January 17th, 2025 Next Summary January 21st
Ground Ops - Possible Russian gains east of Oskil River
- Russian gains south-west and east of Pokrovsk
- Attack on Velyka Novosilke has begun
Politics - Russia - Iran sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty
- US provides $2.3 billion to Ukrainian drone production
Weather
Kharkiv
36 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the next week, rain showers tomorrow afternoon. For the weekend, daily high temperatures in the upper 30s, daily lows near freezing. Monday and Tuesday lows will be in the 20s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
36 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy through Sunday morning, partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and Monday. Daily lows through the weekend will be in the mid 30s, highs near 40. Monday and Tuesday will se lows in the mid 20s, highs around 40. Winds variable, 5-15kts.
Kyiv
37 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the week. Low temperatures for the next week will be in the low 30s, highs will be near 40. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.
Ground Operations
Kursk Salient
There were no major changes in.the front line of the salient, but fighting was reported in multiple locations and Russian forces appear to have made minor gains south of Sudzha in the vicinity of the town of Makhnovka, even as Ukrainian elements were counter-attacking.
In another strange effort, Ukrainian forces attacked across the border and into the small Russian town of Uspenovka - located about 2.5 miles west of (outside of) the current permitter of the salient. Uspenovka is a village of perhaps 25 houses located along less than 2,000 feet of a single street, a single dirt road leads to the north, plus a single lane tarred road (might be sprayed oil) that leads to the west.
Ostensibly they are trying to draw response from the Russians, but it will be tough for the Russians to even get there.
North of Kharkiv
Russian forces were active near Vovchansk but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.
North of the Donets
Considerable Russian activity was reported in the vicinity of Kupyansk, between Svatove and the Oskil River, and in the south, west of Kreminna, but there were no confirmed gains anywhere.
However, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported troops in contact just 4 miles north-north-east of Borova, which would represent a significant Russian advance if accurate. And, west of Terny, a UGS report noted fighting more than a mile further west than the last noted extent of the front lines.
Bakhmut
North of Bakhmut Russian forces were active in a broad arc east of Siversk but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.
Inside Chasiv Yar imagery confirms that at least part of the ceramics plant is now in Russian hands, Fighting continues to the immediate north of Chasiv Yar, as well as to the south and Russian sources claim gains in both areas, but they cannot be confirmed.
There have been multiple reports that the Russians are using the large pipes that connect to the Donets canal to move forces into Chasiv Yar and apparently they continue to do so despite the reports being public for several days.
Around Toretsk, Russian forces are engaged at three points: pressing into the very north-west corner of Toretsk, where fighting appears to be centered on the two large waste hills from local mines, to the north-east as they attempt to enter Krymske, and to the south-west as they push into Shcherbynivka. Russian forces made small but confirmed gains in the last two, but not the first.
Donetsk City
Russian forces continued to make gains south-west of Pokrovsk, with confirmed gains north of Pishchane (closing to slightly less than 3 miles of Pokrovsk), and now general agreement that Russian forces sit astride several miles of the T0406 roadway that runs west-south-west out of Pokrovsk.
North of Pischane Russian forces appear to have entered the south-west corner of the town of Zvirove, a small town that sits on both banks of a small river that runs south-west out of Pokrovsk, and there is an a continues run of houses and small buildings from Zvirove up into the center of Pokroivsk. It is not clear that the Russians will begin the standard “urban assault” of the town at this point, or will instead choose to encircle Pokrovsk and then attack.
Russian forces were also active east-north-east of Pokrovsk near Baranivka (about 15 miles east-north-east of Pokrovsk), pushing through that town to the north and north-west. This could be part of the encirclement of Pokrovsk, an effort to close up the pocket between the Pokrovsk salient and Toretsk, or both. In any case, this movement appears to have cut the T0504 roadway north of Baranivka, the road that connects Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka and beyond to Bakhmut and Toretsk.
