December 2nd, 2025  

Politics - Witkoff meeting with Putin

Combat Ops - Pokrovsk 95% controlled by Russia

- Myrnohrad surrounded 

- Russian gains north of Hulkyaipole

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, temperatures still not cold enough to freeze the fields. Thick fog continues to be reported in the Pokrovsk area.

Kharkiv

38 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows in the low to mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds easterly, 5kts.

Melitopol

43 and cloudy. Cloudy through Thursday, some sun possible on Friday. Daily lows in the low to mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

36 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows will be in the mid 30s, daily highs around 40. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff began a meeting with President Putin around noon EDT today. As I write this they are still in the meeting.

The Netherland and Ukraine have agreed to a joint drone production effort, with the Netherlands agreeing to buy 250 million euros ($290 million) worth of weapons from Ukraine.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv; Russian sources claim the city of Vovchansk is now under Russian control but this seems to be at best an exaggeration, and should be seen at part of a Russian disinformation effort to hurt Ukrainian morale, and weaken European support for Ukraine. Russian forces do have a firm grasp of most of Vovchansk, but activate elves ahve decreased.

In both the lodgment north of Kharkiv City and that north of Sumy city, both sides have stripped out assets and shifted them southward and the lack of movement on any given day is nothing more than an indication that the main efforts are elsewhere. Russian forces will continue to conduct recon probes into Ukrainian controlled terrain, and to a lesser extent the Ukrainians will reciprocate. But on any given day activity will be limited to such probes, plus drones and artillery “plinking."

Fighting was reported just inside Ukraine, north of the Oskil River, but there was no confirmed change in the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk; the only confirmed change showed Ukrainian forces control Kurylivka (about 4 miles south-east of Kupyansk) despite claims by some Russian bloggers. 

South of Kupyansk (about 6 miles north of Borova), there are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian force that was in a small pocket centered on Nova Kruhliakivka, have pushed west and retaken the town of Bohuslavka. There an also unconfirmed reports that Russian forces just to the south of this area have pushed further west. A few days of clear weather are needed to clear this up - but that is unlikely to happen until, perhaps, this coming weekend.

Further south, imagery confirms Ukrainian forces hold Stavky (about 4 miles north of Lyman), while unconfirmed reports claim Russian gains east of Lyman - which appears to be supported by Ukrainian General Staff reports, and also possible gains west of Lyman. At the same time, there are claims that despite Russian gains, the major GLOC into Lyman from the west, the C051018 roadway that runs through Drobysheve, remains open for Ukrainian logistics trucks. Given Russian drone and artillery fire, this must be quite a sporty drive.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues around Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues west of Bakhmut along the entire forward line of troops, in particular on the east and south-east edge of Kostiantinivka, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. Russian sources claim that Russian forces have taken control of Maiske (3 miles north-west of Chasiv Yar) and Klynove (6 miles west of Chasiv Yar), but this has not been confirmed.

West of Toretsk, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces pushing northward from the Shakhove area into Sofiivka, and fighting continues west of this area in Dorozhnyi and Rodynske, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

In and around Pokrovsk there is a great deal of fighting reported, characterized as fierce, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines. Ukrainian sources continue to insist that logistics support is reaching the Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad, and that Russian forces do not have full control over Pokrovsk itself.

That said, a senior, unnamed NATO official commented that Myrnohrad is now “virtually encircled.”

"There is a narrow corridor through which the Ukrainians can withdraw certain forces, but it is a very narrow corridor, itself under hostile fire control. Overall, this is an encirclement, though not yet a complete encirclement."

"Ukrainian forces are still conducting defensive actions inside the city, but as supply routes have been almost completely cut, Ukrainian troops are dependent on resupply by drones, which is becoming increasingly difficult.”

The same official commented on Pokrovsk, noting that:

”Russians control over 95% of the city… There are only isolated pockets where Ukrainian forces continue to resist."

This is almost certainly true; but the actual measure of Ukrainian presence is unknown. It is probable that Russian forces have isolated a number of Ukrainian elements inside Pokrovsk, and that Ukrainian forces continue to push into the northern edge of the Russian line, which is the northern edge of Pokrovsk itself. But there are credible sources that Russian forces pushing north from Pokrovsk have made contact with Russian forces pushing south from Rodynske, which would mean they had cut off the Pokrovsk pocket and Myrnohrad. There are some reports that some vehicles, carrying ammo and supplies are still making it through. Again, that would be a very sporty ride.

