December 16th, 2025 Happy Hanukkah! (14th-22nd)

For the next two weeks summaries will be intermittent…

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Politics - Negotiations continue - “progress” but no details

- Germany - 2 Patriot batteries to Ukraine 

Combat Ops - Kilo SS hit

- Ukrainians clearing Kupyansk

- Russian gains Hulyaipole, Pokrovsk, maybe Siversk 

Weather

Kharkiv

34 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily highs in the mid 30s, daily lows near freezing, except Thursday, which will see highs around 40. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

35 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy all week. Daily highs in the low 40s, daily lows in the lower 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

34 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily highs will be in the mid 30s, daily lows near freezing, wind chills in the low 20s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Trump on negotiations:

An agreement is:  “closer than ever” … “very long and very good talks”

“We’re having tremendous support from European leaders. They want to get it [the war] ended also.”

“We had numerous conversations with President Putin of Russia, and I think we’re closer now than we have been, ever, and we’ll see what we can do.”

Chancellor Merz commented:

“What the US has placed on the table here in Berlin, in terms of legal and material guarantees, is really considerable. We now have the chance for a real peace process,”

He added:

“Only Ukraine can decide about territorial concessions. No ifs or buts.”

Russia’s ForMin Lavrov commented on the peace proposals:

"Now we need to remove these root causes, and it is good that the Americans have understood this. They have clearly said that there can be no NATO. And they have clearly said that those lands where Russians have lived for centuries must once again become Russian, part of Russia.”

Germany has, with Norway and Poland, transferred 2 Patriot batteries and 9 IRIS-T systems to Ukraine, as well as funding packages totaling $700 million.

The UK has announced a 600 million pound ($810 million) to be spent on Ukrainian air defenses. There was no breakdown as to what specifically would be bought with the money.

Jürgen Hardt, a Bundestag MP, had a comment fro President Putin on the negotiations: Accept the peace proposals or else:

“…the Western world will increase its military support for Ukraine, which makes it more difficult for Putin to reach his military goals…And therefore he should now take what is on the table. It's more than he should get.”

He added that the US is "strongly committed to that plan and therefore I'm optimistic that the alliance between the US, Ukraine and the European states is sustainable and also a strong word to Putin.”

"We are convinced that only Ukraine and the Ukrainian president and the Ukrainian parliament can take such a decision. By the way, also the Constitution of Ukraine makes it necessary that the Rada is agreeing on that."

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no were no confirmed changes in the lines.

North-east of Kharkiv City imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces made gains in the terrain east of Vovchansk, some time last week.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in Kupyansk but the Russian presence appears to have been whittled down to, at most, 2 companies, and probably less. The size of the force that actually held Kupyansk was never clear (estimates were all over the map) and while there was some reporting suggested two brigades, it appears that it was never more than 2 battalions inside the city. Perhaps 150 now remain in several small lodgments and Ukrainian forces are in the process of clearing them.

South-east of Kupyansk fighting continues south of Pishchane (9 miles south-east of Kupyansk and in the terrain west of that town, but there are no confirmed changes in the lines. 

Unconfirmed reporting also notes Russian activity west of Kupyansk, near Petropavlivka, but again, there are no confirmed changes.

A good deal of fighting was reported further south, to include Russian forces claiming to have taken Novoplatonivka, north of Borova, but this has not been confirmed. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSK- POKROVSK 

There are multiple claims of changes in the lines in and around Siversk, some Russian sources suggesting that Russian forces have overrun the entire town, but that can’t be confirmed and seems unlikely, as taking the western edge of the town would be very difficult if they did not control the high ground (bluffs about 150 - 200 feet above the terrain of the town) just west of the town; and there is no indication that the Russians control this terrain.

If, however, it does develop that the Russians have control of the high ground, control of the town itself will be virtually a “gimme."

North-west of Toretsk, imagery confirmed small gains by Russian forces in the south-east corner of Kostiantinivka.

West of Toretsk, north of Pokrovsk, fighting in three separate towns but there were no changes in the front lines.

There continues to be a good deal of reporting of fighting in Myrnohrad (the Pokrovsk pocket), and along the northern edge - and just north of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. Heavy cloud cover continues to hamper the commercial imagery that is used to sort out movement of the front lines. Drone imagery does confirm Russian recon probes continue through the lines, into Ukrainian held territory.

Fighting continues south-west of Pokrvosk to the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. That said, there is credible reporting that Russian forces are making gains in “filling in” the unoccupied farmland along the front, and straightening and shortening their lines, particularly in the area of the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk border area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the entire front from the Vovcha River south to Hulyaipole but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

The Russian MOD claimed that Russian forces had seized Pishchane, a small town about 12 miles north-north-west of Hulyaipole, on the west side of the Haichur River. Ukrainian forces answered that the town is in Ukrainian hands. Ukrainian reporting also insists that Russian forces do not hold Vavarivka. That said, Russian forces continue to probe into Pishchane and nearby villages as they try to push across the Haichur River and through the Ukrainian defensive lines immediately west of the river. Both Ukrainian and Russian reporting note multiple Russian probes across the river and through the defensive lines.

