October 30th Russia - Ukraine

I am unable to pull together the full summary for the next 10 days but there are some developments and I’ve been talking them over with some smart folks so here are a few paragraphs to chew on.

A comment from BG Marchenko (Ukrainian Army) early yesterday (morning of the 29th) set off alarm bells, but they were to some extent expected; Marchenko suggested that the front south-east of Pokrovsk was collapsing:

"We all know, I won't reveal a military secret if I say that our front has collapsed. Unfortunately, the "orcs" have already entered Selydove and are entrenched there. I think that in the near future they will circle it and capture it completely, which will give them a tactical exit to Pokrovsk.”

Marchenko commented that the army suffered from lack of ammunition, insufficient manning, and "unbalanced management” - no elaboration on the last point.

By this morning it appears the Selydove has indeed been taken by the Russian army.

But the Russian army is gaining elsewhere, as well. In the “corner,” where the eastern front and the southern front come together (the town of Vuhledar), Russian forces are pressing northwards and westward, have captured 3 towns in the last several days and the reporting suggest they’re still moving, that at least at this point along the front that resistance has broken down and the Russian army is advancing steadily.

If this reporting is accurate, within several days here will be a “cauldron” holding a brigade or more of Ukrainian troops, circled by Russian troops, in the terrain (roughly) between Marinka, Kurakhove, and Yelyzavetivka, and the Russians will control the terrain east of the road from Kurakhove to Velyka Novosilke.

And north of the Donets River, Russian forces are pressing on Terny in the south and further north Russian forces west of Pishchane have reached the Oskil River and pushed south along the banks of the river and are now pushing into Zahryzove.

Nowhere along the front do the Russians appear to be losing ground.

Which warrants looking at what BG Marchenko said: there is a manpower shortage.

In the last few weeks as you’ll recall, the numbers have filtered out on Ukrainian recruiting, Ukrainian desertions, and Ukrainian casualties. Of course, it doesn’t matter how many losses you’ve suffered, if you still have enough people to man your units.

But an interesting number that I saw this morning is that the Ukrainian army is starting a recruiting drive to bring in another 160,000 recruits and that with 160,000 more troops they could raise their combat force manning to 85%, in an army currently of 1,050,000.

A “back of the envelope” calculation suggests that operational units in the Ukrainian army are currently manned at somewhere between 60 % and 70%. Anecdotal reporting suggests the same thing. Further, very few of these units have had time “off the line.” Some, in fact, have been on the line, engaged in combat, for more than a year, with casualties replaced by raw soldiers who have never trained as a unit.

Mix all the rest of the numbers: Ukrainian casualty estimates - conservative numbers: 115,000 KIA, 550,000 WIA, 90,000 desertions, and with very poor morale both in the army and cross the country, and BG Marchenko’s comment that the front has collapsed is understandable. (These numbers compare to Russia’s of about 95,000 KIA and 350,000 WIA, and about 10,000 desertions.)

The high desertion rate, and the high casualty counts, explain the tremendous number of army recruit eligible ages men in Europe (more than 800,000) who are uninterested in returning to Ukraine. When Poland, in concert with the Ukrainian government, tried to generate enthusiasm for a Ukrainian - Polish legion this past summer, only 186 of those 800,000 expressed any interest at all in joining such a legion.

Said differently, morale is very poor. So, the fear now, of course, is that a front will break and the poor morale will make recovery of the line that much more difficult.

And this morning it appear that indeed, Selydove (about 10 - 12 miles south-south-east of Pokrovsk) has been taken by the Russians. 

Taking Selydove sets the Russian army up to drive further west, to a position south-west of Pokrovsk, allowing them to attack the town beyond the heavy defensive lines to the east and south-east.

This will also further isolate the terrain between Vuhledar and Marinka.

What we can expect in the next few weeks - and maybe less if Marchenko was accurate when he used the term “collapsed” - is a further hard push by the Russians to push further west past Selydove while also straightening their lines to the south, closing up the would-be pockets west and south-west of of Donetsk City.

