August 1st 2025   NEXT SUMMARY 05 AUGUST

Politics  - President Trump fires back at Medvedev

Combat Ops - Chasiv Yar under Russian control

- Air strike - power out in Sumy oblast

Weather

Kharkiv

72 and cloudy. Mostly sunny through the Sunday afternoon, then thunderstorms through Monday, more sun later in the week. Daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through Saturday, then thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Daily lows around 70, daily highs in the low 90s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

73 and sunny, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny into Monday morning, then partly cloudy through next Friday. Daily lows near 60, highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics 

President Trump fired back at Deputy Chairman Medvedev and Russian leadership with a Nuclear Deterrence flavored warning:

Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that. Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

President Putin responded to “these who are disappointed” with Russia (referencing President Trump’s comment that he was disappointed in Putin):

"As for any disappointment felt by anyone, all disappointment stems from excessive expectations. That’s a well-known general rule.”

“…Ending Russia’s aggression against Ukraine requires serious discussions – not in public, but calmly, in the quiet of the negotiation process.”

Meanwhile, ships of the Chinese navy are in Vladivostok for a 5 day exercise (01-05 August) with the Russian navy.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the perimeter of most of the Russian occupied terrain north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes and a smattering of contradictory reports from pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian bloggers.

  North of Kharkiv fighting was again reported in the vicinity of Vovchansk but there were no confirmed changes in the front line, nor were there any changes noted further east along the border.

Of note, some analysts are now reflecting that the small village of Dehtiarne - the tiny “peninsula” of Ukrainian territory that sticks into Russia, about 60 miles north-east of Kharkiv, is, as reported as unconfirmed last week, in fact under Russian control.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along essentially all of the line of contact. Just west of Kupyansk, Ukrainian bloggers are now showing that the town Myrne (also referred at Moskovka), that abuts the western edge of Kupyansk, is “no man’s land,” rather than under Ukrainian control, and Russian forces were reported as active in Myrne and north of Kupyansk.

Further south, Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to exchange pieces of terrain; imagery confirmed that in the last two days Russian forces made further gains pushing their lines further south in the Zelena Dolyna area, and imagery showed Russian troops had control of southern Torske (a long, thin town of 1600 before the war) confirming claims from last week that they had taken the town. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces pushed further east in the Serebrianske forest, east of Yampil.

Unconfirmed reports also suggest Russian gains north and west of Karpivka.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut, particularly in the area east and north-east of Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Though not 100% confirmed, it does appear that Russian claims earlier this week are correct and that Russian forces have control of Chasiv Yar, though Ukrainian elements appear to remain dug-in on the western edge of the town. (Please see my thoughts below.)

West of Toretsk, imagery showed that Russian forces have control over Oleksandro Kalynove, which sits just east of Yablunivka.  The H-20 roadway runs north-south, just on the east side of the town and there is a small dirt road that roughly parallels the roadway, several hundred yards or less, further east. Beyond that is the Bychok River and the Kleban Byk reservoir. Said differently, this ends the possibility of troop withdrawal from this pocket by a route west of the reservoir. At the eastern end of the reservoir Russian troops have reached the O-0522 roadway and beyond that is perhaps 2,000 feet of open terrain, mostly marshland, and then the reservoir. Ukrainian forces will try to hold on but resupply will be difficult and withdrawal, perhaps by small boat across the reservoir, will be difficult as well.

Imagery confirmed Russian recon teams in Pokrovsk, but they are simply entering and leaving, and perhaps trying to conduct some sabotage; Russian units do not yet hold any terrain in Pokrovsk.

Fighting was reported in the immediate area of Pokrovsk, north and north-east of Pokrovsk, and west and south-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed gains. Nor were there any changes noted in the area immediately north of the Vovcha River. What is clear is that there is a great deal of fighting taking place.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces had pushed back into both Maliivka and Temyrivka, while unconfirmed reports suggest Russian gains near Oleksandrohrad (2 miles north of Maliivka).

Further west (along the Dnepr) fighting continues just north of Plavni.

Air Operations

During the night of July 31st - August 1st Russian forces launched 72 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW 44 drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts. There is a partial blackout in Sumy Oblast as a result of a drone strike.

RuAF tacair struck 6 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of July 30th - 31st Russian forces launched 8 x Iskander K cruise missiles and 309 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed 288 drones were shot down or defeated by EW; 3 cruise missiles were also shot down. Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kkharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 2 Ukrainian towns.

31 killed and 159 wounded in Kyiv as a result of Thursday’s drone strikes; also, 1 killed and 11 wounded in Kramatorsk.

Russian weapon usage, July totals, as reported by President Zelenskyy’s office: 

5,100 guided aerial bombs

3,800 Shahed drones

128 ballistic missiles

132 cruise missiles

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Jul31 Aug1

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 72.83 71.22

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 69.66 68.84

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 3.04 3.07

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.23 5.18

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 79.90 80.24

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.67 41.81

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 68.64 68.86

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 75.34 74.63

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 69.16 67.26

Thoughts

I’ll begin with a “Tip of the Hat” to President Trump for - appropriately - bringing a vague (also appropriate) but threatening nuclear posture into the discussions between the US and Russia by referencing the movement of “nuclear submarines."

Imagery has not definitively confirmed the Kremlin’s report that all of Chasiv Yar has fallen, but images have emerged of Russian flags rising in western and southern Chasiv Yar, and it would seem that the Russians do now control the town, or the ruins. Ukrainian elements remain dug into hardened positions on the west edge of the town and Russian artillery and drones will continue to pick at them. 

Much is being made in some circles of the time Russian forces took to take the town (almost 3 years fighting over Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar), and the claimed (Ukrainian General Staff et al) number of Russian casualties (a claimed 4,800 KIA in Chasiv Yar itself since April 2024 - all government figures, Ukrainian and Russian, should be taken with a grain of salt), but these arguments also miss the point that the Russians are trying to inflict casualties, and only secondarily gain ground.

There is also the assessment that this is not an operationally significant development. But, given the Russian tactic, there are no glaring, significant operational developments; this is a grind. The Russian offensive is like watching molasses flow on a cold day: it will choose the easy path forward, but very slowly. 

From here Russian forces will consolidate and straighten the front line a bit, and probably wait for forces around Toretsk to take control of the pocket east of Kostiantinivka, while also seeing if there are any developments around Siversk and north-west of Chasiv Yar. Expect Kostiantinivka to come under a more regular artillery, drone and air attack, and for Russian ground forces to continue to probe towards these cities looking for targets (Ukrainian troop concentrations) of opportunity.

v/r pete