Unconfirmed reporting also notes that Russian forces appear to be attacking into Hulyaipole all along the east edge of the city (across the Haichur River, which runs south-east to north-west through Hulyaipole), but also now appear to be attacking from due south.\

Well west of Orikihiv, imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces made gains south if the center of Stepnohirsk, pushing south and regaining a foothold in the”dacha” area, the small apartment building complex just south of the city. As you may recall, these small apartment complexes built outside of many Ukrainian cities have been used by Ukrainian forces as ad hoc forts, with concrete apartment buildings (5-10 floors high) strongly reinforced so that they can withstand nearly any sort of ordnance short of a 500lb bomb. The result is that in every city there have developed hard fights for control of these “dachas.” 

Of interest, Russian forces appear to be using a new tactic to inflict casualties on Ukrainian forces: a small element of Russian forces will probe forward and get their picture taken by a drone, two soldiers standing and holding a Russian flag; the men then withdraw to Russian lines. The picture is then published and a recon drone then watches until Ukrainian troops press into the area to “reclaim" the spot, and these men are then struck by Russian drones. This tactic was apparently recently used, and proved effective, in drawing out Ukrainian forces in the small towns north-west of Hulyaipole. 

Fighting was again reported near the Antonovskiy bridge, but again there were no details. Fighting was also reported on several of the island in the Dnepr, from Kherson city to the mouth of the river.

While there were no details reported, these engagements in the past have consisted of small element raids by both sides across the river to sabotage and sometimes just to harass.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 15th-December 16th, Russian forces launched at least 69 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 57 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target.

Civilian casualties include at least 14 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 4 towns.

Released video clearly shows a large detonation beside the Russian Kilo class submarine in Novorossiysk, validating the report of a submerged drone striking the sub. 

Remarkably, the Russian flotilla in port had no simple netting around the piers - a la torpedo nets first deployed in the 1890s… 

The Russian Navy continues to contribute to Ukrainian morale.

During the night of December 14th-December 15th, Russian forces launched at least 153 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 133 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target. The attack initially left 430,000 people without electricity in Odessa oblast.

Civilian casualties include at least 6 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 6 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Dec15 Dec16

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 60.65 59.33

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 56.90 55.55

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 4.01 3.87

Wheat     8.52          5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.23 5.15

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 79.25 79.48

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 42.10 42.24

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 51.53 51.35

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 59.12 53.30

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 57.84 56.72

Urals oil is now at its lowest price since March 06, 2023 ($48.64)

Thoughts

Negotiations continue… A recent OpEd from Leonard Ragozin summed up the drama: at the heart of the discussion among the European nations is how to keep funding the war, as the leadership of Europe appear to not want to make any concessions to Russia. The war (funding Ukraine’s army, the government and the country’s social programs) calls for tens of billions per year that must come from one of two places: either from frozen Russian assets, or from EU states themselves. Exactly how much money Ukraine needs varies from source to source; Kyiv has a budget for 2026 of roughly $120 billion, with tax revenue of about $70 billion, a $50 billion deficit. The National Bank of Ukraine puts the gap at $35 billion, and there is speculation that they will need several billion at the end of this month. This need for external financing for day-to-day operations decreases over time, but extends out at least another 4 years (through 2029). 

Nor does this address the estimated $600 billion to $1 trillion in real damage to the countries buildings and infrastructure.

And whatever the precise numbers, Ukraine doesn’t have the money.

They could spend Russian assets but seizing Russian assets would presumably leave the rest of the world wondering about the security of banking in Europe, and, such an action is predicated on the assumption that spending the money on the war itself would lead to military defeat for Russia some time in 2026 or 2027. But as Ragozin notes: The obvious problem here is that exactly nobody – except war cheerleaders who have been promising Russia’s defeat for the past four years – believes this outcome is even remotely realistic.

Which leaves Europe with the only out being to fund the war through the EU budget, which would be strongly resisted by most of the people of Europe.

But, Ragozin notes that no additional funding “...would allow him [Zelenskyy] to declare that the West has betrayed Ukraine and proceed with the inevitable: accepting an unsavoury peace largely on Russia’s terms.”