At the same time, there are reports of Russian air strikes in Myrnohrad, using FAB 500 (500KG (1100lbs) and FAB 1500 (1500KG (3300lbs)) precision glide bombs, which the Russian have used to destroy heavily built bunkers rather that trying to dig out the soldiers inside, and thus more easily move through defended urban areas. This tactic has allowed the Russians to take a number of cities with substantially reduced casualties  (Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Marinka, etc.)

Fighting continues south and south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed charges to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reporting notes Russian gains in the towns just east of Hulyaipole; it appears that all of these those towns are now occupied by Russian forces. Of interest, Russian forces took the high ground east of Hulyaipole in about a week of fighting, but whether that means the Ukrainian force was overwhelmed or the Ukrainian forces withdrew to better ground is not known.

North of Hulyaipole Russian forces also were confirmed to have pushed the line west; the front line now runs from the east edge of Hulyaipole north-west to a point just east of Zelene and northward, just east of the T0401 roadway, to the vicinity of Nove Zaporizhzhia, on the Haichur River. Hulyaipole logistics support is now reduced to trucks moving into the city on the T0814 roadway from the west.

Fighting was reported south and south-east of Orikhiv, and further west of Orikhiv near Stepanohirsk, but there was no confirmed change to the front lines. 

Fighting was again reported near the Antonvoskiy bridge, up river for Kherson city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 1st-December 2nd, Russian forces launched at least 62 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 39 drones. 

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

There are no casualties reports yet.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 2 towns.

During the night of November 30-December 1st, Russian forces launched at least 89 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 63 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts. Targets included the power grid; there were power blackouts in Kyiv, and a partial blackout in Odessa.

At least 4 civilians were killed and 40 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.

Ukrainian naval drones struck the Russian flagged tanker MidVolga-2 about 75 miles off the northern Turkish coast as the ship carried sunflower oil to Georgia. The 13 man crew was reported to be unharmed.

The ship was proceeding under own power to Sinop, Turkey.

This is the third Russian tanker to be struck.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec1 Dec2

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 63.38 62.23

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.54 58.44

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.82 4.91

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.36 5.33

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 77.72 77.18

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.33 42.32

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.42 54.22

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 56.88 56.88

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.43 60.05

Thoughts

Russian forces can be expected to clear Pokrovsk in the next few weeks, Myrnohrad will take longer. But there is little reason to expect some sort of change in the trend line; Pokrovsk will be cleared, Myrnohrad will fall.

Further north, the development north of Kostiantinivka, is worrying. Given the disposition of forces over the past several weeks, the report on Maiske (North-west of Chasiv Yar, north-east of Kostiantinivka) is credible, but the claim that Russian forces have taken Klynove (5 miles north-north-west of Kostiantinivka) would be unusual and would require that a Russian element had pushed past the front line and penetrated at least 5 miles past the Ukraine forward line of troops. If so, it would suggest Kostiantinivka could be at greater risk than all earlier estimates.

This rapid, fairly deep, penetration is what happened in August that resulted in the Salient that pushed some 12 miles into Ukrainian controlled terrain, and was the result of holes in the line due to insufficient numbers of Ukrainian infantry on the line. If this has happened again, given the level of importance of Kostiantinivka, this would suggest the manpower “crunch” is getting worse. If this has happened, I would expect Ukrainian forces will move rapidly to cut off this Russian element and reclaim control of Klynove. But it raises the obvious question: where would they find those troops, and what section of the line would be stripped?

v/r pete 

 December 1st, 2025  

Politics - Comments about the negations, but nothing definitive 

Combat Ops - Grind continues, little change on the ground

- Substantial drone and missile strikes over the weekend, power outages

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, temperatures still not cold enough to freeze the fields. Thick fog has been reported in the Pokrovsk area.

Kharkiv

37 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

45 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

37 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows will be in the mid 30s, daily highs in the high 30s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy talked with UK PM Starmer and Ambassador Witkoff:

Zelenskyy comments to the press followed.