And there will be more “fierce” fighting along the Oskil and Zherebets Rivers.

The problem is manpower, as BG Marchenko said, but also policy: Ukrainian forces needed to build a strong defensive line deeper into the country and once built fall back and hold them. Instead, they tried to hold ground and traded casualties instead. The high command accepted the Russian way of war - attrition - and now it appears they may be running out of people.

v/r pete

 October 25th, 2024 Next Summary November 11th

Overall  

Ground Operations         - More Russian gains 

Air Operations - Daily strikes

Power Grid           - Could be a dark winter

Politics                  - Putin did not reject peace offer

                - More North Korean Troops

Weather

Kharkiv

51 and cloudy. Saturday will be sunny, then  cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows will be in the 30, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

52 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy for the next week, daily lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

50 and cloudy. Partly cloudy to cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues on both sides of the salient and lines continue to “see-saw” back and forth, with Russian forces regaining ground south-east of Korenevo and Ukrainian forces retaking some of that terrain in the same 24 hour period.  Russian forces also regained some ground south, and east, of Korenevo

Further west, Ukrainian forces retain a toe hold in the area of Novy Put, but there were no confirmed changes to the positions held.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces remain on the offensive but made no confirmed gains in the small pockets north of Kharlkiv.

North of the Donets

Russian forces made confirmed gains in several locations to include pushing into the town of Novosadove on the Zherebets River, just north of Terny.  Taking Novosadiove would allow the Russians to operate west of the Zherebets River and is a significant gain if confirmed. Further north, Russian forces west of Pishchane appear to be pressing on Kruhlyakivka (another town on the Oskil, from the north and north east.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut Russian forces made confirmed gains south-east of Soversk in the area of Vyimka.

Fighting continues north, east and south-east of Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Fighting continues in central Toretsk and imagery of the last 2 days shows Ukraine forces have retaken several blocks in the center of the city.

Donetsk City

The fight for Pokrovsk remains focused on the fight for the town of Selydove, south-east of Pokrovsk about 10 miles. The Russians control the terrain north, east and south of the town, have taken the towns abutting Selydove on those sides, and have pushed in to parts of Selydove itself, but Ukrainian forces maintain their positions in the north side of the town. While there is some fighting taking place due east of Pokrovsk, the Russian focus right now is on Selydove, and that seems to be the main effort in this area. 

Some analysts suggests that this singular Russian focus is detracting from achieving the overall goal of taking Pokrovsk (and by extension, the rest of Donetsk Oblast). It should be remembered however, that the defenses around Pokrovsk are heaviest due east of the town and less so to the north and south. Taking Selydove would not only serve to cut the lines of communication from the center to the south-east, it would also simplify, at least to some extent, the process of circling Pokrovsk and attacking the town across less well developed defensive lines to the south and south-west.

On the south side of the (mostly closed) pocket under the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces remain active in the Kurakhove and Maksymilyanivka areas, but there were no confirmed changes in the forward line.

The Russian attack on Bohoiavlenka (north-west of Vodyane), seems to have evolved to just the attack from the Vodyane area, and the attack from the Preshystivka area (west of Vuhledar) doesn't seem to be very active.

From the Vodyane area, Russian forces continue to press north-west and anecdotal reporting suggests that they are gaining ground, but that has not been confirmed. Additional fighting is taking place both north of Vodyane, and to the west of Vuhledar with more reported Russian gains in both, but again, these were not confirmed.

Southern Ukraine

Russian forces continue to slowly press north from the Robotyne area and have reached the vicinity of Novodanylivka, the small town 2 miles south of Orikhiv. Where the front line is, isn’t to clear, but looking at the maps at various blogs it would seem the Russian line has crept several miles north of Robotyne and is perhaps a bit more than 2 miles south-west of Novodanylivka.  Again, note that the scarcity of reporting from the south is producing what looks like a stop and start series of actions but it is probable that there has been a slow but steady grind in the area and it simply can't be seen given the level of coverage. 

