April 8th, 2025
Diplomacy - 2 Chinese soldiers captured by Ukrainian army
- Zaluzhnyi describes combined HQ
Ground Ops - More Russian gains
Weather
Kharkiv
36 and cloudy, snow showers, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows at or below freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
41 and cloudy, gusting to 25. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain in the afternoon on Wednesday, again Thursday night and Friday. Daily lows at or below freezing all week, daily high low to mid 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
32 and cloudy, windchill 21, gusting over 25. Snow showers possible tonight. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, snow on Thursday. Daily lows this week in the high 20s, highs will be in the mid to upper 30s, windchills in the low 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Politics and Diplomacy
President Trump commented that he was “not happy” with Russia for bombing Ukraine “like crazy.”
At the same time, Trump commented that Kyiv and Moscow are “sort of close” on a deal.
President Zelenskyy announced that the Ukrainian army had captured two Chinese soldiers fighting in the Russian forces in the Donetsk region.. The Ukrainian ForMin has summoned the Chinese Charge d’affaires to the Ministry to demand an explanation.
Belgium announced a 1 billion euro ($1.1 billion) support package for Ukraine to buy Belgian weapons.
Ambassador Zaluzhnyi, former Ukrainian army CINC, today described the combined HQ in Wiesbaden and a “secret weapon.”
"That is why, in April 2022, we set up a facility to coordinate military aid deliveries to Ukraine. It was initially stationed at the US European Command headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany. Later, the headquarters continued to operate in Wiesbaden.
“We quickly understood that we needed a joint operational headquarters with our partners to evaluate the requirement for weapons and equipment based on operational planning. This became especially important in the summer of 2022, when our partners began to doubt the practicality of specific types of weapons and ammunition on the front line in Ukraine.”
"And Wiesbaden received a new lease on life. This headquarters became the place where operations were planned, war games were conducted, needs for the Armed Forces were formed, and then communicated to Washington and European capitals…an excellent mechanism for cooperation with our partners regarding future military operations and for forming requirements to support them.”
Ground Operations
KURSK SALIENT
In what is left of the Kursk salient force, Ukrainian troops have been squeezed up against the border as Russian forces pushed through most of the town of Guyevo. Reporting is mixed; Russian troops have either taken the town or there are small, isolated pockets of Ukrainian troops remaining in the town and Russian forces are trying to dig them out.
Further south, north-west of Belgorod, Russian forces continue to slowly squeeze the Ukraine forces against the border. Demidovka has been retaken by the Russians and the small village of Plekovo also appears to have been retaken. The Ukrainian troops are now concentrated in two small areas against the border, though small pockets of troops remain in both towns.
NORTH OF KHARKIV
Fighting was reported in the vicinity of Lyptsi and Vovchansk but there were no changes to the front lines.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
North of Kupyansk pro-Russian reporting claims gains in the vicinity of Zapadne and also from various position along the west side of the Oskil river, from Zapadne to the Russian border; but there were no confirmed gains.
Russian forces conducted probes and small unit attacks along a broad arc north, north-east and east of Borova about 7 miles but there ere no confirmed gains.
West of Terny Russian forces continue to press to the west and north-west and appear to have pushed through Katerynivka (north-west of Terny about 6 miles) and are attacking Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka and Lypove.
BAKHMUT
Russian forces had small, confirmed gains east of Siversk. As with most of the gains along the lines in this area, gains are won and lost in a seeming see-saw manner, with pieces of terrain gained, held for several weeks, and then lost.
Despite claims that Russian forces had gains south-west of Chasiv Yar, there are no indications that the front line has moved.
Further south, in Toretsk, Russian forces had confirmed gains in the south-west edge of the town, near the large mine waste hill. Unconfirmed gains were reported north and north-east of the town.
To give some idea of the close nature of this fight, reports note that Russian and Ukrainian forces are flying FPV suicide drones at each other in the same building.
DONETSK CITY
Russian forces had confirmed gains in and around Uspenivka (8 miles south-west of Pokrovsk); and also gained ground in Lysivka (4 miles south-east of Pokrovsk).
Russians gains were also reported, but not confirmed, along essentially every town on the western edge of the Pokrovsk salient, from Kotlyne south to Trotsky. Russian attacks were also reported in 14 other towns along the perimeter of the salient.
South of the Pokrovsk salient Russian forces continue to push slowly westward. Russian forces may have had minor gains inside Kostyantynopil, but fighting continues inside the town center.
Elsewhere, Russian forces have control of most of Rozlyv, and remain n the easter edge of Oleksiivka.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Russian forces have been confirmed in Stepove, and fighting continues along the general line from Kamyanske to Shcherbaky.
Drone and artillery strikes continue across the Dnepr River.