"Together with Emmanuel Macron - Keir Starmer was also in touch - we have just spoken with Rustem Umerov and Steve Witkoff following the talks in Florida. We agreed to discuss more details in person - the teams will agree on schedules for possible further contacts.”

"Frankly, the territorial issue is the most difficult. The issue of funding for recovery, in my view, without the involvement of our European partners, is neither simple nor easy, because the money is in Europe. I do not think this is entirely fair. And the issue of security guarantees, which is very important, specifically from the United States of America and specifically from Europe. So I would say these are the three main topics, the main components and at the same time the triggers. And we need to be very cautious here.”

Pres. Macron (France) and Pres. Zelenskyy spoke. Comments by Macron: 

"Today's meeting has allowed us to advance the consultation between all Europeans and to reiterate everyone's commitment to a just and lasting peace…security guarantees cannot be negotiated without the Ukrainians and the Europeans."

"The United States of America, Ukrainians, and all Europeans want peace. Russia must end its aggression.”

"Ukraine is the only one that can discuss territories, they are its own.” 

"Peace must become truly reliable. The war must end as soon as possible.”

EU ForPol Chief Kallas:

"I fear that all the pressure will be put on the weaker side, because Ukraine's surrender is the easiest way to end this war.”

Ambassador Witkoff will go to Moscow and meet with President Putin, tentatively on December 2nd.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting was reported in both border areas (north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv), but there were no significant changes in the front lines. Imagery did confirm at least one Russian recon probe into southern Vovchansk.

Fighting was reported along the perimeter of the Russian occupied terrain just north of the Oskil River, near the Russia-Ukraine border, but there were no significant changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk; the situation remains quite confused, with Russian forces continuing to assert that they have control of much of the city and Ukrainian forces asserting pretty much the same thing. Trying to parse some sort of accuracy out of the various claims leaves this: the fighting is very hard, small Ukrainian and Russian elements are again mixed up in a sort of checker-board arrangement, and both sides are holding on like death to a dead mule. Drone and artillery support will be important, but this fight looks to go to the side that will commit the most men.

Russian forces continue to hold a small Ukrainian element (1 battalion perhaps) in a small pocket (about 2 miles across and a mile north to south) centered on the small village of Nova Kruhlyakivka, about 5 miles north of Borova, The pocket is just east of the P79 roadway (the road that parallels the Oskil river (on the east side of the river in this area)). Again, this is all manicured farmland, and the village has perhaps 25 - 30 houses, all strung out on a single street.

Further south, fighting continues around Lyman and near the south end of the Nitrius river; reporting suggests Russian recon probes into Lyman but there has been no change to the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut fighting continues on the south, east and north-east edges of Siversk, as well as to the north-west of Siversk, just north of the T0513 roadway that runs westward out of Siversk. But there are no confirmed changes in the front line, or in Russian holdings in Siversk, nor any clear indication that Ukrainian forces can no longer run supplies into Siversk along the T0513 GLOC.

South-west of Bakhmut, north-west of Toretsk, Russian forces continue to probe into Kostiantinivka from the south-east and there are unconfirmed reports that Russian probes have reached the rail yard which is crossed by the T0504 roadway. If so, that is of note, and will be watched.

There are indications that Russian forces now have a secure hold on both the east and west end of the Kleban Byk reservoir, which would isolate any Ukrainian elements remaining just south of the reservoir.

North of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces pushed back into Nove Shakhove and claim to now control that town and Ivanivka (immediately south-west of Nove Shakhove). This puts pressure on the Russian forces that are trying to penetrate the Pokrovsk Pocket from the north, as well as Russian forces in Rodynske that are trying to keep the pocket closed. At the same time there are claims that Ukrainian forces have pushed into Rodynske and have regained control of part of that town as well.

In Pokrovsk itself, and in the pocket centered on Myrnohrad, there are a series of conflicting reports again suggesting a patchwork arrangement of Ukrainian and Russian forces. But in this case the Russians seem to have committed more forces; my count places 24 Russian brigades or regiments in Pokrovsk, around Myrnohrad, and in southern Rodynske. A fair number of those forces are facing north, against Ukrainian forces, but the preponderance of force in the city, and in the pocket, is Russian.

