August 14th, 2025  

Politics  - Summit starts at 1530 EDT on the 15th

- Russian compare it to Yalta

Combat Ops - Russian salient remains, Ukrainian HQ claims it is stable

Weather

Kharkiv

76 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy to sunny for the next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs near 80. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny for the next week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

73 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through Saturday, then several days partly cloudy. Daily lows in the mid 50s, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Trump ahead of Putin meeting:

 “If it’s a bad meeting, I’m not calling anybody. I’m going home. But if it’s a good meeting, I’m going to call President Zelenskyy and the European leaders.”

The meeting is scheduled to begin at 1130 local (1530 EDT, 2230 Kyiv)

Lead Russian negotiator Dmitriev commented that “Yalta [the Three Powers Yalta conference, February 4-11, 1945] won World War II, and Putin and Trump will prevent World War III.” 

Several other Russian politicians also referenced Yalta in comments yesterday, which at least suggests they are attaching some degree of importance to the meeting. Yalta as you will recall, was later fingered as the point when FDR gifted Eastern Europe to the USSR.

During the ZAPAD 2025 Exercise with Belarus, Russia will conduct drills with the Oreshnik IRBM.

The Czech led effort to provide artillery ammo to Ukraine will, per PM Fiala, provide Ukraine with 500,000 x 155MM howitzer shells, and another 1 million artillery shells of smaller caliber.

Ground Ops

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting was reported again in the Tetkino area north-west of Sumy city, and imagery confirmed Russian forces pushed back into the middle of Yunakivka (north-east of Sumy city). On the opposite end of the Russian occupied terrain, Ukrainian forces appear to control all of Kindrativka.

North of Kharkiv, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces have pushed back into central Vovchansk and regained control of the aggregate plant (or the running of the aggregate plant). Russian and Ukrainian forces have been fighting over Vovchansk since May 2024, and have regularly traded terrain, see-saw fashion. While the Russians claim they want buffer zones, this incursion has tied up a half doze or more Ukrainian brigades for 15 months, and caused a small but steady stream of casualties, while leaving the town of Vovchansk in ruins; attrition warfare.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes in the Kupyansk area or further south until south of Borova.

Fighting continues along the perimeter of the Russian salient north of Lyman, and Ukraine forces had confirmed gains in the Rydkodub area. At the same time there were unconfirmed but credible reports of Russian gains along the Nitrius River, pushing south towards Shandryholove, and consolidating Serednie. Russian gains were also claimed (but unconfirmed) in Kolodiazi.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut, and west of and south of Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

Further south, there are reports from the Russian MOD that Russian forces have full control over Shcherbynivka even as there is imagery showing Ukrainian forces - an element of unknown size - in control of a spot in the city.

It is doubtful, given the geography and the confirmed areas of Russian control around Shcherbynivka, that a large element could remain in the town. But it is certainly possible for a small unit to be there, and be photographed there. We’ll see if they remain for long or withdraw.

Further west, moving toward the new salient, Russian forces were confirmed to be north of Poltavka, and Poltavka and Rusyn Yar appear to be firmly in Russian control, and Russian forces are pressing on Stepanivka, just on the north side of the T0504 roadway.

As for the salient and all the small towns around Pokrovsk, to the north and north-east and west, Russian elements remain in these towns but there has been virtually no change in the current  situation and control at least right now is in Russian hands. Russian assaults were reported in or near 30 towns in the general area, and there were no reported Ukrainian gains in or near any of those towns. This is so even as the Ukrainian brigade commander inside Pokrovsk reports that these attacks are just 1 to 3 Russian solders at a time.

The governor of Donetsk (the Ukrainian governor), Vadym Filashkin stated that the situation around Dobropillia and the Russian salient, has stabilized. 

"The situation on the Dobropillia axis has stabilized. Thanks to the heroic efforts of our Defense Forces, the front line is holding firmly. Thank you to everyone who, at this difficult moment, completed the task in the most difficult section and showed an example of resilience and professionalism.”

And a spokesman for there Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) commented that:

"In particular, during the actions of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine "Azov", adjacent and subordinate units, the enemy suffers significant losses.”

Per his report, the Russians in the salient have suffered 151 KIAs and 70 WIAs in the past 2 days.

1st Azov Corps is now on line along the Dobropilla - Kramatorsk road, and reports the it is inflicting heavy losses on the Russians.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues on the north - south line, south of the Vovcha river, with multiple Russian claims of gains, but there have been no confirmed gains in this area.

