April 2nd, 2025 Next Summary April 4th
Politics - Power Grid Ceasefire still not in force.
- Trump losing patience
Combat Ops - Power Grid struck by artillery in Kherson
- Small Russian advances
Weather
Kharkiv
59 and cloudy. Partly cloudy Thursday, sunny on Friday, then more clouds, rain on Sunday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
60 and light rain. More rain on Thursday, then mostly cloudy, showers and clouds through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
50 and light rain, gusting over 25. Tomorrow and Friday will be sunny, more clouds and rain on the weekend, snow flurries possible on Sunday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s through Friday, then temperatures back into the low 40s. Next week could see sunrise temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Politics and Diplomacy
Russia did not launch missiles or Shahed drones against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on the night of the 31st, but Russian artillery struck elements of the power grid near the city of Kherson and left 45,000 homes without power as of yesterday afternoon.
The two countries reached an agreement to refrain from striking each other’s power infrastructure but it does not appear that the agreement actually has gone into effect; both sides were tasked with drawing up a list of facilities that would be on the "no strike" list, and in addition, Russia called for the US to take steps to allow normal banking procedures for Russian banks when transferring money for the sale of grain and agricultural products (in particular fertilizers). It is not at all clear that the lists have been exchanged, and the US has been unable to get the EU to discuss the easing of banking sanctions relative to agriculture.
Various Russian figures continue to voice various demands, and they routinely circle back to “Root Causes,” but the simple fact is that Putin is the only figure on the Russian side whose opinion counts.
Russian Direct Investment Fund Chair Kirill Dmitriev, special envoy from President Putin, will meet with Special Envoy Witkoff this week in Washington.
Ukraine received 3.5 billion Euro ($3.8 billion) in financial support from the European Union.
Sweden will spend 100 million Krona to inspect its 64,000 civil defense bunkers. The bunkers are capable of holding 7 million people.
Ground Operations
KURSK SALIENT
Russian forces continue to squeeze Ukrainian positions along the border, both opposite Sumy and north-west of Belgorod, but the Ukrainian elements are holding their ground. Imagery confirmed Russian forces pushing into Demidovka, While the Ukrainians are fighting a stiff defense, Russian forces continue to close on the rear of those north-east of Sumy and they will soon find it impossible to withdraw.
NORTH OF KHARKIV
Fighting continues in the vicinity of Vovchansk but there was no change in the front line.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
There were no changes to the front lines north of Kupyansk, nor east of Borova. Of note, Russian forces were seen using pontoon bridges over the Oskil River, to move troops to the West Bank of the river in the vicinity of Dvorichna.
Russian forces continue to press west and north-west from the general Terny area and now control a piece of terrain perhaps 5 miles wide (east to west) and 7-8 miles long (north - to south), west of the Zherebets River, with the bottom of the “box” about a mile south of Terny.
As this salient expands, it will provide extra pressure on Ukrainian forces further north and may weaken the Ukrainian hold on the terrain east of Borova.
BAKHMUT
Russian forces had small gains west of Bilohorivka bait 2 miles, along the southern bank of the Donets River, near the village of Hryhorivka.
Fighting continues in the center of Chasiv Yar as Ukrainian troops continue to have a death grip on the last few blocks at city center and there was no confirmed changes to the frontline yesterday.
Fighting continues around Toretsk with contradictory claims by each side and insufficient imagery to confirm which story is correct. Ukrainian forces claim to be holding parts of the city, Russian forces claim to control virtually all of Toretsk proper as well as virtually all of Krymske, and most of Dachne. But, presently little can be confirmed.
DONETSK CITY
Fighting continues around Pokrovsk and along the edge of the Pokrovsk salient. And there were some small confirmed gains by Russian forces south-west of Pokrovsk, near Bohdanivka (about 15 miles south-west of Pokrovsk).
Elsewhere around the salient, fighting was reported in 25 separate towns and village on the perimeter.
