March 13th, 2025

Politics and Diplomacy  - Nearing a ceasefire??? Putin responds.

Ground Operations - Mopping up in Kursk

Politics and Diplomacy 

President Putin responded to the news of Ukrainian acceptance of a ceasefire first through his foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov that there could be no Russian acceptance of a ceasefire as Ukraine would simply use it as a “breather” and stated that Russia wanted real peace talks that addressed Russia’s annexation of the 4 Ukrainian oblasts as well as Crimea, in addition to questions of future Ukrainian membership in NATO, which Russia strongly opposes.

In a conversation with one of my smart correspondents immediately after the above, it was noted that Trump would need to bring to bear both adequate “carrots” and adequate “sticks” to get Putin to agree; after all, the Russian army was winning on the battlefield.

Later, the Kremlin released a statement from Putin that seemed to suggest that the real issue is that Putin wants to speak to Trump and work out a deal: "We agree with the proposals for the ceasefire, but our position is based on the assumption that the ceasefire would lead to a long-term peace, something that would remove the initial reason for the crisis.”

Putin then added: "The idea is sound, but there are some matters to discuss. We'll discuss this with American counterparts and I’ll perhaps call Trump."

Shortly after that, it was released that Trump had ended the exemption emplaced by the Biden administration, that allowed otherwise sanctioned Russian banks to process payments from various European nations to purchase Russian oil and gas. This would effectively end any European purchase of Russian oil and natural gas.

And then Putin became somewhat more accepting of the idea of a ceasefire.

Ground Operations

Suggested yesterday, but now confirmed, Russian forces have, in fact, taken Sudzha and pushed through that town. In the now retaken terrain Russian forces are clearing out pockets of Ukrainian troops, as they press further west. There are only several small towns remaining between the Russian frontline and the border; given the focus of fighting using towns and villages vice open field fighting, the Ukrainian  forces will almost certainly attempt to withdraw at this point. The total Ukrainian controlled area has now been reduced to perhaps 40 square miles (from about 55 yesterday).

Immediately west of Sudzha is the town of Goncharovka, and in this town the major road (R-200) splits out from the town and runs south-west to the border through open fields. There is mixed reporting on this point, but my inference is that, in fact, Russian forces have reached the center of Goncharovka and thus control that road all the way to the border and possibly beyond. Ukrainian forces are trying to hold a line that runs north-south through the west side of Goncharovka.

The terrain from Sudzha - Goncharovka area westward or to the south-west is mostly a series of large, open, fields and several small patches of forest, The few small towns (Rubanshchina, Gorgolevka, Melovoi) have already been well worked over with artillery fire and would probably offer little in the way of defensive positions. Further, these towns, which do not have paved roads that run to the border, would be easily bypassed by a Russian army and Ukrainian forces remaining in those towns would find themselves surrounded and isolated. There are reports of some Ukrainian troops abandoning vehicles and heading west on foot, presented as  rout by Russian press, but this probably represents vehicles caught in mud with no access to a hard-surfaced road; troops then being forced to move by foot.

All of which translates into a situation in which it is likely that the Ukrainian commanders will be attempting to withdraw and there is no real possibility of holding ground, simply fighting a delaying action and then trying to withdraw in good order.

That said, various sources appear to confirm that Gen Syrskyi relieved the Ukrainian commander of the Kursk salient, BGEN Krasilnikov, some time in the last several days.

Elsewhere, heavy fighting continues along much of the front line, and Ukrainian forces have made some gains inside Toretsk over the last several days; Ukrainian sources say that the intensity of the combat operations has increased in the Toretsk area during that period.

South-west of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces continue to attack into recent Russian gains and there has been a series of “see-saw” engagements immediately south and southwest of Pokrovsk over the past several weeks, with both sides training small patches of terrain back and forth. Further south Russian forces continue to slowly grind west, but have not yet pushed past the last east-west line of defensive positions that begins a few miles north-west of Velyka Novosilke.

It is also worth noting that the two countries continue to exchange drone and missile strikes. While the Ukrainian strikes continue to target various Russian faculties, especially oil facilities (storage tanks was well as refineries), the events have shown that refineries are fairly resilient and, while strikes can cause them to shout down for several days, the bulk of production resumes within fairly short periods of time. On the other hand, the Russian ballistic missile strikes are much fewer in number but the effects are more long-term, and Ukrainian energy facilities struck by the Iskander ballistics missiles suffer very heavy damage and are not readily repaired.

Thoughts

I suppose the real key to any ceasefire and follow-on peace agreement will be the relationship between Putin and Trump. Putin will not want to meet with anyone other than Trump until the deal is made, nor will he agree to points from the other parties. He wants a deal with Trump, and as reflected by the turn-around today after Trump pulled the sanctions leash on gas and oil sales to Europe, Putin is well aware of his country’s need to maintain oil and gas sales.

Nor will the potential impact be lost on Europe, even as they come out of winter; Europe recognizes that without Russian natural gas their demand for US LNG will only grow.

As for the situation on the ground, I am reading between the lines on the reporting but it appears right now that - weirdly - the Russian reports from the Kursk region are actually pretty much honest. Given the amount of propaganda that has appeared at times from both Moscow and Kyiv (and other capitals…) over the last 3 years, that has a very strange feel to it. But the long and short is that right now it appears that the Russians really are mopping up the Kursk salient and that the Ukrainian units are trying to withdraw without getting smashed or captured.

Elsewhere, the slow smash and grind of attrition warfare continues. But the condition of the Ukrainian units that have managed to withdraw from the Kursk salient is probably very poor; Russian commanders will be able to shift some forces from Kursk to other areas, Ukrainian commanders will have some difficulty reinforcing against those movements, assuming no ceasefire comes into effect in the near term.

v/r pete