March 19th, 2025 

Politics - Trump and Putin talk 18th and 19th - Partial agreement???

- Ukrainian Government to draw up list of facilities

Weather

Kharkiv

40 and cloudy. Partly to mostly rest of the week. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds light, below 5kts.

Melitopol

42 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy rest of the week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s to 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

43 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy rest of the week, daily lows near freezing, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump and President Putin talked for 90 minutes yesterday, and spoke again for an hour this morning. Yesterday, Putin agreed to suspend attacks on Ukrainian energy related infrastructure for 30 days, as well as maritime infrastructure targets (port facilities for the shipment of grain) and this morning President Trump asked President Zelenskyy to draw up a list of facilities that would be taken of the Russian target list in exchange for Ukraine also not targeting Russian energy related targets.

Trump talked to Zelenskyy after the call yesterday, and again this morning.

In addition, Putin and Trump agreed to immediately begin talks in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a full ceasefire and a negotiated peace.

At the same time, Putin reiterated his call for an end to the shipment of weapons to Ukraine.

Per the White House, both agreed:

The conflict needs to end:

“The blood and treasure that both Ukraine and Russia have been spending in this war would be better spent on the needs of their people.”

US and Russia will expand their bilateral relationship.

Technical negotiations will begin immediately (in Riyadh)

These talks will start with a maritime peace on the Black Sea, a full ceasefire, and then a permanent peace. 

Both discussed cooperating in the Mid East, and agreed that “Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.”

Per the Kremlin, both agreed:

The conflict needs to end. Putin thanked Trump for his effort to end the war.

To a 30 day ceasefire on energy infrastructure.

Discussions will begin immediately on a maritime peace on the Black Sea

Putin raised the issue of the need for a comprehensive peace agreement, not just a ceasefire. He also was concerned about rearming of Ukraine and called for an end to foreign military and intelligence aid to Ukraine.

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Special Envoy, believes that a “full ceasefire” will occur within “a couple of weeks,” commenting that Trump and Putin had "agreed on a pathway to some ceasefire conditions today… a path to a full ceasefire that will be negotiated over the coming days.”

”I actually think in a couple of weeks we're going to get to it. So, lots of good things. Now it's for the technical teams to dot the i’s and cross the t’s and everybody is committed to that process." 

Ukraine and Russia exchanged 175 POWs each (mediated by the UAE), and Russia handed over an additional 22 seriously wounded Ukrainian POWs.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Fighting continues along the Russian - Ukrainian border and Russian forces continue to grind forward through Basivka, the small Ukrainian town 3 miles inside Ukraine, just south-west of what remains of the salient. Reporting from the salient itself is non-specific, only that there have been repeated Russian probes. It is likely that Russian forces are probing forward to find pockets of Ukrainian troops for follow-on attacks by artillery.

About 12 - 15 miles south of the salient, about a mile inside Ukraine, Russian tacair conducted multiple strikes this morning with FAB 500 glide bombs; Russian bloggers report that a Ukrainian force was headed towards the Russian border; presumably this would be an attempt to draw Russian forces away from what is left of the Kursk Salient in order to give Ukrainian troops an opportunity to withdraw.

The Ukrainian General Staff continues to assert that the Ukrainian forces inside Russia are holding there ground and that everything is okay, and that the Russian have gained no ground inside Sumy oblast: "Reports circulating on social media about the advance of Russian troops deep into the territory of Sumy Oblast are false."

NORTH OF KHARKIV 

Fighting continues but there were no changes to the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces continue to move additional assets across the Oskil River, north of Dvorichna, while they continue to probe west and south near Zapadne. But here was no change in the front line in this area.

Further south, Russian forces north-east and east of Borova appear to have made some gains about 6 miles north-east of Borova (due south of Lozova), based on Ukrainian General Staff maps, but based on the same maps appear to have lost some ground to the Ukrainians just west of Lozova. Just west of Lozova there is a seasonal brook and reservoir which must make movement in this area very difficult. I would think that once they have pulled back out of this area the Russians will simply avoid it until the ground dries out.

Further south, Russian forces west of Terny (west of the Zherebets River) have made some small gains pushing further to the south-west in the direction of Lyman, leaving Russian units about 5 miles west of the Zherebets River and 6 and 7 miles north-east of Lyman.

BAKHMUT

Russian forces were again active east of Siversk but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Russian forces in Chasiv Yar continue to grind forward inside Chasiv war, and now appear to control all of Chasiv Yar, except a small portion of the western center of the town. However, there have been no videos released yet of Russian flags over the center of the town and I suspect there is a good deal of “clearing” that is still taking place; and they still need to take the abutting town of Shevchenko.

Further south in Toretsk, video confirms Russian gains on the north side of town; elsewhere the line remains unchanged.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces had probable gains west and south-west of Pokrovsk; in particular, Russian forces west of Pokrovsk have pushed back, and again moved north of the T0406 roadway just east of Udachne and immediately south of Kotlyne. Elsewhere, fighting was reported in the vicinity of 19 different towns, along essentially the entire perimeter of the salient. 

Further south, Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in close fighting inside Kostyantynopil, with Ukrainian forces counter-attacking on Monday, and they now appear to have forced their way back into the center of the town even as Russian forces to their immediate north and south advanced further west, creating a thin salient in the middle of the town.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces continue to probe into Ukrainian positions near Vesele, Pryvilne and Vilne Pole, north-west of Velyka Novosilke, and there are claims of some gains on the ground but they are unconfirmed.

Russian forces also continue to push northward at the western end of the line, attacking towards Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky, but there no confirmed gains.

Air Operations

Last night Russian forces launched more than 150 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space, as well s 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 4 x S-300 miles. The UAF claimed it shot down 72 drones. There has been no report yet of the damage, except that a hospital was struct in Kyiv, as well as the power grid for the railroads in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, and a general blackout was reported in parts of Zaporizhzhia oblast.

Ukrainian forces launched drones into Russia that struck military targets in Crimea as well as energy targets in Kuban, just eats of the Sea of Azov. Russian air defense forces claimed they shot down 142 Ukrainian drones last night.

Russian forces launched 137 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace during the night of 17-18 March. The UAF claimed it shot down 63 drones and 64 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Strike damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Mar18 Mar19

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 71.27 70.51

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 67.68 66.87

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 4.08 4.15

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.70 5.65

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 81.62 83.50

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.58 41.56

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49 65.49

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 72.77 72.01

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 68.12 67.04

Thoughts 

As expected, the start of the negotiations was followed almost immediately by more violence, as Russia launched 150 Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. Russia would respond that Ukraine launched nearly the same number of drones into Russian air space at roughly the same time.

It might be pointed out by a Philadelphia lawyer that there was no list yet provided to Moscow of the energy or port infrastructure facilities that Kyiv thought should be exempt from attack (Trump asked Zelenskyy for such a list either last night or first thing this morning).

While it is horrible, and a virtual certainty, that there will be deaths - military and civilian - in the next few days and weeks and that those deaths will affect the outcome of the negotiations not one wit, the truth is that that happens, sadly, in every war. (Look up the history of the US Army’s 81st Division on the last day of World War I).

As George Friedman noted this morning, the politics of it is such that the war will now come to an end. It may take weeks, it may take months, but it will happen. As he called it, it is now an “engineering process.” That won’t ease the pain of anyone who dies in the last weeks or months of the war, but the fact is that the process has begun. 

What is of note is that Witkoff seems so sure this is going to be in a fast track. Certainly, Trump wants it to happen quickly and he is known for his high-speed decision-making. This promises to be an interesting negotiation. But it may happen very quickly.

v/r pete