of it contradictory, but sorting through it all, and the various biases from both capitals, it appears that Russian forces control all of Pokrovsk except small, isolated Ukrainian elements scattered across the area. As for the Pokrovsk pocket, which now mainly consists of the city of Myrnohrad, it seems that, at a minimum, the last roads and paths out of the pocket are under direct fire from Russian artillery. And while there is not yet definitive proof, the GLOC was probably cut on Wednesday or Thursday; the pocket is closed. 

How many Ukrainian troops remain inside the pocket is not known, but speculation seems to cycle between 1,000 and 2,000 troops, elements of 3 different brigades.

Further south, Russian forces continue to press into open farmland and straighten their lines, and north of Hulyaipole the Russians continue to press westward. As with other cities, the actual front line in or through or around Hulyaipole is hard to know, but it appears that the Russians have taken the high ground east of the city, and have closed to the northern and north-eastern edge of the city. Probes continue into the city as do drones and artillery strikes. It is impossible to know, but it would seem Hulyaipole could fall during December.

Thoughts

There three overlapping issues here: the status of combat operations, the various versions of the Trump Peace proposal, and the growing corruption scandal, obviously make things very difficult for all concerned. My own sense is that the Ukrainian army is weakening, and that is a function of manpower losses that are overwhelmingly among the combat arms, and especially the infantry. The loss of perhaps a thousand combat troops (and maybe more) just underlines the problem.

The peace proposal machinations grind forward but there is reason to wonder what Putin “agreed” with: the 28 point version, or some version of the European amended proposal. My guess is that Putin is not going to accept any proposal unless it includes Donetsk, Luhansk and the current front line, and at the same time, no NATO forces stationed in Ukraine. The size of the army is, I think, not significant as Ukraine, a country of 31 million, will not be able to support an army of 800,000 or even 600,000. A force of 2% of your population is simply too expensive and could only be maintained if Europe paid the bill.

As for the corruption issue, there are three obvious schools of thought: 1) Zelenskyy is innocent of any corruption and he needs this investigation to proceed and ending the war might facilitate that; 2) Zelenskyy is involved so he would want to keep the war going so he remains powerful enough to keep his position; or 3) Zelenskyy is involved and he would want to use the peace process to gain immunity. 

Whichever the reality, Yermak has been his friend and closest advisor for years; the loss of Yermak is going to weaken him politically at least in the near term.

v/r pete   

 Happy Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving 2025

We all know the story about the first Thanksgiving in Plymouth. And the argument that there was one in Jamestown years earlier. And that there was one in St. Augustine Fl. Several decades earlier. And President Washington’s Thanksgiving Proclamation in 1789. 

But the first Thanksgiving of the United States, that is, after we were independent, was in December, 1777. And that is a different story altogether. 

1777 was a difficult year. The US was not winning the war. It was well understood that the new nation needed an ally - France. And several prominent figures were already in Paris, trying to convince the court of King Louis to recognize the US and provide aid against the British: Ben Franklin had been in Paris since 1776, as had Silas Deane and Arthur Lee. John Adams left for Paris in November 1777 (later with his son John Quincy Adams).

But France didn’t want a burden, they didn’t want to “sign on” and end up not only at war with England but with an ally who was more trouble than help. And the only way to show that was for the “Colonies” to win a convincing victory. The Continental Congress - and Gen. Washington - knew we needed to show it was worth it to Paris to aid the American. But 1777 was not an easy year for the General. 

By 1777 the British strategy had evolved; the aim was to cut the colonies into at least two pieces, driving an army up the Hudson River Valley from New York and thereby, with the help of the Royal Navy, isolating New England and all the rabble rousers therein from the rest of the colonies. General Howe would lead troops north from New York, Gen. Burgoyne would lead a force south from Canada, and Col Leger (later Gen Leger) would lead a force from Montreal to the Mohawk valley and then east to Albany, joining up with Burgoyne’s army, and then the combined force would push south to meet up with Howe.

