August 26th, 2025

Politics  - More aid from Germany and Canada

- Poland ends aid to refugees - Starlink at risk?

Combat Ops - Ukrainian gains north of Pokrovsk, but slowing

- Russian gains in the south

Weather

Kharkiv

58 and rain showers, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy through Thursday morning, then sunny through the weekend. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the 70s, 80s by the weekend.. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

71 and sunny. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

57 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tonight, partly cloudy through Friday morning, sunny weather through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 50s for the next few days, then lows near 60. Daily highs in the 60s through Wednesday, end of week warmer, highs in the 80s by the weekend. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

German Finance Minister Klingbeil announced yesterday that Germany will 9 million Euros ($10.5 billion) per year to Ukraine in 2026 and 2027 for production of weaponry. 

It is worth noting that Chancellor Merz commented on Saturday that his country can no longer afford their welfare state. Germany’s real GDP since 2014 is up just 17% total, decreased in 2024 and has decreased so far in 2025. 

Canada announced they will provide $500 million to Ukraine to finance weapons production. 

President Zelenskyy commented yesterday that Ukraine intends to raise $1 billion per month for weapons procurement.

Poland’s President Nawrocki vetoed a bill that would have extended financial support to Ukrainian refugees in Poland.

Polish Deputy PM Gawkowski said this veto will end Polish payments for Starlink:

“This is the end of the Starlink Internet, which Poland provides to Ukraine, which is waging war. This is also the end of support for storing Ukrainian administration data in a safe place.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains north-west of Sumy city, just east of Tetkino, in the area of the small Ukrainian village of Bezsalivka. It seems that Ukrainian forces are currently in control of the village. North of Sumy Ukrainian forces appear to have gained ground north of Andriivka as Russian forces gained ground a few miles to the west of Kostiantinivka - just west of Andriivka.

It appears that multiple Russian units in the fighting north of Sumy are in the process of rotating out and the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) is exploiting that activity to try to take back some terrain.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and there are reports of Russian gains north-east of Kharkiv, both east and west of Vovchansk, but there is no information to confirm these claims. 

Further east, along the border, Russian sources claimed Russian forces made gains pushing west and south-west from Milove, but this has not been confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues around Kupyansk, as well as both north and north-east of the town, and imagery confirms that Russian elements have penetrated into northern Kupyansk. Other reporting suggests Russian forces also continue to push slowly into Sobolivka.

Well to the south, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces have retaken part or all of Novyi Myr (about 15 miles south-east of Borova), and Novomykhailivka (about  1.5 miles south-east of Novomykhailiivka). Both are small farming villages, Novyi Mir has perhaps 40 houses, Novomykhailivak perhaps a half-dozen.

Further to the south-east, near the southern end of the Zherebets River, Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have taken control of Torske, as Russian sours claimed several weeks ago. Torske was a town of almost 1700 before the war but has now been swept over several times by both armies.

Control of Torske and the terrain immediately surrounding will strengthen the Russian position in the Serebrianske forest to the south and south-east.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north of Bakhmut, and west and south-west of Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines in this area.

North of Toretsk Russian forces made small gains, pushing north and west from Bila Hora, and imagery confirms Russain control over part of Oleksandro Shultyne. Just west of Toretsk, Russian forces appear to have pushed further into Katerynivka and it would seem that resupplying any forces east of the Kleban Byk reservoir will need to be by boat across the reservoir.

Ukrainian forces in and around and north of Pokrovsk continue to push back on the recent Russian salient and incursions. 

Ukrainian sources are reporting that they have cleared southern Pokrovsk of any Russian recon elements, and imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces control the south side of the town. It should be noted that Ukrainian sources have been claiming that the Russian probes were eliminated almost immediately after they took place; that it took this long to confirm it suggests that they may have had some difficulty actually eliminating the Russian aliments aside Pokrovsk. 

North of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces continue to pinch off the salient as well as push east from Novo Shakhove - into the salient, and from east of Mykholaivka (8 miles east-north-east of Pokrovsk). Overall, the Ukrainian gains - confirmed as well as claimed - are credible given the size of the original Russian force (less than a full battalion in size for the entire salient), and the slow pace of Russian logistics support. 

Elsewhere, there are a series of conflicting reports of gains, each side claiming and counterclaiming, but there are no confirmed changes in the front line.

The two towns to not are Udachne, about 9 miles west of Piokrovsk, and Filiia, just north of the Vovcha River, west of Dachne. In both cases, Russian sources claim that Russian forces have taken control of the towns, and Ukrainian sources deny it. In each case, taking these small towns would give local tactical advantages to the Russians.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River imagery confirms that Russian forces gained ground pressing west from the Mallivka area have taken the small town of Vorone, and from just north of Ternyriivka have pushed into Zaporizke. Both of these are small villages (perhaps 15 and 30 houses respectively) but Vorone is of note as it is north of the last east - west defensive line and there are no Ukrainian defenses between Vorone and the Dnepr River, except what might have been built in the last 4 weeks.

North of Kamyanske, along the east bank of the Dnepr River, Russian forces have pushed north out of the Plavni area and proceeded north along the Prydniprovska Railroad west of Stepnohirsk, and have advanced at least a short distance into southern Prymorske.

Air Operations

During the night of August 25th-August 26th Russian forces launched 59 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 47 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 9 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of August 24th-August 25th Russian forces launched 104 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 76 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 6 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug25 Aug26

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 68.59 67.33

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 64.62 63.31

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.71 2.67

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.11 5.32

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 80.71 80.47

Hryvnia 28..6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.46 41.36

Urals 91.66 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 63.10 64.22

ESPO 94.52 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 69.93 71.00

Sokol 99.31 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 64.80 65.22

Thoughts

Two issues of note: Ukrainian forces continue to chip away at the salient north of Pokrovsk, but Russians reinforcements seem to have begun arriving in greater numbers and the Ukrainian counter-attack is slowing. 

At the same time, the Russian gains in southern Ukraine may be of note. If the Russians have enough forces in the south to keep pushing forward, the lack of defensive lines and the demand for more Ukrainian assets elsewhere may combine to present a real problem for the Ukrainian General Staff.

Meanwhile, the situation with Poland (which has been paying for Starlink for Ukraine) is of note. There are 1 million Ukrainian refugees in Poland receiving aid from the government, even as the Polish government has paid for Starlink support. The government has commented that it intends to amend Polish law and that they are not simply abandoning the Ukrainian refugees, but Nawrocki was elected on promises to amend the law.

v/r pete