March 14th, 2025

Politics and Diplomacy  - Trump and Putin talk; “good and productive”

Ground Operations - Kursk salient collapses

- Elsewhere the grind continues, Russia holds initiative 

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump announced that he held a conversation with President Putin on Thursday. Trump characterized the conversation is “good and productive,” and posted on “Truth Social:”

We had very good and productive discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia yesterday, and there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end - BUT, AT THIS VERY MOMENT, THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY, AND IN A VERY BAD AND VULNERABLE POSITION. I have strongly requested to President Putin that their lives be spared. This would be a horrible massacre, one not seen since World War II. God bless them all.

As noted yesterday, the Kremlin first rejected the ceasefire agreement, then Putin said he accepted it in principal but there were issues he needed other than discuss with Trump, and then word came from the Kremlin - after Trump ordered new sanctions that will end all sales of Russian oil and gas to Europe - that Russian leadership was studying the idea.

Putin’s main public objection is that the ceasefire “should lead to an agreement that "eliminates the causes of the war.” The Russian position, of course, centers on the expansion of NATO and the “militarization” of Ukraine; he wants both to end. Of course, an armed Ukraine as a member of NATO is a much different issue than an armed Ukraine not a member of NATO.

Putin also wants formal acceptance of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the four oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia). 

Of the four oblasts, Russia has control of 99% of Luhansk, 70% of Luhansk, 74% of Zaporizhzhia, and 76% of Kherson. Russia also holds about 5% of Kharkiv Oblast.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

The Kursk salient has essentially ceased to exist. 

Ukrainian blogs are showing the town of Goncharovka (the town immediately west of Sudzha) in Russian hands, eliminating the last town on the R-400 roadway that was held by the Ukrainians. This means an unimpeded access to the border for Russian forces. Russian forces already occupy the small Ukrainian town of Basivka, about 3 miles inside Ukraine, just a bit over a mile north-west of the roadway (called H-70 inside Ukraine). Whether Russian forces will remain inside Ukraine or withdraw remains to be seen, but the position in and around Basivka is readily supported with the same road that supported the Ukrainian salient, so the Russians may just sit and hold that area as the negotiations develop.

Ukrainian forces can still be found in pockets in a zone about 10 miles long and 1 - 3 miles wide along the border, but those troops are trying to withdraw across the border on foot. Whether they can make the border before being corned or struck with artillery or drones remains to be seen; President Trump’s statement suggests that he knows there are some cornered Ukrainian elements. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi commented that he ordered Ukrainian forces to withdraw to save Ukrainian lives, but the salient had already begun to collapse.

It is of note that there are relatively few Russian videos of Russian drones or artillery striking Ukrainian forces, suggesting that many of them were able to withdraw, but we shall see.

There are also anecdotal reports of large amounts of Ukrainian gear, to include an intact M-1 tank, being left inside Russia.

As noted yesterday and Wednesday, Ukrainian forces were forced off the roads and onto the fields and then quickly had to abandon vehicles as they sank into the mud (temperatures in the region have been in the 40s at night, 50s during the day, and occasionally, as today) reaching briefly into the 60s, rain expected tomorrow).

ALONG THE FRONT LINES

Russian and Ukrainian forces remain engaged along virtually the enter front line, with both sides making small gains, but the initiative remains with the Russian forces. While there were marginal gains by both sides in several areas, a few items stand out: a significant increase in Russian artillery fire and suicide drone use in Toretsk, suggesting another push by the Russians to clear pickets of Ukrainian troops; Ukrainian troops south of Pokrovsk have retaken most of the small town of Shevchenko; and unconfirmed but credible reports that Russian forces have taken Pyatykhatky - west of Orikhiv, just east of the big bend in the Dnepr River, and pushed through that town to the vicinity of Mali Shcherbaky.

Thoughts

As expected, President Putin rejected the initial ceasefire proposals and countered with one of his own, similar to the one he offered in March of 2022.. While there is a good deal of OpEd chatter from “insiders” about what Putin will and will not, in fact, accept, my guess is that there are two issues that Putin and the Kremlin want (I add “and the Kremlin” as I don't see anything that suggests a great deal of difference between Putin and anyone else who might succeed him in the near future):

No NATO membership - there is no room for Ukrainian membership in NATO. Nor would there be any acceptance of NATO peacekeepers. I think some sort of observers from countries that are in NATO might eventually be accepted, as long as it was explicit that they were not covered by Article V of the Atlantic Charter (“an attack on one is an attack on all”).

Long range offensive weapons. Putin and other Russians suggest that there must be no arming of Ukraine, but the conversations always seem to evolve (or devolve) into offensive weapons and there perhaps is some room here for splitting a hair.

But in the end, I suspect the key is that Putin wants to talk to Trump, that they will negotiate and work out a solution - there is an ego factor in here (and a “rational decision-making” factor) in which Putin not only has to see himself as being equal to Trump, but, from Putin’s perspective, the Russian people have to see him as being equal to Trump if he is to remain as the "strong man." So, a proposal can come forward, but there has to be negotiation not simply between the US teams and the Russian team, but between Putin and Trump. And, I would guess there will be some deliberate disagreement and pushback and he, Putin, will want changes to the current agreement because it will show that he directly affected the outcome. I would not be surprised if he deliberately adds some drama - dragging out the negotiations over some key point - to show his strength.

The conversation yesterday fits in that sense, it scratches the itch, and at the same time is the very real issue that the two real power players - the US and Russia - are now talking. While some pooh-pooh this and say Putin is holding to maximal positions, looked at from the perspective of a hot war that is now in its 37th month, this negotiation - between Trump and Putin - is a substantial step forward.

It would be an interesting negotiation step if Putin were to order his forces in and around Kursk to halt for perhaps 48 hours to let Ukrainian forces complete their withdrawal, and then ask Trump to acknowledge it.

At the same time, the Russian MOD is releasing stories of Ukrainian atrocities in the Kursk region, as one would expect, with truth and propaganda carefully spun together.

As for the war itself, Ukrainian forces continue to push back into seized Russian terrain, but these are short-term tactical gains that don’t really affect the operational environment. Much like the Western Front in World War I, these are expensive engagements for what little they recover. 

There may be some small advantage in some pieces of terrain as both sides seek to negotiate the ceasefire line. But I hope that someone, somewhere on the US team has gone over the terrain and identified places that can be used to support defensive positions and that folks aren’t simply drawing lines on a 1:10,000,000 map.

v/r pete