Fighting continues elsewhere across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr, but there were no reports of any gains or losses.

Air Operations 

During the night of 24-25 October Russian forces launched 63 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. Initial reports note that the UAF claimed to have shot down 36 drones. How many were defeated by EW (‘Got Lost”) has not yet been reported, but fires from downed drones were reported at several sites around Kyiv.

During the night of October 23-24 Russian Forces launched 2 x Kh-22 cruise missiles, 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles, and 50 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 40 drones, 7 drones were lost (defeated by EW) and 2 drones flew into Belarus. Damage was reported to a transformer in the Kyiv area.

Power Grid

Overall, Ukrainian power grid and energy related targets sustained 42 hits over the past week.

Ivan Fedorov, Head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, commented yesterday that resident of the Ukraine controlled slice of Zaporizhzhia Oblast should prepare for a complete lack of electricity.

"People may not like this, as we’re dealing with very stark realities. But let’s prepare for the worst. If things go better, that’ll be great. What do we need to do? We need to double our backup. Install one generator, and then a second one.”

Nevertheless, central heating facilities will have back-up power sources.

“The delay and the fact this wasn’t done before the heating season are due to the enormous demand for cogeneration systems across Ukraine. No production facility in the world can meet the needs of a large country like Ukraine. Plus, we don’t have the funds.”

"Our partners are financing them, and they’ve purchased them for us. The first cogeneration units will arrive in Zaporizhzhia by 15 November. We hope the connection will take up to a month. So we’re reserving this option.”

Politics and Diplomacy

President Putin told the Russian News Agency RIA that during the UN General Assembly in New York in September that Turkey received a proposal from Ukraine, to pass to Russia, about taking steps to secure grain and energy facilities:

"Türkiye also presented an initiative concerning the Black Sea situation: to ensure safe shipping, establish certain agreements and reach security arrangements regarding nuclear energy facilities."

Putin said he agreed but shortly thereafter President Zelenskyy made public his Victory Plan, which Putin felt cancelled out any talks.

Putin also said yesterday that any proposal must take into account the terrain now held by Russian forces and must be “based on the realities on the ground.”

The Republic of Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) is reporting (per Bloomberg) that a second element of North Koran troops have moved into facilities in the greater Vladivostok area to begin a training period, estimated at one month in length, to prepare them for war in Ukraine.

NIS also reports that an NK three star general will be in overall command.

Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that the first North Korean soldiers arrived in the Kursk area on the 23rd; further, Ukrainian intelligence said that they expect the North Korean unit to moved into a combat role on the 27th or 28th of October.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Oct24 Oct25

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 75.47 75.37

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 71.32 71.18

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.43 2.51

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.79 5.82

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 96.83 96.80

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.29 41.33

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.79 67.79

ESPO 65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 68.39 67.51

Thoughts 

The might be a hint that the loose peace offering made by Zelenskyy isn’t dead. 

First, Putin didn’t flatly reject it, and the usual players (ForMin Lavrov and the often rabid Deputy National Security Council member Medvedev) have not made statements against it.

Further, the fact that Putin brought up that he had accepted a similar idea when proposed, all suggest that there is some small reason to be hopeful

In addition, there is the simple truth that the Zelenskyy victory plan has failed before it got out of the starting blocks. As pointed out yesterday, 7 NATO countries do not want to offer NATO membership to Ukraine.

Further, the US again rejected full range use of US weapons (which also effect long range weapons for several other countries that use US systems or data). So the first two, and most important, elements of the Victory Plan will not happen.

So, the Victory Plan appears to have stalled out, Russia is still grinding away in some sectors of the front line, Ukraine’s manpower problems have recently moved under a spotlight with recent stories in the press about very large number of Ukrainian desertions, and the arrival of North Koreans soldiers in Kursk suggest Putin may have solved his manpower problems without a general mobilization.

