March 12th, 2025

Politics and Diplomacy  - US and Ukraine agree on a ceasefire

- Rubio speaking to Russian government, will relay terms

- US restarts intelligence and material support to Ukraine

Ground Operations - Kursk salient collapsing 

- Slow grind elsewhere

Politics and Diplomacy

US and Ukrainian negotiators agreed to a 30 day ceasefire, contingent, of course, on Russia agreeing to the same ceasefire. As per the terms, the US will lift the freeze on intelligence sharing and on material support to Ukraine, and by the morning of the 12th there were photographs on “X” showing US material moving through Jasionka, Poland (the logistics hub) headed to Ukraine.

The ceasefire is just that: suspension of combat operations along the front line, as well as any missile and drone strikes, etc. President Zelenskyy commented:

"And today in the conversation there was a proposal from the American side to take the first step immediately further and try to establish a complete ceasefire for 30 days, not only regarding missiles, drones and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line. Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, we are ready to take such a step."

SecState Rubio is now int eh process of meeting with and discussing the ceasefire with the Kremlin.

The US - Ukraine rare earths development program is also now moving forward.

Joint Statement on the United States - Ukraine Meeting in Jeddah

(released by the Governments of the United States of America, and Ukraine.)

Today in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia - under the gracious hospitality of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

— the United States and Ukraine took important steps toward restoring durable peace for Ukraine. Representatives of both nations praised the bravery of the Ukrainian people in defense of their nation and agreed that now is the time to begin a process toward lasting peace. The Ukrainian delegation reiterated the Ukrainian people's strong gratitude to President Trump, the U.S. Congress, and the people of the United States for making possible meaningful progress toward peace. Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation. The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace. The United States will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine. The delegations also discussed the importance of humanitarian relief efforts as part of the peace process, particularly during the above-mentioned ceasefire, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. Both delegations agreed to name their negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace that provides for Ukraine's long-term security. The United States committed to discussing these specific proposals with representatives from Russia. The Ukrainian delegation reiterated that European partners shall be involved in the peace process. Lastly, both countries' presidents agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine's critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine's economy and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.

Ground Operations

On the ground, the most important development over the past week is that Russian forces were able to do two things to the the Ukrainian positions in the Kursk salient: make major inroads into Ukrainian positions inside Russia, while also flanking the bulk of the Ukrainian force with a small thrust into Ukraine itself from the west, and a thrust into the south-east edge of the salient, south of Sudzha. These efforts were facilitated by two factors: the use of Russian tacair to drop several bridges inside the Ukrainian controlled territory, thereby impacting Ukrainian movement (and logistics support) and the above-freezing weather that turned the fields into mud and reduced the ability of the Ukrainian army to operate off-road. The Ukrainian controlled area inside Russia has now been reduced to two small areas, one about 35 square miles in size (less than 7 miles north to south, almost 6 miles east to west), and the second, not quite 20 square miles in size (4 miles north to south, 5 miles east to west) separated from the northern area by a 1-mile wide strip now controlled by Russian forces.

The current Russian assault began on the 8th, reportedly with a Spetsnaz led element (Russian statement was 400 troops) moving 15 kilometers (9 miles) under ground through the now empty natural gas pipeline (1.4 meter - 55 inch), to emerge in the rear of Ukrainian forces inside northern Sudzha. Russian forces also managed to establish complete air control over the Kursk salient beginning on the 8th, and were then able to engage in substantial use of attack helicopters and SU-25s, as well as extensive use of glide bombs to drop bridges and strike hard targets. After that, there attack appears to have gone fairly smoothly for the Russians and the Ukrainians were not able to slow the Russians forces as they moved into the towns surrounding Sudzha.

Currently, southern-most of the two areas is tactically most threatened as there are no roads running into the area from Ukraine (supplies had come from a road a bit to the north that ran into Russia from Ukraine, and then supplies were moved to the south-east), and any Ukrainian withdrawal will be over muddy fields and across the border. The load-bearing capacity of the farmland is going to have a serious impact on any withdrawal. Given the use of drones and the preponderance of Russian artillery, this is likely to be difficult. 

President Zelenskyy commented earlier today that “The military command is doing what it should do, preserving the maximum of lives of our soldiers,” and urged that all concerned make a “sober assessment” of the situation.

Weather in north-eastern Ukraine has been in the low 40s at night (occasionally dipping into the 30s) with highs in the 50s and sometimes 60s during the day, with some sun, mostly clouds, and some rain. 

In the northern pocket, the larger of the two, Russian forces appear to have retaken all of Sudzha and Ukrainian forces now stand on the west side of that town. While there is some debate on whether Russian forces control Sudzha, one report from the Ukrainian General Staff seems to show that Russian forces were attacking Ukrainian forces west of the town. My guess is that the Russians have forced the Ukrainians out of Sudzha. Note, too that there is a single road (R200 roadway, that connects to Ukrainian roadway H07) but this road is under fire from Russian artillery and drones. If withdrawal takes place here they have some chance of success, particular if they take advantage of any cloud cover or nightfall, but it will still be difficult.

How many Ukrainian troops remain in the salient is not clear. There were at various times major elements of 6 to 10 Ukrainian brigades in the salient, but that was a constantly changing number. My guess is that as the salient started to collapse there were 4 - 6 Ukrainian brigades inside the salient, but whether there was a rapid reinforcement (or a rapid withdrawal) is not clear at all. Total Russian forces assigned to the salient was between 10 and 12 brigades or regiments, though at any given time it seemed that perhaps half that number were actually engaged in any sort of combat and the remainder were a strategic reserve or were rotating in or out. (Note: Russian brigades differ from Russian regiments based on their command and control capabilities, how they are used and the amount of combat support and combat service support elements attached. But the actual tactical capability on any given day is essentially the same. In the Russian military the regiment is an independent organization, the brigade is not.) Current manning of these brigades and regiments - is probably in the 2,000 - 2,500 soldiers per unit. Ukrainian manning is less clear. 

Several analysts (pro-Russian) suggest the Russian forces will retake the entire salient within the next several days, but as it is not clear what Ukrainian forces remain in the salient, I’m not sure they can make that claim.

Elsewhere, the grind continues and there have been some gains and losses by each side, but there have been no substantive changes to the front line in the last 7 days, outside the Kursk salient.

Thoughts

The obvious question is: What will Putin do? Will he accept the ceasefire?

It seems to me that he will want to finish the assault on the Kursk salient, retake the Russian terrain, and push at least briefly across the border into the Sumy Oblast. Reading between the lines of Zelenskyy’s statement this morning, it would seem they’re preparing the Ukrainian public for a withdrawal in the near term.

But beyond that, the focus on the ground remains the Donetsk region, specifically Pokrovsk and the surrounding area. I would think he - Putin - would want to have a discussion with his theater commander and figure out what is likely to be achieved in fighting over the next few weeks to 30 days. At the same time, what are the “carrots” (immediate return other G8 perhaps, an easing of certain sanctions with promise of more easing of the ceasefire holds?) and “sticks” (more effort to reduce oil prices, 3rd party sanctions, etc.) that the US negotiators are discussing with the Russian negotiators?

My guess, and it’s just a guess, is that Putin will delay long enough to get the Kursk salient cleaned out, then agree to a ceasefire.

v/r pete