Air Operations
There were no missile strikes reported over the night of the 6th, or during the day of the 7th. Why this is so is, of course, unknown, but Russian forces have had short lulls in strikes before to build up numbers for a very larger strike, and while speculative, they could be setting up a small stockpile to be used in the event they engage in another offensive, no launches several days each week and set those assets aside for later use to kick off a major thrust.
During the night of April 8th Russian forces launched an as yet undetermined number of Shahed drones as well as the use of artillery and battlefield rockets into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down at least 27 drones. Damage was reported in the towns of Marhanets, Nikopol, Pokrovske, Samara, and Synelnykove; there were no casualties reported.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr7 Apr8
Brent 94.71 120.90 75.58 80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.04 64.80
WTI 92.10 119.50 71.29 75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 60.40 61.37
NG 3.97 8.41 2.15 2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.89 3.69
Wheat 8.52 10.71 6.17 6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.34 5.38
Ruble 85 58.48 82.59 88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.03 86.24
Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.11 41.18
Urals 56.56 67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 UNK 52.76
ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 70 70
Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 60.38 61.42
Note, Russia’s budget planning for the last 2 years has used $70 / barrel for planning purposes. Urals oil spot price this week is the lowest it has been since August of 2021. ESPO prices are regularly higher than Urals oil, but also mainly involve some long range contracts.
While European arms manufacturers continue to talk about aiding Ukraine, and about a general EU arms buildup, as if this year, 3 years into the war, European NATO states combined produce 1/4th as much ammunition as does Russia.
Thoughts
There is a growing chorus that says the Russians are preparing an offensive. Several thoughts.
Russia has roughly 600,000 ground troops (of all types: infantry, armor, artillery, etc) in or immediately adjacent to Ukraine. A count of one blogger’s map - who has consistently reported accurately - shows there are between 100 and 120 Russian Army brigades or regiments in the theater. (This includes a number of Naval Infantry regiments. As a reminder, as the Russians use the term, a brigade is an element of a division (normally 3, sometimes 4 brigades); a regiment operates independently. Both have, on paper, about 2500 - 3000 soldiers, both have 3, sometimes 4 battalions). There are also a number of border guard and Rosgvardiya brigades (National Guard), which are not as capable as regular army but have proven quite effective at times. All told, there are more than 20 such brigades.
So, If the Russians really wanted to use all available forces, they could mount 120+ brigade-sized units. This equates to about 400,000 troops in combat units inside Ukraine.
Against this the Ukrainians have roughly 40 brigades. What is the actual manning of all these brigades? I have no idea (for Russian or Ukrainian units). But I would hazard a guess that the Ukrainians have perhaps 200,000 - 240,000 troops in combat units, I this e 40 brigades and other, attached, units, the rest of their army is support. Of these 240,000, at least one-quarter are support troops moved into combat units in the last several months.
If there is an attack, it really won't be a surprise; there is so much reconnaissance taking place on and over the front lines that little moves without being seen. However, the Russians have several advantages here: first, a large percentage of their forces are already well forward and can move to the line in short order. Seconds, the Russians have large amounts of supplies forward while also learning how to keep supplies dispersed enough that there are few large fuel or ammo depots that can be struck by the Ukrainians with long range systems. And third, the Russian style of fighting is such that they are not expecting rapid, “blitzkrieg” style advances.
Also working against the Ukrainians is the terrain - flat and open, and the defensive positions that they built. Defensive positions in the southland Donetsk region, run east - west; Russian forces in the east are mainly attacking in parallel with the defensive positions, make them of little value.
Finally, spring is upon us, the land should be drying out. There will be some issue with rivers that are full from spring rains, but it is worth noting that the Russians have become proficient at putting up pontoon bridges, something they had trouble with in 2022 and 2023.
Where are the Russians likely to attack? Nearly anyplace has possible benefits, but if I were to hazard a guess, I would think the western end of the line (against the Dnepr River, near Kamyanske), 20 miles or so south-west of Zaporizhzhia, would be one attack, or an attack on Kostyantynivka, pushing through Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and north-east from the Pokrovsk salient all at the same time. But, the Russians have their own reasons no matter where they choose.
What about the Ukrainians?
First, they are fighting on their own soil, they know the terrain, and they have shorter supply lines. Seconds, they should not be surprised, Ukraine, especially with the aid of Western Intelligence, should not be tactically surprised anywhere along the line. Third, the Russians will not be moving quickly. If Ukrainian morale holds, they should be able to counter-attack on Russian flanks. If Ukrainian manpower numbers can be concentrated, Ukraine has an even chance of holding the Russian advance.
Obviously, if one or the other side has a major error, or if an army breaks, everything changes. We’ll see...
v/r pete