Frederick the Great described strategy as a bridge connecting assets to your goal… When you run out of assets the plan needs to change. If you truly run out of assets, the goal needs to change. The talks in Europe seem to be silently pointing to participants recognizing that Ukraine may well run out of assets in 2026 and that it may be time to change the goal.

v/r and Merry Christmas - pete 

 December 15th, 2025 Happy Hanukkah! (14th-22nd)

Politics - Zelenskyy, Witkoff meting in Berlin

- Zelenskyy will drop NATO if US gives article 5 guarantee 

Combat Ops - Ukrainian forces gain ground in Kupyansk

- Grind continues in Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole

Weather

Kharkiv

28 and cloudy, snow showers possible tonight. Cloudy all week. Daily highs in the mod 30s, daily lows near freezing, except Thursday, which will see highs near 40. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

30 and cloudy, showers possible tonight. Cloudy all week. Daily highs through Wednesday in the upper 30s, daily lows in the lower 30s. Thursday through Saturday daily highs in the 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

35 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily highs will be in the mid to upper 30s, daily lows near freezing, wind chills in the low 20s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy and Ambassador Witkoff met today in Berlin

Following the meeting the Ukrainian National Security Council released the following:

Over the past two days, Ukrainian-US negotiations have been constructive and productive, with real progress achieved. We hope we will reach an agreement that will bring us closer to peace by the end of the day. There is a lot of noise and anonymous speculation in the media right now. Please don’t fall for rumors and provocations. The American team led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working extremely constructively to help Ukraine find a way to a peace agreement that lasts. The Ukrainian team is enormously grateful to President Trump and his team for all the efforts they are putting in.

Earlier, President Zelenskyy commented that Ukraine is prepared to end requests for NATO membership in exchange for a security guarantee from the US and Europe similar to article 5 of the North Atlantic Alliance.

“From the very beginning, Ukraine’s desire was to join NATO; these are real security guarantees. Some partners from the US and Europe did not support this direction.”

“Thus, today, bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the US, Article 5-like guarantees for us from the US, and security guarantees from European colleagues, as well as other countries – Canada, Japan – are an opportunity to prevent another Russian invasion. And it is already a compromise from our part.”

Zelenskyy had also commented on the differences between negotiating positions held by the US and Ukraine 

"We and Russia have different positions as regards territory… I believe the US, as a mediator, will propose steps to find at least some consensus. I hope the US will continue to play a mediating role in these matters."

"Of course, not all the issues are simple; some are particularly complex, especially regarding territories. Obviously, everyone raises this issue, and it's important that we all work to ensure these matters are handled fairly. There has been extensive dialogue on the territories, and it seems we still hold different positions, but I believe my counterparts have listened to my personal stance.”

Chancellor Merz feels that there is now a chance for peace.

"We'll walk the path to peace together with you, with Ukrainians, with our European neighbours, and also with the United States. I believe that today we've taken a good step on this path and will take the next one."

"This will not knock us off our path. We're pursuing five goals that we, Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans, have agreed upon together.”

-  a ceasefire that preserves Ukraine's sovereignty.

• the ceasefire must be secured by legal and material security guarantees from the United States and the Europeans - US proposed legal guarantees he viewed as: ”This is real progress, which I very much welcome.”
• developing the ceasefire together – the Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans
• the ceasefire must preserve Ukraine's European perspective and contribute to Ukraine's recovery

"Yesterday and today we made important progress in agreeing on a joint negotiating position. In confidential conversations, we explained our positions in detail and listened to one another. I hope that this evening we will make the next step forward to close ranks between Ukraine, the United States and Europe."

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting grinds on but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines north of Sumy city.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines here or in the border region north of the Oskil river.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk, with Ukrainian forces appearing to have retaken much of the previously occupied sections of the city, and only several small Russian elements appear to be isolated in the center and south center of the city.

What is also of note is that the Russian force presence in general area has seemed to decline even as the Ukrainian presence has increased, with Ukrainian forces plussing up the forces by one or two brigades beginning in November and Russian forces over the past week or so (perhaps longer) appear to have withdrawn several brigades, essentially giving up the fight for the city. 

It has not been clear how big a force the Russians had actually pushed into the city; with reporting running from “less than 200” (a comment made by President Zelenskyy several weeks ago) to about two battalions (from multiple sources, which seemed reasonable), to “1 or 2 brigades,” based on Russian bloggers. 

Today, the assessment was there were perhaps 150 Russian remaining inside Kupyansk.

In any case, the Ukrainian forces moved into the area by early November and managed over the past 2 weeks to sever Russian lines of communication into their forces in the center of the city, cutting off some, forcing others to withdraw, and Ukrainian forces now seem to once again control the city.

Nevertheless, Russian forces continue to probe into the city, suggesting that any withdrawal was simply battlefield necessity and they remain committed to taking the city, but currently lack the assets to do so.

Further south there was a reduced number of engagements reported and no changes in the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut, hard fighting continues around Siversk, and the actual front line around Siversk remains difficult to exactly define. Some reporting suggest Russian forces control most of Siversk, having pushed up to the banks of the Bakhmutovka River as it snakes through the city, with just the north-west quarter of the city held by Ukrainians; other reporting suggests Russian forces have progressed no further west than the rail line that cuts the city into an eastern and western half, and further reporting suggests Ukraine forces still retain parts of Sviato-Pokrovske just to the south-west.