That said, Russian forces, contrary to some reporting, appear willing to use artillery and drones (and an occasional 500KG bomb) to work their way into those areas held by Ukrainian forces, keeping Russian casualties lower, even if it takes longer.

Further south and south-west of Pokrovsk, fighting continues around and in Novopavlivka, but there does not appear to have been a change in the front lines in that area. Just to the south-east, north of Dachne and east of Filiia, Russian forces continue to gradually straighten their lines and seize open farmland.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

From the Vovcha River southward Russian forces remain on the offensive. There were no confirmed gains (again, in large art due to the weather), but reports suggest Russian forces north of Hulyaipole continue to work westward to the Haichur River and small elements appear to have reached the town of Varvarivka. East of Hulyaipole Russian forces continue to grind forward, trying to clean out small pockets of Ukrainian forces; Russian probes continue into Hulyaipole itself.

Fighting also continues along the front line westward to the Dnepr River, There were no significant changes and again Ukrainian elements continue to hold onto positions as Russian forces push up on either side of them, leaving a series of small salients along the line west of Orikhiv. Assisting in this, reporting suggesting that fog has been very dense over the past several days.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 30-December 1st, Russian forces launched at least 89 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 63 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv and Odessa oblasts. Targets included the power grid; there were power blackouts in Kyiv, and a partial blackout in Odessa.

At least 4 civilians were killed and 40 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.

From the night of November 25th-November 29th Russian forces launched at least 7 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 27 cruise missiles of various types and 932 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 4 Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile, 14 various cruise missies, and 817 drones.

Damage was reported across virtually all of Ukraine, with multiple blackouts in major cities. At one point 400,000 homes in the Kyiv area were without power

Casualties included at least 3 killed and 52 wounded.

Some data on Ukrainian air and air defense activity in November:

Shot down or defeated 9,707 targets (compared to 11,269 in October):

- 26 x Ballistic missiles 

- 93 cruise missiles

- 9,588 drones of various types

UAF flew 368 total sorties, to include 200 air defense (anti drone), and 70 strike and air support missions.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov26 Dec1

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.27 63.38

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 57.25 59.54

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.60 4.82

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.39 5.36

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 78.58 77.72

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.28 42.33

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 53.78 54.42

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 59.22 56.88

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.30 60.43

Thoughts

The negotiations grind on, the fighting grinds on, and Europe looks and sounds less than competent. The comments by President Macron seem to be blindingly obvious, but don’t seem to advance the ball an inch down the field. 

Ditto for Starmer, Merz, von der Leyen and Kallas. 

Some observers suggest that Ukraine’s small successes show Russia’s victory isn’t given and Ukraine can still win. Yet Russia’s economy is not breaking. Still we are told Ukraine still can win, but no one says how.

A few months ago I sat down with one of my real smart Army pals and we talked about what Ukraine would need to militarily defeat Russia, particularly in light of Russia’s very slow, risk averse way of war, as well as their new “combined arms” concept that integrates drones, aircraft with stand-off weapons, 4th generation air defense assets, very good electronic warfare and cyber warfare, and a grinding artillery and infantry force. To defeat the Russians the Ukrainians have to develop a force that can defeat that.

I won’t go into the details, but a minimum force would be on the order of 300,000 and a combat support force of at least 200,000. That’s one planner’s take on the problem.

This is In Addition To the current army, who are needed to hold the line.

And this force would require advanced unit training for brigades and divisions. And so, the following - best - time line: training begins March of 2026. Force fully trained and ready: January 2027. The attack starts when the ground hardens - March or April 2027 - best case. Could Ukraine last that long?

And note, Russia get’s a “vote.” They could fully mobilize. They could invite in a Korean or Chinese army. They could use nuclear weapons… 

In the middle of 2022, as Russia struggled to transition to a new war plan, one of attrition, I commented that “If Russia solves its manpower problem, they’ll win this war.” By the end of 2022 it seemed that they had, even as Ukraine was pushing them back. It was the high tide of the war for Ukraine. A friend commented Ukraine needs to “sue for peace right now. After this, it will get worse.”

It has. Three years later it seems Europe and Ukraine are out of ideas, and Ukraine is slowly but surely running out of manpower; Ukraine is running out of time.

v/r pete