March 20th, 2025 Vernal Equinox

Politics - Meetings scheduled in Riyadh, SA starting Monday

- Neither side has drawn up a list of energy facilities for partial ceasefire

- Trump Mentions Nuclear Power Plants 

Combat Ops - Ukrainian strike on Engels Airfield

- Marginal Russian gains, Chasiv Yar close to falling

Weather

Kharkiv

50 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly rest for the next week. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds light, below 5kts.

Melitopol

49 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy all next week. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

51 and mostly sunny. Mostly sunny on Friday, mostly cloudy for the following 7 days, rain showers starting Monday, continue all week. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts through Saturday morning, then 10-15kts all next week.

Politics and Diplomacy

Negotiations continue on the specifics of the partial ceasefire.

Neither the Russians nor Ukrainians have provided lists of energy infrastructure to be included under the 30 day ceasefire, and of course, neither has yet signed the ceasefire agreement. Both have however accused the other side of violating the ceasefire agreement - which doesn’t yet exist.

President Trump offered a suggestion that US operators could run the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station (and provide power to both Ukraine and Russian occupied Ukraine). 

President Zelenskyy commented:

"The partial ceasefire includes energy systems as well as other civilian infrastructure… this is what we discussed with Trump..."All nuclear power plants belong to the Ukrainian people. If the Americans want to take it from the Russians and modernize it, this can be discussed, but there is no talk of transferring ownership at all.”

The US and Ukrainian teams will meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Monday, the 24th, and the US team will then meet with Russian team, later in the day and on the 25th.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces continue to attack the small pockets of Ukrainian troops that remain inside Russia at the base of the former Kursk salient.

Russia’s MOD reported that on the 17th and 18th a Ukrainian force pushed across the border near Belgorod, but Russian forces responded and pushed them back. Imagery confirmed that, as of this morning, Ukrainian forces held some terrain - the woods just south and south-west of the town of Demidovka, a small town about 1 mile inside Russia, about 55 miles north-west of Belgorod. The Ukrainian position appeared to be only several hundred meters wide and perhaps several kilometer long, just across the border into Russia.

Presumably this is to force the Russians just north of this position, the Russians involved in clearing out the Kursk salient, to redirect, thereby allowing the remaining Ukrainian elements to withdraw across the border.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting reported in and around Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact, but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

BAKHMUT

North-east of Bakhmut Russian forces picked up ground in woods west of Bilohorivka, on the bluffs that form the southern bank of the Donets River. If accurate, this would give the Russians a commanding position in their effort to take Bilohorivka, which has been a brutal fight for the last year.

Hard fighting continues in Chasiv Yar; Russian forces have made gains in the past several days and Ukrainian forces have been forced to withdraw and now hold a rectangle of land on the west edge of town center, roughly 1,000 x 2,500 feet in size. This area included a school, a hospital and several blocks of apartment buildings. Presumably all these buildings are now involved int eh street-to-street, building-to-building fight.

Further south, in and around Toretsk, Russian forces made gains on both the north side of Toretsk and in the south-west corner of the town. Fighting in Toretsk has, as in other large towns, devolved in the slow reduction of the town to rubble. There is a back and forth flow as Ukrainian forces counter and regain small pieces of terrain for brief periods fo time, but there is a certain inevitability once the Russians commit to reducing the town to rubble. Toretsk is well on its way to being rubble.

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues around he Pokrovsk salient, and both sides appear to have made small gains in the last several days, with Ukrainian forces pushing into northern Lysivka (just south-east of Pokrovsk) and Russian forces then pushing back into the same town. Russian forces also pushed back into Pishchane and Shevchenko (both just south-west of Pokrovsk). Russian attacks were reported in 17 towns in the general area east, south or south-west of Pokrovsk. 

Overall, the Russian effort seems to be able to sustain this slow grind, which appears to prioritize engaging Ukrainian forces and inflicting casualties and only taking land when it is essential unoccupied. The result is the Russian army’s very slow progress on the ground. 

Just south of the Pokrovsk Salient Russian forces continue to try to push west from the vicinity of Andrivka, as Ukrainian forces continue to counter and a series of hard, small unit engagements have taken place in an arc from Roslyn to Kostiantynopil to Andriivka to Oleksiivka, but gains and losses can’t be confirmed, and probably don't mean much on any given day, as fighting see-saws back and forth inside the confines of these small towns.

Further south, Russian forces continue to press to the north-west and appear to have made marginal gains (several hundred meters) in the vicinity of Novopil, Pryvilne and Vilne Pole. The challenge for any attacking force I that they are moving across large, well manicured pieces of farmland - with fields at least 300 yards across east to west, and some twice that, and some filed flat and open for more than a mile, and all muddy. The result is that advancing is a very slow and difficult effort.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian reporting claims more Russian advances near Stepove and Lobkove amid multiple Russian probes in the rare just east of the eastern-most bend in the Dnepr River; Ukrainian reporting suggests that Russian forces did make some gains into the south-east quadrant of Stepove and the south side of Mali Shcherbaky, but this has not been confirmed.

Air Operations

Ukrainian drones struck Engels Air Field (just east of Saratov, about 400 miles south-east of Moscow) home base of the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Regiment (Tu-160s) and the 184th Heavy Bomber Regiment (Tu-195s).

It was not reported how many drones Ukrainian forces launched into Russian air space, or what other targets were struck.

Reportedly the attack caused a fire, but did not damage any aircraft. Ukrainian forces claimed that Russian ammunition facilities were struck and that a number of Kh-101 missiles were destroyed. 

Russian forces attacked Ukraine last night, launching 171 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 75 drones and 63 other dozens were lost (defeated by EW), 33 drones not accounted for.

Targets were struck in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kropyvnytskyi, Kyiv, and Sumy oblasts.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Mar19 Mar20

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 70.51 71.90

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 66.87 68.22

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 4.15 4.04

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.65 5.55

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 83.50 84.93

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.56 41.54

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49 65.49

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 72.01 73.40

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 67.04 67.04

Thoughts 

President Trump proposed that the US take over the nuclear power plants so that they would not be a viable target for the Russians. President Zelenskyy came back that the US could repair and modernize them, but that ownership would remain with Ukraine. 

I think the two are talking past each other. 

It seems to me that Trump is simply trying to get the Ukrainian government to agree to something, anything which would result in the US having a tangible interest in Ukraine, which would solve the problem of a security guarantee, as the US would be defending its own interests, interests that would outlast any administration, but somehow this isn’t resonating with the Ukrainian government. 

Meanwhile, the Russian grind continues; Chasiv Yar is mostly taken, as is Toretsk, and something is afoot at the west end the line, between Orikhiv and the Dnepr River.

The Ukrainian General Staff continues to insist that the forces in the Kursk salient, or what is left of it, are not surrounded. They aren’t, but they are effectively trapped and having very little luck breaking contact and withdrawing.

v/r pete