August 11th, 2025  

Politics  - Trump - Putin to meet on 15th in Alaska

- Zelenskyy will not attend

Combat Ops - Russian closing pocket west of Toretsk

- Russian probes at multiple points along the front line

Weather

Kharkiv

72 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy to sunny all week. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

79 and sunny, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

71 and partly cloudy, gusting over 40. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows in the mid 50s, highs in the upper 70s. Winds from north-west today 20-25, rest of week, north-westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

President Trump will meet with President Putin in Alaska on August 15th.

There were unconfirmed reports that Trump was actively working to bring President Zelenskyy to Alaska, but this afternoon he said Zelenskyy will not be in Alaska.

The precise location of the meeting has not been released yet.

Vice President Vance commented yesterday that the US will no longer directly fund Ukraine but that European countries will buy from US contractors the weapons Ukraine needs. 

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy, and there are claims of Ukrainian gains north-east of Sumy City, along the border, but these have not been confirmed.

North of Kharkiv there are more claims of Russian gains in Vovchansk, but these have not been confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There continue to be reports of Russian elements inside Kupyansk but these have not been confirmed. Russian forces are, however, in Myron (Moskovka) and, at least in parts of Sobolivka (the two towns just west of Kupyansk). But the extent to which Russian forces control those two towns has not been established. Fighting also continues further north as Russian forces push west and north-west from the general area of the Oskil river.

Further south there have been no confirmed changes in the last several days east of Borova.

However, further south, Russian forces appear to be pushing further south along the east bank of the Nitrius River; imagery confirms Russian forces have pushed through Serednie and have pushed into the north side of Shandryholove (the next town south, on the banks of the Nitrius River).

Unconfirmed reports suggest an additional Russian brigade being moved into the Serebrianske forest and Russian bloggers are suggesting that in the next week Russians forces will begin a push to take control of the entire forest.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

From the Siversk area, past Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk, and around Pokrovsk, there are multiple reports of Russian gains but they have not been confirmed. Russian sources claim that west of Toretsk, they have full control of Yablunivka, and that between Toretsk and the Kleban Byk Reservoir, the Ukrainian forces have been reduced to just several separate platoons, and that these have been trying to withdraw across the reservoir but that drone strikes against small boats has prevented evacuation.

A bit further west there are reports of Russian probes north from the Boikivka area (about 9 miles north-east of Pokrovsk), through Nove Shakhove, towards Zolotyi Kolodyaz. Russian sources claim Nove Shakhove is already in Russian hands and the recon elements have penetrated Zolotyi Kolodyaz, which would be surprising if it is true. Zolotyi Kolodyaz is more than 15 miles due west of Kostianitnivka; a Russian movement that deep, that quickly seems unlikely.

However, in the last 2 - 3 months there have been at least a half-dozen times when small Russian elements (squad sized or smaller - fewer than 10 troops) have managed to penetrate 5 miles and more beyond the front lines without encountering Ukrainian units, which continues to suggest manpower shortages and gaps in the lines. Further east, a Russian recon team operating out of Chasiv Yar reportedly penetrated the north-east edge of Kostianitivka on the 10th. This, too, remains unconfirmed.

Fighting is also reported around the Krasni Lyman coal mine, just south-east of Rodinskye.

South-west of Pokrovsk Russian forces have pushed up to the edge of the oblast (the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border) and in most cases do not appear to have gone further. And there has been no change in the line here during the last two days. Fighting continues just south of the town of Fiiliya. Fighting also continues just north of Dachne

Stopping right on the border of the blast is not as odd as it seems; the “lines on the map” have all been, for the most part, planted with trees that have grown into these dense tree-lines that demarcate farmer’s fields. And as has been the case since this war began (and before that) no one takes a position in the middle of a field, you “hop” from one tree line to another.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Russian forces continue to probe and attack to the west and there are multiple Russian blogger reports of progress but this has not been confirmed in imagery. Fighting was also reported at multiple positions across the south, but again there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. Russian reports also claim Russian gains into Stepnohirsk but, while the Russians clearly control pieces of the southern edge of the town, how much of the rest of the town they control is not clear. Other reporting (also unconfirmed) notes an additional Russian brigade is being moved to Plavni.

Russian forces were active again on the Dnepr River, assaulting Karantynnyi Island (about 2 miles down river from Kherson proper) as well as striking near the Antonovsky bridge (just a few mile sup river from Kherson proper).

Air Operations

During the night of August 10th-August 11th Russian forces launched 71 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 59 Shahed drones and 3 jet powered drones. 

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 7 Ukrainian towns.

During the morning of the 11th Ukrainian forces claimed that Ukrainian drones struck the Arzamas production factory in Nizhny Novgorod, a facility that makes gyroscopes and aircraft control systems for several Russian cruise missiles.

There is no confirmation on actual damage to the facility.

Russian Air Defense forces claimed they shot down 354 Ukrainian drones during the night 10-11 August, and noted that a handful got through defenses in three areas: Komi, Nizhny Novgorod, and Tula. Note that imagery confirmed that the strike on Komi took place on the 10th.

During the night of August 9th-August 10th Russian forces launched 100 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 70 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. 

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike during the night of 9-10 August into Komi Republic, hitting the Saratov Oil Refinery (about 600 miles north-east of Moscow). Imagery on the 10th showed damaged to a storage tank.

During the night of August 8th-August 9th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander cruise missiles and 47 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 16 Shahed drones and 1 cruise missile.  

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

Ukrainian forces launched drones into Tatarstan oblast (400 miles east of Moscow) during the night of the 8th-9th, claiming that they struck Russian industrial facilities; a fire was reported at a warehouse.

During the night of August 7th-August 8th Russian forces launched 108 x Shahed drones and 8 x jet-powered drones (probably Geran 3 drones) into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 79 Shahed drones and 3 jet powered drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 5 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug11

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 66.59

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 63.89

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.98

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.15

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 79.87

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.39

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 62.56

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.79

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.57

Thoughts

Obviously, the big event this week is the summit in Alaska. Speculation is running across the full spectrum, from Putin is going to embarrass Trump and simply demand concessions, to a deal has already been worked out and this is to make the big splash. My guess is that only Putin knows what Putin will do. Trump is ready to help Ukraine make a deal, but it seems unlikely that Putin will accept giving up any terrain that he currently holds in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson or Zaporizhia for any concessions.

But, there are many things we simply do not know: the real state of the Russian economy (or the Ukrainian), the real manpower bill Russia has paid (and Ukraine), the real conditions inside the bunkers on the front lines, etc. It is likely that neither Putin nor Zelenskyy really understand the conditions in the bunkers - they just think they do.

So, a lot of things are possible, but if you were to ask for a line in Vegas on one outcome or another, I would only answer as the White Knight might to Alice: something of note will happen, or it won’t.

Meanwhile, Russian forces are pressing ahead, and there are multiple points along the line where it seems Ukrainian resistance is starting to fade. Whether in fact it is, and whether in fact Putin and his General Staff, and whether in fact Zelenskyy and his General Staff see it that way, is also unknown.

But, I will add, having stared at this problem for a minimum of several hours per day since about 2 months before the war started, the tactical situation seems more fluid today than it has in more than a year…

v/r pete