August 5th 2025  

Politics  - Kremlin responds to Trump 

- Trump and Zelenskyy talk

Combat Ops - Russian probes into Kupyansk

- Fighting increasing around Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

86 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend except Thursday, which will see thunderstorms. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

88 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny through the week, except cloudy all day Thursday, and Friday morning. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

80 and sunny, gusting over 25. Thunderstorms tomorrow, sunny on Thursday, then partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows near 60, highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

President Trump and President. Zelenskyy talked on the phone, late morning EDT - no details yet.

President Trumps’ comment about “moving nuclear subs closer” apparently struck a nerve. Kremlin spokesman Peskov noted that Trumps’s response was “premature,” and “very emotional” and that Russia takes more “responsible position.” Other senior Russian figures echoed these sentiments.

Peskov then noted that Medvedev does not drive Russian Foreign policy, President Putin does, and that other Russians have different opinions but they don’t matter, only Putin matters. 

Medvedev of course, is Putin’s rabid dog and stoked the the nuclear question in the first place - to a certainty under Putin’s direction - when he referenced the Russian “Perimeter” system, a system designed to initiate a nuclear response with little or no leadership input, a so called “dead hand” launch.

Trump then pushed back and the Kremlin appears to have recoiled just a tiny bit…

Ambassador Witkoff will return to Moscow to resume talks with the Russian government.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city, and though unconfirmed, it appears that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back in the area of Kindrativka (on the west end of the would-be buffer) and just north of Varachyne (in the rough center of the buffer).

North of Kharkiv fighting continues around Vovchansk but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces were active along virtually the entire line of contact north of the Donets River, but the only confirmed advances, and the key development, is that Russian forces pushed southward along the P-79 roadway, have moved into Myrne (Moskovka) and are now conducting probes into Kupyansk itself, poking into the north-west and north-east edges of the town; one Russian element, of unknown size, appears to be pushing into northern Kupyansk, using the Oskil River as its left flank. One pro-Ukrainian site suggests that Russian forces have already taken a cluster of apartment buildings about a half mile inside the north-west corner of the town (pressing at least as far south-east as Yuvileyna street).

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed that Russian forces were making incremental gains east of Siversk, and appear to be straightening their lines; the Russian front line now runs roughly north - south, about 2 miles east of Siversk.

Around Chasiv Yar Russian forces are attempting to consolidate their positions, and push out the Ukrainian troops dug in north and just south of Chasiv Yar, and along the western edge of the town.

West of Toretsk Russian sources claim that they now control the entire Kleban Byk reservoir and all land east and south of the reservoir, that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn in the face of Russian pressure. Meanwhile, imagery confirms Russian gains near Rusyn Yar and Poltavka - west of the H-32 roadway.

   Around Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed that Russian forces had gained ground north-east and south-east of Pokrovsk, and continue to attack on a wide front. Russian recon elements have been noted pushing into Myrnohrad. Due north of Pokrovsk Russian forces have pushed into Rodynske and Krasnyi Lyman, and a Ukrainian forces spokesman noted an increase in Russian forces in the immediate area. Of note, the Krasnolymanska coal mine, on the east edge of Krasnyi Lyman, with 3.5 million tons of coal annual production, appears to now be on the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along most of front line, an increase over the past week, and Russian forces appear to have moved back into Maliivka; they took it early last week, Ukrainian forces pushed back into it last Thursday, now the Russians appear to have retaken it over the weekend. Russian forces then pressed west and northwest from that town into open terrain and towards Sichneve. 

The Russian MOD claims that the small town of Sichneve (less than 100 homes), a bit more than a mile-and-a-half north-west of Maliivka, is now in Russian hands; this has not been confirmed but there are several reports from independent newspapers that support the Russian claim.

Further west, Russian forces still hold Kamyansk and Plavni, despite Ukrainian counter attacks and heavy fighting is reported on the south edge of Stepnohirsk.

  Russian attacks on islands in the lower Dnepr has reportedly increased in the last month, but there is little specific data. In all likelihood, this activity consists of recon probes and support to artillery and drone fire into Kherson.

Air Operations

During the night of August 4th-August 5th Russian forces launched 47 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 29 drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Kharkiv and Kherson oblast.

RuAF tacair struck 7 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of August 3rd-August 4th Russian forces launched 1 x Kinzhal ballistic missile and 162 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down the Kinzhakl missile and shot down or defeated by EW 161 drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Kyiv and Kharkiv oblast.

During the night of August 2nd-August 3rd Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander M ballistic missile, 5 x S-300 ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-22 cruise missile, and 76 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down the Iskander ballistic missile, and 60 drones were shot down or defeated by EW.

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Mykolaiv city.

During the night of August 1st-August 2nd Russian forces launched 45 x Shahed drones and 8 x high speed drones (probably Geran 3, jet powered drones) into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW 37 Shaheds and all 8 Geran drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Donetsk and oblasts.

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on the Rosneft Ryazan Oil Refinery in Ryazan City, the Annanefte product oil depot in Anna, Voronezh Oblast, and Elektropribor plant in Penza City during the night of August 1st, leaving all three burning. 

During the night of July 31st - August 1st Russian forces launched 72 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW 44 drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Sumy oblasts. There is a partial blackout in Sumy Oblast as a result of a drone strike.

RuAF tacair struck 6 Ukrainian towns.

DOD announced the sale of AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range Air to Air Missiles) missiles to Ukraine, a $3.5 billion contract that includes missiles, telemetry support equipment, maintenance gear, training, etc. Depending on variant and the target, AMRAAMs have maximum ranges of 50 to 85 miles. Per unit cost is about $400,000 but there are a host of variables so a hard number sold isn't really possible to know form this data. But, it will certainly exceed several thousand.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Aug1 Aug5

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 71.22 68.07

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 68.84 65.50

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 3.07 2.99

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.14

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 80.24 80.09

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.81 41.62

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 68.86 65.17

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 74.63 70.86

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 67.26 64.67

Thoughts

Russian forces moved back into Maliivka. This is consistent with the Russian attrition - grind way of war; they are not a nimble force and Ukrainian forces can move more quickly and exploit a gap in the line or a seam between two units. But the Russian forces still keep pressing forward - sort of like molasses in winter - and seem to retake terrain as they fill in would-be salients and straighten their lines.

That said, Russian forces now appear to have three separate, significant pushes taking place: Kupyansk, Siversk, and north-east of Pokrovsk, and additional forces appear to have flowed into these fights. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to press forward nearly everywhere, but particularly west and north-west of Toretsk, while also sustaining pressure on Kamyansk (on the Dnepr) and north of Sumy.

Ukrainian forces are trying to hold in all areas, with no quarter possible in several areas - particularly north of Sumy, and north of Kamyansk, where any losses of ground to Russian forces would leave two major cities (Sumy and Zaporizhzhia) in range of Russian artillery. 

All of which again suggests that Ukrainian manpower is the key element of the battle. 

Meanwhile, (per the Ukrainian General Staff) Russia is in the process of adding 9 new divisions to the army (it started the war with only 12 fully formed divisions and more than 20 separate  brigades and regiments. Given all the associated support forces, this is a substantial increase in the size of the army, perhaps growing by as much as a third, which would explain a good deal of Russia’s need for 40,000 new troops per month.

v/r pete