August 6th 2025  

Politics  - Trump, Zelenskyy talk

- Witkoff meets with Putin

- Russia withdraws form INF Treaty

Combat Ops - Russian gains east of Siversk

- Small Russian gains elsewhere

Weather

Kharkiv

85 and sunny. Thunderstorms tomorrow, then partly to mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs near 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

91 and sunny. Mostly cloudy tomorrow, then mostly sunny into next week. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds northerly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

65 and cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms but clearing by Thursday morning, partly cloudy Friday and through the weekend. Daily lows upper 50s to low 60s, highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics 

President Trump and President Zelenskyy spoke on the phone this afternoon.

Ambassador Witkoff is in Moscow for meetings with President Putin and others, initial meeting with Putin today lasted 3 hours.

Russia formally withdrew from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treat (INF) on the 4th. 

Russia announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

The INF Treat, signed in 1987, banned conventional ground-launched ballistic missiles and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5500 kilometers (310 - 3400 miles). The treaty did not apply to air or sea launched weapons.

The EU and NATO announced intentions to purchase 1 billion euros ($1.15 billion) in US weapons, to include Patriot missiles, other air defense weapons, ammunition and spare parts.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City; unconfirmed reports suggest Russian forces have pushed back into Yunakivka, retaking land they lost just a few days ago.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv city, particularly near Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. There are also unconfirmed reports of more fighting taking place in the vicinity of Dehtiarne (the north-east tip of Ukraine), but there are no details and, in fact, no confirmation.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along essentially the entire line of contact north of the Donets River; in the vicinity of Kupyansk there were no confirmed changes in the front line, but Russian forces appear to have made gains pushing south-west through Myrna (Moskovka) and some elements (probably recon elements) may have reached the northern edge of Sobolivka, the town immediately south-east of Kupyansk.

Further south Russian forces south-east of Borova gained some ground to the north-and north-west, pushing into the would-be salient north of Ridokub - a now standard Russian effort to push into salients, cut off small pockets, and eventually straighten and shorten lines.

South and south-east of Torske Russian forces also appear to have gained some ground in the Serebrianske forest, though the reports out of the forest are often contradictory, and gains seem to be regularly and frequently reversed. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSKJ - POKROVSK

  East of Siversk, Russian forces continue to push westward along the entire north-south line, and imagery confirmed Russian gains into the east edge of the Serebryanka, a town about 3 - 4 miles north-east of Siversk, on the south bank of the Donets River. Other reporting suggests Russian forces also gained ground at multiple spots along the from line but there is no confirmation of these reports. If accurate, these gains could develop into a significant gain for Russian forces in this area. 

The town had a population of about 1,100 at the start of the war, and was noted in a number of news reports in the summer of 2023 when Russian forces tried to attack through the town and 30 residents remained - refused to leave - well after Russian artillery rockets had begun to reduce the village to rubble.

Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian probes are now poking into the east edge of Siversk.

West of Bakhmut, south-east of Chasiv Yar, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces took back the woods east of Stupochky and have pushed in as far as the Donets Canal. That said, the reporting is confusing and this is probably a small element that will have difficulty holding the.terrain.

Immediately west of Toretsk Russian forces continue to try to clear the various towns and villages easts of the Kleban Byk Reservoir (between Toretsk and the reservoir) but anecdotal reports suggest there are many small Ukrainian elements that remain dug in, inside each of these villages. Nevertheless, Russian reports note that the roads that run immediately east of the reservoir are now controlled by Russian forces.

  Further west, Russian forces continue to expand their positions northward around Poltavka  and Rusyn Yar.

Fighting continues north, and east and west of Pokrovsk but there were no confirmed changes in the line of contact, despite multiple reports of Russian gains along most of the front line from Chasiv Yar, around Toretsk, and around Pokrovsk. Of note, Ukrainian reporting notes that Russian drones (fiber optically controlled drones) are interdicting the E50 roadway that runs north-west out of Pokrovsk.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continued across most of southern Ukraine but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Air Operations

During the night of August 5th-August 6th Russian forces launched 45 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 36 drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 4 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of August 4th-August 5th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander M ballistic missile and 46 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated by EW, 29 drones. 

Damage from missile, drone strikes and air strikes was reported in Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa and Sumy oblast; the Iskander ballistic missile struck Odessa.

RuAF tacair struck 7 Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian drones struck a railway station in Rostov (just east of the Sea of Azov) during the night of 4-5 August and caused a fire.

"Ukrainian Technary,”a Ukrainian company, has produced a reusable, jet powered “interceptor” drone that can intercept Shahed drones, flies at speeds of 165 kts, has a sensor that can “lock” on a Shahed at nearly a kilometer, and then automatically fires a projectile into the drone when it is within 150 meters of the target. 

Meanwhile, Russia has begun producing a jet-powered Shahed with a top speed of 270kts, and the Geran 3 drone (powered by Chinese engines) with a top speed of 430kts.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 May8 Jun9 July8 Aug5 Aug6

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      61.93 66.80 70.44 68.07 68.45

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      59.00 64.89 68.65 65.50 65.98

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.64 3.69 3.35 2.99 3.06

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.34 5.49 5.49 5.14 5.08

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    82.45 79.27 78.47 80.09 80.23

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.62 41.51

Urals 56.56    54.13 60.84 64.07 65.17 63.93

ESPO 48.90 63.97 71.58 70.86 69.84

Sokol 57.39 61.51 64.38 64.67 64.04

Thoughts

The withdrawal from the INF is not a meaningful change. 

About the INF… In July 2014 the United States announced that Russia had developed and tested a ground launched cruise missile with a range greater than 500KM, the 9M729 (NATO designation SSC-8), believed to be a land launched variant of the Kalibr naval cruise missile.

Russia insists the missile has a range of less than 500KM (hence treaty compliant), but the impartial assessments of the airframe suggest a 2350KM (1290 NM) range with a nuclear warhead, or 2000KM range (1100 NM)with a 500KG (1100lbs) conventional warhead.

Russia deployed the new weapon in 2017. Russia was in noncompliance then and has remained in non-compliance. This announcement is not much more than theater, though Russia is trying to portray it as the US forced them to act.

In any case, in 2018, 4 years after a clear, public violation of the treaty by Russia, President Trump announced the US would withdraw from the treaty and the US formally withdrew August 2nd, 2019.

But Russia has been in non-compliance since at least 2014.

v/r pete