For the plan to work, it really needed the three forces move in a coordinated manner. But in fact, the wilderness of north and central New York made that virtually impossible. Anyone who really wants to see that should visit Lake George, NY and venture into the woods around the lake - several wilderness areas and the Fingers Lake national forest. 250 years ago the major difference was that these forest areas were even larger. The movie “Last of the Mohicans” (1992), though made in North Carolina, captures the nature of the wilderness that was New York in the 1700s.

But the British plan started going sideways early when Gen. Howe decided he was going to chase down Washington, and then occupy Philadelphia.

It began with Howe suggesting to George Germain, the Secretary of State for the Colonies (who was the senior British official into colonels and the man in charge of the war), that Philadelphia, seat of the Continental Congress, be seized and occupied. Germain agreed, though apparently Germain thought Howe was going to hurt push up the Hudson and rendezvous with Burgoyne, THEN push on Philadelphia.

Howe pushed into New Jersey thinking that he would engage Washington’s army, defeat it, and then move on Philadelphia. Washington withdrew into southern New Jersey and Howe decided to move by ship south to Chesapeake Bay, and then moved up the bay to the north end and landed at present day Elkton, MD. What followed were the Battle of Brandywine, the largest battle of the war, in which Gen Washington was nearly killed (saved by Gen Casimir Pulaski - who was technically a civilian during the battle as Congress had yet to authorize his commissioning), and then a successful British engagement at Paoli (just west of Philadelphia), followed by the Congress evacuating Philadelphia for Lancaster.

Of course, while this was going on Howe failed to explain to Burgoyne just what it was that he was doing.

Burgoyne had attacked southward out of Canada, fought and won at Bennington - at considerable cost - in mid August, but by mid September, with his logistics badly strained, Burgoyne crossed the Hudson. What followed were a series of engagements - Freeman’s Farm, Gen Clinton’s thrust up the Hudson that stopped far short of the upper river, the battle of Bemis heights, and finally Burgoyne’s surrender on October 17th at Saratoga. This victory is usually recognized as the turning point in the war. Word of this victory reached Europe, and on February 6th, 1778 King Louis XVI entered into a formal alliance with the United States, providing more men and material and forcing England to divert assets.

In recognition of the victory the Continental Congress issued a proclamation:

IN CONGRESS

November 1, 1777

FORASMUCH as it is the indispensable Duty of all Men to adore the superintending Providence of Almighty God; to acknowledge with Gratitude their Obligation to him for Benefits received, and to implore such farther Blessings as they stand in Need of: And it having pleased him in his abundant Mercy, not only to continue to us the innumerable Bounties of his common Providence; but also to smile upon us in the Prosecution of a just and necessary War, for the Defense and Establishment of our unalienable Rights and Liberties; particularly in that he hath been pleased, in so great a Measure, to prosper the Means used for the Support of our Troops, and to crown our Arms withmost signal success:

It is therefore recommended to the legislative or executive Powers of these UNITED STATES to set apart THURSDAY, the eighteenth Day of December next, for SOLEMN THANKSGIVING and PRAISE: That at one Time and with one Voice, the good People may express the grateful Feelings of their Hearts, and consecrate themselves to the Service of their Divine Benefactor; and that, together with their sincere Acknowledgments and Offerings, they may join the penitent Confession of their manifold Sins, whereby they had forfeited every Favor; and their humble and earnest Supplication that it may please GOD through the Merits of JESUS CHRIST, mercifully to forgive and blot them out of Remembrance; That it may please him graciously to afford his Blessing on the Governments of these States respectively, and prosper the public Council of the whole: To inspire our Commanders, both by Land and Sea, and all under them, with that Wisdom and Fortitude which may render them fit Instruments, under the Providence of Almighty GOD, to secure for these United States, the greatest of all human Blessings, INDEPENDENCE and PEACE: That it may please him, to prosper the Trade and Manufactures of the People, and the Labor of the Husbandman, that our Land may yield its Increase: To take Schools and Seminaries of Education, so necessary for cultivating the Principles of true Liberty, Virtue and Piety, under his nurturing Hand; and to prosper the Means of Religion, for the promotion and enlargement of that Kingdom, which consisteth "in Righteousness, Peace and Joy in the Holy Ghost.” And it is further recommended, That servile Labor, and such Recreation, as, though at other Times innocent, may be unbecoming the Purpose of this Appointment, be omitted on so solemn an Occasion.