And winter is approaching.

All of this speaks to negotiating now not later.

v/r pete

 

October 24th, 2024                  Treaty of Westphalia 1648

Overall  

Ground Operations - More Russian gains 

Politics  - BRICS Statement - not much for Putin

Peace offers - Zelenskyy makes a bid?

Weather

Kharkiv

56 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Saturday will be sunny but otherwise cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows will be near 30, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

57 and sunny, gusting to 20. Cloudy on Friday then. Week of mostly sunny weather. Daily lows in the 40s (possibly 30s during the weekend), daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

48 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly cloudy to cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Both sides have had confirmed gains over the last 24 - 48 hours in the terrain south-east and east of Korenevo, but the key datum is that the Russians continue to inch forward east of of Korenevo, closing the gap towards Russian troops pressing on from the east side of the salient. The result is that there are elements of a Ukrainian brigade (how many isn’t clear) north of the Russian troops and hence susceptible to being cut off; the Russian forces pushing eastward are perhaps 2.5 miles from Russian troops pushing in from the east side of the salient.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along much of the line of contact with Russian forces having some confirmed gains east and south-east of Kupaynsk but Russian forces also reporting gains elsewhere along the line but these gains could not be confirmed.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Russian sources made conflicting claims of gains around Chasiv Yar, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) denied all of them, and several major pro-Ukrainian blogs show alternatively that the Russians have made gains in and just south of Chasiv Yar; and that they have not.

Trying to make sense of all this, my guess is that there are a series of see-saw battles around the north and east perimeter of Chasiv Yar, and across the Donets canal, and that bth sides are having difficulty holding onto terrain at the forward edge of lines. That said, it appears that the Russians have made some gains along the T0504 roadway towards the south-west, and probably control that roadway as far as due north of the small town of Stupochky, just south of Chasiv Yar, about a mile west of the Donets canal.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to attack Toretsk from the east and the south, but there were no confirmed gains in the last 24 hours. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian elements were sighted Shcherbynivka, west of Toretsk; if accurate this would place Russian forces within striking distance of the T0516 roadway that runs north-west out of Toretsk and is the major Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) into the town. Controlling or cutting the GLOC into Toretsk would, of course’s seriously weaken the Ukrainian defense.

Donetsk City

East of Pokrovks Russian control of Hrodivka was confirmed by the Ukrainian army. South-east of Pokrovsk, Russian forces made more small gains in the northeast edge of Selydove, and to the south-east now control all of Imailivka (on the south-east edge  of Selydove). Additional gains were noted further to the south-east, in the vicinity of Himyk, as the Russians press to straighten lines and close up would-be salients.

Russian forces continue to press on Selydove from the north and south and east and it is likely that Ukrainian forces will soon be pressured to withdraw to avoid encirclement. Analysts have noted that Russian efforts to take Selydove, and Ukrainian resistance in Selydove, have slowed the Russian push on Pokrovsk. While this is undoubtedly true in the general sense, Russian artillery has already inflicted substantial damage on Pokrovsk, the city has just a small slice of its citizens remaining inside, and the use of the city as a supply and personnel hub has already been severely impacted. What we also don’t know is the actual losses on both sides. 

Further south, fighting continues around Kurakhove, and Kurakhivka (respectively south and north of the Vovcha reservoir) but there were no confirmed changes in the line. 

Further south, Russian forces continue to press westward from the line north of Vuhledar, and forces pushing north-west from Vodyane are less than 2 miles from Bohoyavlenka.

There were no confirmed changes to the line across Southern Ukraine. Of note, reporting from the southern Ukraine lines counties to be sparse and there is spotty reporting that suggest that  the Russians have concentrated forces just west of Velyka Novosilke, and also south of Orikhiv, that there is some nasty fighting taking place and that the Russians are gaining some ground. But there is nothing to confirm this.