That said, the Russians appear to have at least 5 brigades engaged in taking Siversk and Sviato-Pokrovske with an artillery brigade in support.

North-west of Toretsk fighting continues in the eastern end of Kostiantinivka. Imagery confirmed that on Thursday Ukrainian  forces retook some terrain on the very east end of the city. But, Russian probes into the city and Russian efforts to take and hold some terrain on the edge of the city have been more successful than was expected, given that Kostiantinivka is the first of the major cities on the “fortress belt,” and suggests to me that Russian tactics continue to evolve and become more successful at penetrating defensive positions.

West of Toretsk, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, there was a good deal of fighting reported along the front lines but there were no confirmed changes to the line.

Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk pocket continues to be the center of a good deal of fighting and reporting, but sorting out exactly what is happening remains difficult.

Inside Pokrovsk itself there are several reliable reports of at least one Ukrainian element holding a position inside the city - surrounded by Russian forces, and a similar situation exists in the city of Rivne (just north-east of Pokrovsk). As for the pocket, that has been squeezed to roughly the north half of the city of Myrnohrad. Russian forces have pushed into the east side of the city and fighting is now being reported about a half mile east of the center of the city.

Also of note, some reporting suggests that Ukrainian forces have reopened at least one road into the city from the west, though it would seem that the gap, which is at most 3,000 yards across, would easily be covered by artillery and drones. And some reporting continues to show that the mouth of the pocket has, in fact, been closed. Ukrainian forces continue to attack from the north-west and and there is a Ukrainian force of unknown size on the north-west edge of Pokrovsk.

Fighting continues southwest of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha river, but there were no confirmed gains along the line in this area. Anecdotal reporting continues to suggest that Russian forces are slowly occupying the terrain north of Dachne, east of Filliia and that Russian forces have now reached the immediate vicinity of Novopavlivka from the north-east.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There was fighting just south of the Vovcha River, but there are no confirmed changes in this area. Further south, in the terrain north of Hulyaipole, Russian forces appear to have pushed down the T0401 roadway and entered Varvarivka. Whether they have control of that town or not is unclear, though it appears that they do. If so, this gives Russian forces an advantage in attacking Hulyaipole, as they will be able to attack it from west of the Haichur River; behind nearly all defensive positions in the city.

As for Hulyaipole itself, fighting is taking place in eastern Hulyaipole and along most of the north-east edge of the city, but Ukrainian forces are currently holding.

Further west, fighting was reported on some islands in the Dnepr River and near the Antonovskiy bridge, but there were, as normal, no details given.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 14th-December 15th, Russian forces launched at least 153 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF has yet to report on numbers engaged.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and the Ukrainain General Staff is reporting that the Astrakhan gas processing plant in Kyiv has been struck.

Civilian casualties include at least 6 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 6 towns.

During the three nights of December 11th-December 14th, Russian forces launched at least 4 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 6 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x Iskander cruise missiles, 16 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 683 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace, targeting the power grid and transportation assets across eastern and central Ukraine. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 13 cruise missiles, and 591 drones.

Civilian casualties include at least 14 civilians injured. More than 1 million households suffered blackouts over the weekend. 

For the week of December 7th - December 14th Russian forces launched more than 1,500 Shahed drones, 500 glide bombs and 46 missiles into Ukrainian airspace. 

Over the weekend Ukrainian forces again struck an oil and gas platform in the Caspian Sea; there is no current damage assessment.

A Ukrainian sea-borne drone (a “Sea Baby” USV) struck a Russian Kilo class submarine in Novorossiysk. Independent damage assessment pending.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Dec12 Dec15

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.00 60.65

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.33 56.90

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 4.09 4.01

Wheat     8.52          5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.31 5.23

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 79.56 79.25

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 42.20 42.10

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 51.94 51.53

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 54.56 59.12

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 58.23 57.84

Urals oil is now at its lowest price since March 2023

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy’s compromise - dropping NATO membership request in exchange for an Article 5 guarantee from the US - would seem to be too big an ask. The US - and at least 5 other NATO countries - have repeatedly spoken against NATO membership for Ukraine precisely because of Article 5 guarantees. 

And while article 5 says that “an attack against one is an attack against all,” it is not an automatic commitment; each country’s laws and constitutions remain in effect and the various governments must decide how they will react.

Nevertheless, the understanding is that an attack on a member - or a country with such a guarantee, would mean the others, in this case the US, would go to war in support of the attacked country - Ukraine.

Not only is the US unlikely to accept that, Russia is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire that is predicated on that point.

Said differently, the words sound good, but they translate into: the war goes on.

v/r pete