This Cannot Be Considered Severe

The officer in overall command noted, on the day after the initial attack, that “This [the number of casualties] cannot be considered severe in view of the numbers engaged and the length of the front attacked.”

The officer was General Sir Douglas Haig, and he wrote those lines on July 2nd, 1916, two days into the Battle of the Somme. 19,240 British army soldiers were killed on the first day of the battle, plus 35,493 wounded. The battle dragged on until November, 1916, with the British and Commonwealth armies suffering 95,600 KIAs and 419,600 WIA, while the French suffered 50,700 KIA and 204,500 WIA. The Germans suffered 164,000 KIA and 465,000 WIA. The British attack penetrated just over 6 miles into German held terrain. 

Haig was promoted to Field Marshall in January of 1917.

While the war in Ukraine has - so far - failed to produce that level of bloodletting - yet, it is perhaps worth while to remember that there was little benefit to the West in continuing the Great War after the horrors of the first two years. Might ending the war in 1916 resulted in something different than the end the Tsars, the rise of the Soviet Union, and the rise of the NAZI party? There is no way to know. But it is difficult to imagine that there could have been a worse outcome.

Sometimes it is best to simply stop.

At the same time, NATO and the West as a whole need to take a deep breath. Russia is not going to decide to invade or not to invade NATO Europe based on the Russian army’s performance in this war. War with NATO would not be a conventional war; it would be forced into a nuclear exchange in short order. Conventional forces are necessary to contain, to provide options both in Europe and elsewhere, and to deter at the low end of conflict; but they will not deter Russian war or any great power war. 

Nuclear weapons kept the Soviet Union out of Europe and keep Russia out of Europe. And will keep Russia out of Europe. Nuclear weapons will also keep China out of Taiwan, and will keep South Korea free. Only if we forget that are Taiwan and the ROK at risk.

Meanwhile, the Russian army continues pushing forward in eastern Ukraine and taking more towns.

But don’t be confused. On a daily basis the Russian goal is NOT to take terrain. The number one goal is to inflict casualties. Not to put too fine an edge on it, the goal of the Russian army is to kill or severely wound Ukrainian soldiers. And despite what is reported in most western news feeds, they are succeeding. Are the Russian taking casualties? Indeed, they are. Roughly the same numbers as the Ukrainians, perhaps a few more in some months, and a few less in some months; the numbers that come out of Kyiv are, shall we say, manipulated a bit.

And Ukraine has a population less than one-quarter the size of Russia’s.

It’s true that Ukraine is backed by the West, with a combined GDP more than 20 times that of Russia. And substantially better technology. And 5 times as many people as Russia.

But we have bureaucracies that lack will, and talent. 40 months into this war and the US and Europe cannot figure out how to push weapon production numbers any higher than they have; this is a condemnation of the leadership across much of the US and European military-industrial complex. And an equal or greater condemnation of the “thinkers” in academia, the think tanks, and the war colleges who wasted the last 3 decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union effectively contemplating their navels, turning those 30 years into a strategic wasteland.

In virtually any serious discussion in the last 30 years officers below the rank of admiral or general would routinely point out the need for more ordnance and more production capacity “just in case.” This was routinely ignored. Now we seemingly don't know how to fix it, as Ukraine calls for more and more weaponry.

And this war grinds on, killing soldiers at a rate of perhaps 100 per day on each side, many days more than twice that, and yet there are people in the news who seemed nearly gleeful that President Trump did not produce a ceasefire on Friday. You can hate Trump if you wish, but he and the Pope were the only voices in the West calling for an end to this war. And the losses Ukraine has suffered this year could not have been prevented no matter what level of aid that might have been provided.

Ukraine is caught in a war of attrition with a larger country; they have made a monstrous strategic mistake in deciding to engage in attrition warfare with Russia, and there is little chance under any circumstances for anything that looks like victory. They need to stop.

What remains ahead is this: Russia needs to be pressed - through carrots and sticks - into a ceasefire. That means Ukraine will need to be ready to bargain, as unpleasant as that sounds.

The US and NATO need to fix their “military industrial complex.” Start by making the organizations really lean: fire more generals and admirals and senior civilians. Many of these are good folks, try to save the good ones. But we need really lean organizations. That is a place to start.

Take a hard look at US nuclear weapons policy, particularly theater nuclear weapons policy. We do not want wars with great powers, we want to deter wars with great powers - that is what nuclear weapons do - and that includes theater nuclear weapons.

And fire anyone who thinks continuing the war in Ukraine is a good idea.