Air Operations

Russian air defense forces shot down 10 x Ukrainian drones and destroyed 4 surface drones west of Crimea  on the 23rd.

During the night of the 22nd - 23rd Russian forces launched 1 x Kh-31P and 81 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The Kh-31 struck a facility in Odessa; the UAF claimed it shot down 57 drones and 17 drones “became lost” (were defeated by EW).

A Russian MI Battalion commander equivalent commented that Russia is testing drone swarm technology in the vicinity of Chasiv war as part of their counter-EW tactics. 

An unconfirmed report notes that 20+ Ukrainian drones struck infrastructure in Ernohodar, the town and general area around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and cut electricity to a dozen towns.

Politics

The BRICS Summit in Kazan, Tatarstan, ((BRICS = Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) attendees at the conference included Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE) produced a declaration yesterday that stated that all parties should act in accordance with the UN charter; ie, it failed to produce any statement favorable to Russia or Russia’s war in Ukraine. While the statement didn’t condemn the war (it only mentioned Ukraine once), the Russians were hoping for a pro-Russia statement and didn’t get it.

The conference attendees also called for mediating the war in Ukraine and an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

North Korea: The latest from the Pentagon on North Korean forces heading into Russia is that 2 x 6,000 man “Brigades” were training inside Russia in the Vladivostok area (normal brigades are usually 3,000 strong, though US Brigade combat teams - a normal brigade augmented with a complete range of additional elements - from artillery and armor to medical and intelligence, etc. -  can be more than 6,000 strong. 

Then a report from Ukrainian Defense Intelligence that noted that North Korea troops were seen in Kursk today. Ukrainian Intel also noted that the force was 500 officer and 11,500 troops, and includes 3 x generals.

During the BRICS conference Putin was asked about the North Korea troops, specifically: "What are they doing here? Isn't this a serious escalation of the conflict?"

Putin responded that "it was not Russia's actions that led to the escalation.” He then mentioned the Duma had ratified the "comprehensive strategic partnership" with the DPRK, which provides “mutual defense.” 

Politico reported today that there are currently 7 nations in NATO that oppose offering NATO membership to Ukraine: Belgium, Germany, Hungary Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and the US. NATO Membership requires unanimous consent among all members.

Peace Proposal - First Bid?

President Zelenskyy made an interesting statement yesterday: Ukraine would be willing to enter into talks if Russia would end strikes on energy infrastructure and shipping.

“When it comes to energy and freedom of navigation, getting a result on these points would be a signal that Russia may be ready to end the war. In other words, we do not attack their energy infrastructures; they don’t attack ours.”

“Could this lead to the end of the war’s hot phase? I think so.”

There has been no response from Moscow yet.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Oct23 Oct24

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 75.57 75.47

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 71.34 71.32

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.35 2.43

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.76 5.79

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 96.45 96.83

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.29 41.29

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 68.95 67.79

ESPO 65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 68.61 68.39

Thoughts 

President Zelenskyy went on to comment that there was no suggestion that Ukraine would cede territory and there was no one in his government that was going to cede any terrain.

The one country that has really lived through this sort of thing, Korea, fought a war that lasted 37 months, compared to 31 months for Ukraine (technically, it’s still “on”) and resulted in almost 3 million dead, an order of magnitude more violent than the war in Ukraine, and the South signed an armistice but has not ceded any territory.

Rather, there has been an armistice, which is a fancy word for ceasefire. As it was explained to me many years ago, what an armistice really translates into is: “We’re not going to shoot - today.” 

But Korea has not ceded that territory, and won’t. Still, the shooting ended (mostly).

Ukraine could take the same position. Then, a DMZ would be created, armed to the teeth, Ukrainian forces would be rebuilt, modernized, trained, and they would settle in for some future date when there might be peace. In the meantime, there would be a ceasefire.

v/r pete