Much was still to come. The winter of 1777-1778 was the horrible winter at Valley Forge, and the victory at Yorktown (October 19, 1781) was still two years away. In fact, December 17th, 1777, the day before the first American Thanksgiving, was the day Washington issued his order to the Army explaining why they were moving into Valley Forge. But still, there was reason to give thanks.

 November 26th, 2025  Next Summary November 28th

Have a Good Thanksgiving

Politics - Negotiations continue  

- Russian drones over Romania

Combat Ops - Russian gains around Siversk

- Russian gains in Pokrovsk, Pokrovsk pocket

- Russian probes in Hulyaipole

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, temperatures dropping this weekend and all next week, probably not cold enough to freeze the fields. 

Kharkiv

45 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Tomorrow and Friday lows in the mid 40s and highs in the upper 40s, then colder, by Sunday lows in the low 30s and highs in the upper 30s. Winds south-easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy for the next week. For the next two days lows will be in the upper 40s, highs will be in the low 50s. From Saturday forward, lows into the low 40s, highs in the upper 40s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

48 in light rain, gusting over 20. Rain tomorrow, then colder, but still cloudy. Temperatures in the 40s through Thursday night, then into the 30s for the next week (highs and lows). Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Trump made several comments on the Trump Peace Proposal Negotiations - they are slightly different and are both worth reading:

Over the past week, my team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the War between Russia and Ukraine. The original 28-Point Peace Plan, which was drafted by the United States, has been fine-tuned, with additional input from both sides, and there are only a few remaining points of disagreement. In the hopes of finalizing this Peace Plan, I have directed my Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with President Putin in Moscow and, at the same time, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will be meeting with the Ukrainians. I look forward to hopefully meeting with President Zelenskyy and President Putin soon, but ONLY when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages

Over the past week, my team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the War between Russia and Ukraine (A War that would have NEVER started if I were President!). Last month 25,000 soldiers died. The original 28-Point Peace Plan, which was drafted by the United States, has been fine-tuned, with additional input from both sides, and there are only a few remaining points of disagreement. In the hopes of finalizing this Peace Plan, I have directed my Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with President Putin in Moscow and, at the same time, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will be meeting with the Ukrainians. I will be briefed on all progress made, along with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. I look forward to hopefully meeting with President Zelenskyy and President Putin soon, but ONLY when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages. Thank you for your attention to this very important matter, and let's all hope that

PEACE can be accomplished AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!

DONALD J. TRUMP

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Ambassador Witkoff will be in Moscow next week, SecArmy Driscoll will be in Kyiv within “several” days” to discuss the negotiations with the respective leadership.

A recording of Ambassador Witkoff speaking with a Russian Ambassador Dmitriev drew criticism from some but the criticism was brushed aside by President Trump as something necessary to sell the proposal.

Last night Russian Deputy ForMin Ryabkov seemed to knock the idea of Russian concessions:

"Different versions of this plan are part of the negotiating process. There can be no talk of any concessions or of surrendering our approaches to the key aspects of the tasks we face, including in the context of the special military operation”

"The problem lies in whether there is genuine political will to strictly implement the agreements reached by the leaders in Anchorage, Alaska. For our part, we remain committed to the outcomes of Anchorage and will continue to act within that framework, correlating what is happening now with those basic guidelines set out there by the two presidents.

The EU continues to work for more of a place at the table. European Commission President von der Leyen stressed that the EU would not support ‘forceful territorial concessions,’ nor one that did not reflect “the centrality of the European Union” in securing peace.

And EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas clarified the EU’s role isn security guarantees:

"The European Union itself will make a major contribution to security guarantees with funding, training and defence industry support. We are working on these details now, including the extension of our current missions in Ukraine. But security guarantees to Ukraine do not change the fact that the real threat here is Russia.

“In the last 100 years, Russia has attacked more than 19 countries, some as many as three or four times. None of these countries have ever attacked Russia. So, in any peace agreement, we have to put the focus on how to get concessions from the Russian side… that they stop aggression for good and do not try to change borders by force.

The focus should be on what Russia – the aggressor – must do, not what Ukraine – the victim – must sacrifice. Today, we reaffirmed our shared principles: sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and Ukraine's inherent right to self-defence. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”

During the night of November 24th-25th two Russian drones (Gerbera drones (a more cheaply made version of the Shahed drone, often without a warhead, sometime used as a decoy or a communications relay)) penetrated Romanian airspace in south-east Romania, near the southern tip-off Moldova. Two NATO Typhoons and 2 F-16s were launched and intercepted but did not shoot down the drones.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLAST

Russian forces continued probes and small unit attacks across the front lines north of Sumy City but there were no changes to the front lines.

North and north-east of Kharkiv city Russian forces continue operations but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues just north of the Oskil River near the Russia-Ukraine border, but there were no changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in Kupyansk and along the entire front south to the Donets River but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. There are, however, multiple reports of Russian probes into Lyman (just north of the Donets River), as well as reports from the Ukrainian General Staff of Russian of troops in contact just east of the town, and unofficial commentary that Russian forces are threatening the ground lines of communication (GLOC) into Lyman from the west.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

There are multiple reports of Russian forces pushing into the north-east corner of Siversk but these have not been confirmed. It does appear, however, that Russian forces have reached the reservoirs just north-east of the city, and there is unconfirmed reporting that Russian forces just west of Platonivka have reached and control the T0513 roadway, the major GLOC in Siversk.

Russian forces continue probes into Kostiantinivka, and Ukrainian military sources suggest that the Russian units now operating inside the city are no longer simply small recon elements but are growing in size; Russian drone strikes into Kostiantinivka have been growing in frequency as well.

North-west of Toretsk, outside of Kostiantinivka, a good deal of fighting was reported, just at the eastern end of the Kleban Byk Reservoir and in Nelipivka, Ivanopilllia and across pieces of 4 or 5 more towns, and on the eastern edge of Kostinanitnivka itself. Russian forces continue to probe, and conduct drone strikes into the city and the surrounding town; Ukrainian forces continue to push back at the city edge; There are a number of small Ukrainian elements (how small isn't clear) that continue to hold positions inside what would otherwise be Russian controlled territory, and they are being resupplied with ammo by drones. At the same time, the Russian probes into Kostiantinivka are gradually increasing in number.

In Pokrovsk, Ukrainian reporting confirms Russian control of Pokrovsk, with complete control south of the rail line, and notes that the remaining fighting has been pushed back to the northern edges of the city. Reporting notes Russian artillery has now been moved into the city to support attacks on Ukrainian forces on the north edge, as well as to cut the narrow corridor that connects the Poklrovsk pocket to the west and interdict the GLOC into the Pokrovsk pocket. Ukrainian sources also note that Russian forces over the past week have pushed back into Rodynske (just north of Pokrovsk), and now control that town as well.

As for the Pokrovsk pocket and Myrnohrad, Russian forces in Rodynske and Pokrovsk are working to push across the “mouth” of the pocket and close it off, and also continue to send probes into Myrnohrad itself; a number of Russian soldiers were captured while operating in the center of Myrnohrad. Ukrainian military sources note that all Ukrainian lines of communication and all positions in the pocket are within range of Russian FPV drones.

South-west of Pokrovsk, Russian forces appear to made some gains pushing onto Novopavlivka from the south, and also appear to be making slow, steady gains in closing up the pocket east of Fillia.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues just south of the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed gains in this area.

