March 18th, 2025 

Politics - Trump and Putin talk 

Ground Ops - Kursk Salient collapses to two small pockets

- Fighting elsewhere but no significant changes, hard fighting in Toretsk

Weather

Warm weather during the day will cause fields to continue to thaw, keeping trucks on roads. Cloud cover will also complicate targeting for both sides. Cold weather at night will simply contribute to the miserable conditions in the trenches and bunkers.

Kharkiv

32 and cloudy, windchill 23, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly rest of the week, except sunny on Wednesday morning. Daily lows near freezing, and daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

35 and cloudy, windchill 25, wind gusting to 30. Partly cloudy to cloudy rest of the week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s to 50s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

35 and cloudy, windchill 26, gusting over 35. Partly cloudy to cloudy rest of the week, near freezing tonight and tomorrow morning, then daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump and President Putin spoke today on the phone about the possibility of a ceasefire. Subjects discussed reportedly include the disposition of Crimea, as well as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Trump commented prior to the phone-call:

“We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.”

President Zelenskyy replaced LTGEN Barhylevych, Chief of the General Staff, with MGEN Hnatov. Hnatov was the Khortytsia Group of Forces Commander and Joint Forces Commander (the operational commander responsible for essentially the entire eastern front). Barhylevych becomes the MOD Inspector General. Hnatov was replaced by MGEN Drapatyi, formerly Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Ukrainian holdings inside Russia have been reduced to two small pockets, one is just south of the R-200 roadway, between the border and the small Russian town of Gogolevka, perhaps 3 to 4 square miles in size. The second is further south, between the small Russian town of Guevo and the border to the west, perhaps 8 square miles in size. There are also smaller pockets of Ukrainian troops along the border, strung out between these two pockets. Russian forces continue to very slowly expand their footprint around the Ukrainian town of Basivka, about 3 miles inside Ukraine. 

NORTH OF KHARKIV

There were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

Fighting was reported along most of the line of contact, and there were some claims of small Russian gains but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Further south, fighting was reported west of Terny (west of the Zherebets, but there were no changes in the front lines.

BAKHMUT

Fighting was reported east of Siversk and in Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed changes in the from line.

Further south, street-to-street, building-to-building (which is, again, “ruin-to-ruin”) fighting is reported in western Toretsk as well as in Leondivka. Fighting is reportedly very close, literally house to house.

DONETSK

Russian forces continued attacks in multiple towns east, south and south-west of Pokrovsk, with Russian tacair strikes reported across much of the front lines around Pokrovsk. Note that the Russian use of tacair, and the FAB 500 (1100 lbs glide bomb) and FAB 1500 (3300 lbs glide bomb) have frequently been used to break hard-points in Ukrainian defenses, as they strike with considerably higher Pk than artillery or battle field rockets.

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines in the general Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces were active west of Kostyantynopil and Russian tacair struck targets in Roslyn, as Russian forces appeared to make small gains pushing westward towards that town. 

Further south, Russian forces in the general area north-west of Velyka Novosilke (VN) have pushed into Vilne Pole (about 8 miles north-west of VN) and Pryvilne, just to the south-west, and the Russian front line in the area now runs from just south of Vesele, a town on the Mokri Yaly River about 6 miles north of VN, to Marfopil, just south of Huluaipole, and then westward.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces remain active just east of the big bend in the Dnepr, with engagements reported near Stepove, Lobkove, Mali Shcherbaky, and Zherebyanky, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Air Operations

During the night of March 17-18 Russian forces struck a refinery in Merefa, near  Kharkiv, with 20 x Shahed drones; the AES Group oil refinery has been destroyed.

Russian forces launched 174 x Shahed drones on the night of the 16th into Ukrainian air space; the UAF claimed it shot down 90 drones and 70 drones were “lost,” defeated by EW. Power grid and associated infrastructure reported damage in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Mar17 Mar18

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 71.25 71.27

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 67.83 67.68

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 4.04 4.08

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.69 5.70

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 83.70 81.62

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.58 41.58

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49 65.49

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 72.75 72.77

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 67.50 68.12

Ruble rate strongest since early June 2023

Thoughts 

The big deal today is, obviously, the phone call between Trump and Putin. As I write this, that conversation is taking place. I will wait until tomorrow to see what is released, but I would say there is a 50-50 chance of some sort of ceasefire…

v/r pete