To the south-east of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces continue to hold the pocket just south-west of Kurakhove, with just marginal gains by Russian forces just west of the mouth of the pocket. Reporting varies, of course, but the pocket still measures about 4 x 4 miles in size and the mouth - the north-west corner - is still about 3 miles (5,000 meters) wide.
Further south, Russian forces have pushed into Vremivka (just west of Velyka Novosilke (VN)) and were confirmed to have pushed into the southern side of the town, Further reporting, unconfirmed, suggests they have already reached the center off the town. Taking Vremivka will essentially give them control of the west bank of the Mokri Yaly river from Vremivka north to the vicinity of Novyi Komar, where both banks are controlled by Russian forces; there being no bridges in that area, Ukrainian forces would be trapped on the east side of the river.
Russian attacks also continue from the east of VN and from the north and unconfirmed reports, supported by UGS contact reports, suggest that Russian forces have already penetrated one or two blocks into the south-east corner of VN itself.
Southern Ukraine
Russian forces continued operations in a broad area south of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. Russian forces were also active along the lower Dnepr River but, again, there were no changes to the terrain held by each side.
Air Operations
Russian forces launched 50 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace last night and today; the UAF claimed it shot down 33 drones and 9 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW), and one flew into Romania. There were no reports concerning the other drones.
During the night of 15-16 January Russian forces launched 55 x Shahed dozens into Ukrainian air space; the UAF claimed it shot down 34 drones and 18 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). The UAF claimed that debris caused damed in Poltava and Kharkiv oblasts. Local government officials in Solomyanskyi, Holosiivskyi, Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Pechersk raions of Kyiv City reported damage from drones.
Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Voronezh and gunpowder plant in Tambov, and a fire was reported at the Lisinskaya oil refinery.
Politics
Russia and Iran have signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty. The agreement seeks to ‘further development of cooperation’ in the long term, and addresses defense, counter-terrorism, energy, finance, transport, industry, agriculture, culture, science and engineering.
Per the New York Times, The Biden administration spent $2.3 billion on improving drone production in Ukraine. An initial $800 million was provided last year in the wake of the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive to help the Ukrainian drone industry. President Biden then added $1.5 billion following President Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the White House.
Economic Reporting
Feb 22 Mar 7 Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan16 Jan17
Brent 94.71 119.50 120.90 75.58 80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 81.21 81.35
WTI 92.10 123.80 119.50 71.29 75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 79.22 78.87
NG 3.97 4.45 8.41 2.15 2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 4.10 4.12
Wheat 8.52 12.94 10.71 6.17 6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.39 5.36
Ruble 85 145.70 58.48 82.59 88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 102.35 102.37
Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 42.14 42.11
Urals 56.56 67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 77.38 76.29
ESPO 65 77 78.19 82.71 82.85
Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 76.73 76.40
Thoughts
As the Russians attack westward from south of Pokrovsk, a point that has been of concern before, has again raised its head: Ukrainian defensive positions for the most part run east-west, following the lines of the various rivers that flow into the Dnepr.
What that means is that once Russian forces are between a string of positions they can move about with less difficulty - less interference from Ukrainian forces. It would seem that the Ukrainians believed that major defensive positions in the south-east: Vuhledar, Marinka, Avdiivka - would not fall, and this there was less need for north-south defensive lines and greater defense in depth.
But they did, and the Russians are now exploiting this obvious gap. Russian forces south of Pokrovsk, pushing west, face few major defensive belts all the way to the Dnepr River.
Further, while there were multiple defensive positions east and south-east of Pokrovsk, approaching Pokrovsk from Zvirove shows some dense packing of small buildings, but there are no formal defensive positions to speak of.
What this means simply is that Russian forces will keep making gains by pushing westward. Add in what seems to be a developing manpower problem in the Ukrainian army and the Russians could be on the verge of a break through.
The Russian army is not organized or trained for large, rapid breakthroughs, but even a series of small breakthroughs and exploitations could rapidly change the complexion of the war.
v/r pete