Fighting also continues across the south, including just east of Huliaipole and just south-east of Orikhiv, but again there were no confirmed gains.

North of Kupyanske, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed into Stepnohirsk, Russian artillery and FPV drone strikes continue to at higher than average rates across the south.

Air Operations

During the night of August 13th-August 14th Russian forces launched 2 x S-300 ballistic missiles and 45 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 24 Shahed drones.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 10 Ukrainian towns.

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd (about 200 miles east of Ukraine, 450 miles south-east of Moscow). There are no reports on the extent of damage.

The UGS reported that Ukrainian drones struck an oil pumping station in Vysokoe, Bryansk Oblast (about 50 miles north of the northern border of Ukraine. 

During the night of August 12th-August 13th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 49 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 32 Shahed drones and both ballistic missiles.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 8 Ukrainian towns.

MGEN Skibitskyi, Ukrainian GUR deputy commander, reported that Russia will mane 79,000 Shahed type drones this year, made up of 40,000 Geran-2 (the Russian designation of the Russian manufactured basic Shahed drone, 34,000 Gerbera drones (the Russian manufactured drones with a plastic fuselage resting in a different radar signature - to generate confusion, used for either SIGINT or as a decoy, or as a suicide drone , and 5,700 Garpiya A-1 drones (a Russian manufactured Shahed using Chinese parts).

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug13 Aug14

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 66.00 66.47

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 62.98 63.48

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.84 2.82

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.04 5.04

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 79.49 79.62

Hryvnia 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.39 41.44

Urals 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 62.52 61.62

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.36 67.83

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.30 62.44

Thoughts

On Tuesday President Zelenskyy reported that Russia “may” transfer from the Sumy area (presumably he means Sumy - Kursk - Belgorod area) some 27,000 troops in the near term, with 15,000 to Zaproizhzhia, 7,000 to Pokrovsk, and 5,000 to Novopavlivka (south-west of Pokrovsk). 

Meanwhile, various Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to describe the recent thrusts north of Pokrovsk as recon (reconnaissance and sabotage) units, groups as small as 2 men each, rarely larger than 8 men.

This may be true, but it begs the question why is this taking so long to sweep up? Several sources note that the Russians have neither reinforced nor consolidated most of their positions along this salient. 

The front is stabile - makes sense if this is just a series of recon teams. And if 151 recon guys were killed, and 70 wounded, how many would remain? This begs the question of how the UGS has such accurate figures (as you will recall, they had virtually no Russian dead to turn over when it came time to do so last month.

Multiple times during the war Russian units have found themselves well ahead of the front line, but invariably, several conditions apply: they were a single element - there were not multiple recon units operating in parallel on the same front; they had found a seam between two Ukrainian units - which is not the case here; and they withdrew after no more than 36 hour forward, usually the event, from start to finish, lasted less than a day.

In some cases Recon units were detected and Ukrainian forces responded with overwhelming numbers and the Russian recon units were eliminated or captured. Some fought and took several days to be taken, or to escape.

But what we have here is multiple probes - at one point I thought I could identify 15 - but don't hold that number, because it all became quite “fuzzy” quickly and reports were often contradictory; there may have been fewer, or many more. And several of the “probes” were at least a company in size (120 or more), and were able to leave a platoon or more to hold a given position.

Still, even if it were just a few companies, these units are moving 10 or more miles into Ukrainian controlled terrain, without supporting units. If this had been a different war, all well and good. But just two weeks ago the dialogue along the entire front centered on small teams - 3-4 soldiers, moving very fast - on motorcycles, until they got into the area of the front line, and then driving at high speed into the trees and sneaking forward while maintaining cover, normally seeking to press forward 200 - 300 meters. What happened that a dozen or more units, some presumably larger than 100 men, were able to “sneak” forward 10 - 15 miles through occupied terrain, and then move into small towns that had no Ukrainian army presence and take control? The only thing that comes to mind is that there simply are not enough Ukrainian troops in the area, and that the Ukrainian units supposedly manning the lines as of 2 weeks ago were, and are, hollow units.

Which leaves us with the simple question: will the Ukrainian units now flowing into this area have the ability to sweep up the Russians and close the line up again? And will they leave a similar “hollow” space somewhere else in the Ukrainian line?

v/r pete