August 8th 2025  

Politics  - Nothing new on Trump - Putin meeting

- India - Russia committed to partnership

Combat Ops - No change in Kupyansk

- Incremental Russian gains west of Toretsk

- Incremental Russian gains NE of Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

78 and sunny. Cloudy tonight and tomorrow morning, then mostly sunny through the middle of next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs near 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

84 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

77 and mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny on Saturday, then partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain Sunday night and early Monday. Daily lows upper 50s, highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Nothing new on meeting(s) between Trump and Putin or Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy, when or where… still being “worked” by the various staffs.

Trump did point out that Putin does not need to agree with Zelenskyy in order to meet with him.

India and Russia stated that they are committed to a “strategic partnership” after Trump announced higher tariffs on imports from India.

The EU approved the 4th tranche of support to Ukraine - 3.2 billion Euros ($3.7 billion).

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Russian forces attacked along much of the front in their claimed border region north of Sumy, and claimed gains in and around Yunkivka, but this has not been confirmed. At thesame time Ukrainian forces counter attacked at multiple point along the line, but again there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Fighting continued north of Kharkiv and Russian forces claimed small gains near Vovchansk but these have not been confirmed.

Fighting was also reported along the border, near the small salient the Russians control around Milove (about 12 miles north of the Oskil River where it crosses the Russia - Ukraine border), but there was no change in the terrain controlled by the Russians.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

Reporting is mixed on Russian presence inside Kupyansk and inside Sobolivka, suggesting Russian forces do not fully control that town, but Ukrainian reporting does confirm Russian elements are in Sobolivka, and Russian elements are in the northern edge of Kupyansk. Actual numbers and how far they have pushed south are still up in the air.

It’s worth noting that there is one bridge that crosses the Oskil river from central Kupyansk and several south of the city that are controlled by Ukrainian forces. There have also been multiple pontoon bridges set up over the river and they have been repeatedly struck by Russian tacair. But once you move past the bridges just east of Osynovo (not quite 4 miles south of Kupyansk), the next bridge over the river that is controlled on both ends by Ukrainian forces is the bridge that connects Horokhovatka and Borova (about 25 miles south),

That said, the Oskil dries out during the summer and there are places where it can be forded; in September, 2022 Russian forces, retreating after the collapse of their position just south-east of Kharkiv, waded across the Oskil. Heavy gear would, of course, have to be abandoned, but if necessary, Ukrainian forces can probably still withdraw from the pocket south-east of Kupyansk if the city falls, even if the bridges are dropped.

Further south, there were no confirmed changes but Russian forces south-east of Borova (between Borova and Lyman), continue to press west and south-west and there are unconfirmed reports of small Russian gains at multiple points along the south and west perimeter of the Russian salient. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues both north-east and south-east of Siversk, with Russian forces attacking westerly, appearing to try to set up a double-pincer to envelope Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines in this area.

In the Chasiv Yar area, the Ukrainian element that moved up the T-0504 roadway and into the forest area north-east of Stupochky appears to have withdrawn. The Ukrainian elements on the south side of that same forest area remain and continue to hold but it appears as if Russian forces are attacking their positions from several sides and their position is tenuous.

There are reports of Russian gains west of Chasiv Yar, but these have not been confirmed.

Russian reporting notes that the last resistance has ended in Toretsk and the town (the ruins) are now completely in Russian hands. Toretsk has been in de facto Russian control for several months, presumably this is a statement that the last Ukrainian elements have either withdraw or been taken.

West of Toretsk, Russian forces reported fighting in central Katerynivka (the town just south of the Kleban Byk Reservoir). Russian forces claim to already control the town and in a certain sense they do, but Ukrainian elements remain in the town and refuse to withdraw. Which leads to what can only described as quite vicious fighting by the Russians to find them and eliminate them, a de facto fight to the death in many cases. There are, in fact, multiple reports of Russian gains south of the Kleban Byk reservoir, an area the Russians claim to have controlled for more than a week. In practical terms, the Russians do control it, in that they have cut the ground lines of communication (GLOC) into the area south of the reservoir, but Ukrainian forces are holding onto pockets and are probably being resupplied across the reservoir.

At the same time, Russian forces pushed west from Bila Hora; reporting is not clear but it would seem the Russians control at least the eastern half of the small town of Oleksandro Shultyne.

Further west, (west of the T0504 roadway) Russian reports claim gains in the Rusyn Yar and Poltavka areas.

Further west, around Pokrovsk, the fight for the town of Kotlyne continues and Russian forces, are once again trying to get control of that town after losing control of at least the north-west corner to Ukrainian forces.

North of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to claim small gains in Rodynske and Krasnyi Lyman and eastern Myrnohrad, but none of this has been confirmed.

Fighting also continues south-west of Pokrovsk, along the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk oblast border area in several spots, but there were no confirmed changes in the line. Nevertheless, it does appear the Russian forces just north of the Vovcha River has pushed past Zelenyi Kut and Dachne and are fighting on the southern edge of Fillia, on the east side of the Solone River.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting - probes and artillery and drone strikes - continues south of the Vovcha and across southern Ukraine to the Dnepr, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line in the entire area.

Air Operations

During the night of August 7th-August 8th Russian forces launched 108 x Shahed drones and 8 x jet-powered drones (probably Geran 3 drones) into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 79 Shahed drones and 3 jet powered drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava Sumy oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 5 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of August 6th-August 7th Russian forces launched 112 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 89 drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts. Power is out in parts of Kherson and there is an evacuation ongoing in certain neighborhoods of Kherson city (bridges connecting parts of the city to others have also come under attack, which is part of the reason for the evacuation).

RuAF tacair struck 14 Ukrainian towns.

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Ukrainian drones hit the Afipsky Oil Refinery (in Krasnodar Krai - east of the Sea of. Azov) during the night of 6-7 August. Imagery confirmed a fire at the facility. 

Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reports that Russian Shahed drone production reached 170 per day in June of this year and will reach 190 per day by the end of the year.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Aug7 Aug8

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 67.02 66.90

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 64.53 64.29

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 3.07 3.06

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.18

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 79.14 79.74

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.45 41.39

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 64.96 63.17

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 69.09 68.63

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 63.53 62.57

Thoughts

Al Jazeera, which has provided fair, and clearly pro-Ukrainian, coverage of the war, released a report on conscription in Ukraine, calling it a crisis. On top of the alleged abuses by conscription patrols, they report on a system that, they assert, become quite corrupt, with conscription officers extorting substantial amounts of money from young me to let them slip across the border in Eastern Europe. But most importantly, it suggests a society in crisis.

Young men are seized, brutalized, in some cases forced to act out an escape that is filmed, then they must pay to get the film, and pay for an exit permit.

Fees - extortion fees - run from $400 to $2,000 for release from custody’s and $15,000 for an exit permit. As you may recall, Ukraine’s per capita income is less than $6,000. 

The actual number of such events is unknown, though the Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman received more than 2,000 complaints of recruiter abuse in the first 5  months of 2025. But many men are too terrified to report the abuse and instead try to disappear.

At the same time there is said to be a growing split in society between those who have served in the army and those who have not, with reports that several hundred thousand men remain essentially in hiding in Ukraine, and more than 1 million men still in Europe.

And, as of December 2024, more than 100,000 Ukrainian men have been charged with desertion, and the rate was, as of November 2024, 6,000 per month, suggesting the number could be approaching 150,000 desertions; by way of comparison, desertions in the Russian army are on the order of 20,000 total, and between 650,000 and 900,000 are estimated to have fled the country.

v/r pete