Further south, in the area of Hulyaipole and in the terrain with 15 miles north of that city, Russian forces continue to attack west and south; there were no confirmed changes in the front lines, but reporting suggests Russian forces are increasing the number of probes into Hulyaipole, that direct attacks on Hulyaipole may have begun on Monday, and that Russian forces are also trying to clear Ukrainian forces from high ground east of Hulyaipole (about 3-4 miles east of Hulyaipole the terrain is a small ridge about 150 feet higher than the surround farmland)

There were no other confirmed changes to the line further west across southern Ukraine.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 25th-November 26th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 90 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 72 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Kyiv oblasts. Targets included the power grid; there were power blackouts and water disruptions in Kyiv, and a partial blackout in Odessa.

At least 1 civilian was killed and 2 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 6 towns.

During the night of November 24th-November 25th Ukrainian forces struck an airfield in Hvardiiske, central Crimea, and destroyed the A-60 aircraft at the field. The A-60 was a Russian experimental aircraft, based on an IL-76 transport, used as a flying laser laboratory. Reportedly, the aircraft hasn’t flown since 2016.

During the night of November 24th-November 25th Russian forces launched at least 4 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 7 x Iskander cruise missiles, 8 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 464 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile, 3 Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 Kalibr cruise missiles, 5 Iskander cruise missiles, and 438 drones. 

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. Targets included the power grid and rail; there were power blackouts and water disruptions in Kyiv, and a partial blackout in Odessa.

At least 9 civilians killed and 32 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov25 Nov26

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.35 62.27

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 57.83 57.25

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.38 4.60

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.34 5.39

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 78.92 78.58

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.27 42.28

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 53.35 53.78

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 59.22 59.22

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.57 59.30

There was some price movement in oil following the Trump Peace Proposal but, after some speculation, plus debate as to whether the Fed will cut rates in December, prices seemed to have settled; the market is, apparently, waiting for more news. 

Thoughts

The following is to considered speculation:

At the start of 2022 there were reportedly 200,000 on active duty and another 200,000 ready reservists in the Ukrainian armed forces. Martial law and mobilization was ordered shortly after the war began. There was an initial surge in recruiting and then recruiting settled to a steady rate of 20,000 - 27,000 per month, and has been at 27,000 per month for all of 2025, per the Ukrainian government. As of late last year the numbers being used by the government cycled between 1.2 million and 1.3 million, with some 35,000 in the UAF and perhaps 30,000 in the Ukrainian Navy. At one point it was reported that there were 1,280,000 in uniform, with 1,200,000 in the army. But in the last few months the number has settled on figures in the 900,000 range.

Now, some math. Assume 23,500 new recruits per month (half way between 20,000 and 27,000), for 9 months in 2022, and 24 total months (2023 + 2024), and 27,000 for 10 months in 2025. Plus the original 400,000. That gives a total of 775,500 + 270,000 + 400,000 + 1,445,500 who have served in uniform.

With very few exceptions, other than those severely wounded and can’t return to active duty, no one has been discharged from the army. So, the difference between the total who have served (1,445,500) and the number currently in service (900,000) represent “unrecoverable losses,” killed in action, severely wounded (and can’t return to active duty), desertions, and POWs. Note that 70% of WIAs return to active duty, per the Ukrainian army. Normally, it wold also include “Missing,” but there have been admissions that, in essence, all the missing are, in fact, KIAs.

So, total unrecoverable losses would be 545,500. We know that there have been something on the order of 150,000 desertions. That places KIAs, Severe WIAs and POWs at 400,000. POW numbers are hard to pin down but scattered reporting suggests 10-15,000. This would leave the total KIA and severely wounded count - which has been shown to be split roughly evenly, at 380,000, or 190,000 KIA and 190,000 severely wounded, or an average of 4,200 KIA and 4,200 severe WIAs per month.

These numbers are consistent (albeit a little low) with the reported 100,000 amputees from combat wounds.

As of last week Mediazone, the most reliable count of Russian casualties, places Russian KIAs between 149,000 and 219,000. Again, severely wounded counts are approximately the same as KIAs.

v/r pete