Immediately south of the Pokrovsk salient imagery confirms Russian gains north-west of Andriivkla as well as to the south-west of the town, and Russian forces have moved into and control Rozlyv. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian forces also have pushed further west along most of the line in this area; Kostyantynopil may not be completely in Russian control but the town is hemmed in on three sides and Russian forces have pushed west to at least the center of the town.
Fighting continues north-west of Velyka Novosilke, but there has been no further confirmed movement to the north-west, though there are some claims as to marginal gains near Dniproenerhiya (on the east side of the Mokri Yali River) and near Shevchenko (about 5 miles further west), both still south of the Ukrainian defensive line.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Russian forces remain active west of Orikhiv with unconfirmed gains (west to east) Kamyanske, Lobkove, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, and Mali Shcherbaky, and anecdotal reporting from Ukrainian bloggers suggest that the number of Russian probes and attacks is slowly but steadily increasing, and further reports (also unconfirmed) suggest more Russian forces moving into the area.
No reporting on Russian activity on the West Bank of the Dnepr River.
Air Operations
This afternoon (April 2nd), Russian forces launched at least 1 unidentified ballistic missile into Kryvyi Rih, killing at lest 4 and wounding 14, and 74 x Shahed drones were launched into Kharkiv and Odessa oblasts; the UAF claimed it shot down 41 drones.
In addition, more than 50 FAB (JDAM equivalent) bombs were dropped in the Sumy area
After reporting that there were no missile or drone strikes on the 31st, the UAF then reported that Russian forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles into Ukrainian airspace that night, though there were no Shahed suicide drones launched. The UAF claimed it shot down both cruise missiles; there was no reported damage from the falling debris.
What the Russians hoped to gain by launching 2 x Kh-59s isn’t clear, as these particular missiles have not had a high probability of penetrating Ukrainian air defenses, and in particular when the missile flight is not masked by the flights of drones and decoys.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr1 Apr2
Brent 94.71 120.90 75.58 80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 74.44 74.56
WTI 92.10 119.50 71.29 75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 71.18 71.40
NG 3.97 8.41 2.15 2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.95 4.06
Wheat 8.52 10.71 6.17 6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.40 5.36
Ruble 85 58.48 82.59 88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 84.66 84.25
Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.35 41.35
Urals 56.56 67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49 57.00
ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 75.94 76.06
Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 71.33 71.08
Listed price for Urals crude has been frozen at 65.49 since February 25th, but was in fact trading below 60, and was reportedly at $57 per barrel in Primorsk as of last Wednesday (March 26th).
Thoughts
The Russian position on the power grid ceasefire leaves the peace process seemingly stuck at “top dead center;” President Trump needs to do something dramatic to get it moving again. What is remarkable to me is that all the available reporting supports an assessment that the Ukrainian army is losing; if there is any hope at all, it appears to be that the Ukrainians might endure through at least 2026, outlast the Russians, and eventually defeat an exhausted Russia. But with a population that has fallen 30% in 3 years, and suffering similar numbers of casualties as the Russians but with 1/5th the population there is little reason to believe Ukraine can outlast Russia, or survive another 3 years of war. And yet, in the meantime, there is literally no one beside Trump trying to stop this war.
Russian forces moving into the area of the west end of the line (just east of the big bend in the Dnepr River), between Kamyanske and Orikhiv, can’t be confirmed. But a Russian attack north in this area would force Ukraine to reinforce, and weaken the Ukrainian defenses elsewhere.. The city of Zaporizhzhia (700,000 people) is less than 20 miles north of Kamyanske on the Dnepr River and represents too valuable a city for Ukraine to let the Russians start to attack it - the Russian army needs to be held back, and the place to stop them is Kamyanske, not let them gain any ground to the north.
On the other hand, for the Russians to push north and threaten Zaporizhzhia would, beside the obvious operational gains in forcing the movement of forces, generate more internal refugees, and also further disrupt the economy and place more pressure on both the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian government.
It is also worth noting, once again, the manner in which the Russian army just grinds: good weather, bad weather, air strikes, no air strikes, no matter what anyone else is or is not doing, the Russian army just keeps grinding very slowly forward, attriting - killing - Ukrainian soldiers.
v/r pete
