March 25th, 2025 Next Summary 28 March (Friday)

Politics - Maritime and Energy Ceasefire?

- Russia offered market access for fertilizers and grain

Combat Ops - Few changes

Other - Russian Strategic Forces Exercise

Weather

Kharkiv

49 and cloudy. Rain showers Wednesday, then partly to mostly cloudy for the week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, below 5kts.

Melitopol

53 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

45 and cloudy, mostly cloudy rest of the week. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

The White House (followed by others) announced that there is an agreement on a maritime ceasefire and a general agreement on an energy infrastructure ceasefire.

Both sides agreed “agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.”

Both countries also agreed to develop protocols to end strikes against energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine.

The US also said it will work with Russia to let Russia resume global marketing of fertilizers, agricultural production, and the return to normal maritime activity - normal insurance rates, transfer of moneys, etc.

Ukrainian DefMin Umerov posted:

"Key results: 1. All parties agreed to ensure safe navigation, stop the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.” 

Umerov also noted Russian Navy ships will remain in the “eastern Black Sea, and that both presidents agreed to a ban on Energy Infrastructure.”

“Technical consultations” will now take place (not clear if there is a tentative schedule) to fill in the details of monitoring and control of the ceasefire.

Also discussed in the meeting on the 25th was the resumption of the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Russia withdrew from that initiative after it accused the West of failing to act on the terms of the agreement, and allowing Russian fertilizer access to world markets.

At today’s meeting, the US said that it would “restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.”

President Zelenskyy commented that the US position n Russian agricultural products, etc, weakens the sanctions regime against Russia, and that Ukraine does not agree to this.

"This issue was not on the agenda before the meeting. As far as we know, the Russians raised the issue of the US side's assistance to the Russians in transporting their agricultural products... We did not agree to have this in our common statement… this is "a weakening of positions and easing of sanctions.”

"Umierov contacted me. I stated that easing certain restrictions on Russian agricultural products is not the same as discussing an unconditional ceasefire or even a partial one – whether in the air or at sea.”

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT and BELGOROD BORDER

Russian forces continued to probe into and shell Ukrainian elements remaining along the border of what was the Kursk salient, but there was no change in the front line. Ukrainian General Staff and border guard forces report that Russian forces are increasing in the area.

Given that this is, indeed, a war of attrition, the Russian goal will be to either capture or wipe out the Ukrainian elements, not to push them back into Ukraine. Presumably, the Russians will mass enough forces to do just that.

North-west of Belgorod, Ukrainian forces continue to hold terrain around Demidovka and terrain between that town and the border, and have pushed northward to the next town on the border, Popovka, and are attacking that town. Ukrainian forces have been confirmed in the center of Demidovka, though there is some dispute as to whether they control the entire town.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Russian forces were active in the vicinity of Hlyboke and Vovchansk but there was no change to the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

Fighting continues along essentially the entire line of contact and there have been multiple claims of gains by both sides but there are no confirmed gains. Overall, Russian forces continue to try to expand their lodgment west of the Oskil River, north of Kupyansk, and appear to be slowly expanding that holding westward.

Further south, in the fighting north, north-east and east of Borova, the only change, noted several days ago, is the Ukrainian drive into Nadia, just east of Kopanky. The Russians have not yet counter-attacked into this small salient.

BAKHMUT

North-east of Bakhmut Russian forces were confirmed to have made gains east of Siversk, near the town of Verkhnokamyanske. The terrain south of Verkhnokamyanske is all open farmland, with one small river crossing it east to west, but otherwise with no obstructions.

West of Bakhmut, in Chasiv Yar, fighting continues in the center of town, fighting over the last two streets and several sprawling apartment complexes (like many in Ukraine, clusters of small, heavily built apartment buildings that are between 5 and 10 floors high). Fighting is also reported in Shevchenko, immediately west of Chasiv Yar.

Further South, Russian forces had more confirmed gains in northern Toretsk, and it appears that Russian forces have occupied all of Krymske. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains in southern Toretsk.

DONETSK CITY AREA

As has been the case for much of the past several weeks, both sides had confirmed gains in the Pokrovsk area. East of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces counter-attacked and made gains in the Vodyane Druhe area, reclaiming some of the land lost to Russian forces in the last several days.

At the same time, Russian forces had some confirmed gains southwest of Pokrovsk in Uspenivka. Russian forces attacked in 22 different towns and villages along the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient, but there were few reported gains.

South of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces continued trying to push west, particularly through Kostyantynopil (which is still not fully in Russian hands), and past Andriivka into Oleksiivka. Rozlyv, just south-west of Kostyantynopil, is also under attack and Russian forces are on the eastern edge of the town.

Further south, in the area north-west of Velyka Novosilke, Russian forces have pushed into Vilne Pole and continue to slowly broaden their front in the south-east “corner,” pushing roughly westward, down the small river that runs to the west-north-west This is of note as each move forward increases the stand-off distance, the buffer, for the Russian road and rail logistics lines, which connect Russia with Crimea

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces were active in the vicinity of Lobkove, Maly Shcherbaky, and Stepove (between Orikhiv and the Dnepr River) but here was no change to the front line.

Other

Russia has begun a strategic forces exercise in which YARS (RS-24 (NATO designates SS-27 and SS-29)) ICBMs will deploy to the forests of Western Siberia. These exercises normally involve the launch of 1 or more missiles. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Mar24 Mar25

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 72.39 72.86

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 68.52 68.86

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.95 3.84

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.51 5.42

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 84.15 84.56

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.67 41.62

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49 65.49

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 73.89 74.36

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 69.13 69.71

Thoughts 

The maritime ceasefire is a great starting point, and hopefully this will serve as some sort of crack in the system and lead to a more comprehensive ceasefire’s. That said, it will affect the war on the battlefield not at all. The Russian Navy has contributed as much to the successful prosecution of the war as has the Bolshoi ballet.

The UAF spokesman today commented on Russian drones strikes that they are meant to "destroy infrastructure, strike military targets, and terrorize the local Ukrainian population.” 

Certainly they are meant to destroy infrastructure if they survive, but the fact is that - if the UAF claims are correct, perhaps 90% of the drones are being defeated before they hit anything, and despite hundreds of drones being fired, there are relatively few civilian casualties. 

I’m not downplaying civilian casualties; they are sad and tragic. But, in the last 5 days (as an example) the Russians have launched something on the order of 700 drones into Ukrainian airspace, roughly 10% were not shot down or defeated, but there were fewer than 25 civilian wounded, and I’m not certain there were any killed.

Having been involved with the planning and execution of a number of strike campaigns, wherein we went to great pains to avoid civilian casualties, I would hazard a guess that the various US and coalition strikes, to scale, inflicted substantially more civilian casualties than Russian campaign, even when accounting for numbers and sizes of warheads.

v/r pete