March 24th, 2025

Politics - Negotiations ongoing in Riyadh

- Talks said to be productive 

Combat Ops - 4 days of heavy drone attacks

- Remains of Kursk salient squeezed

Weather

Kharkiv

49 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain in Tuesday, then mostly cloudy for the week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy all next week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 15+kts on Tuesday then variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

43, cloudy and windy, gusting over 40. Rain today, and tomorrow, cloudy rest of the week. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 15-20kts through Tuesday morning, then 5-10kts rest of the week.

Politics and Diplomacy

Two days of talks; later comments said that the talks were “productive.”

On Sunday, US and Ukrainian representatives met in Riyadh and discussed the details of a temporary maritime and infrastructure ceasefire. Involved in this discussion include Ukrainian MinDef Umerov and from President Zelenskyy’s staff Pavlo Palisa and Ihor Zhovka, Deputy Energy Minister Kolisnyk, and State Secretary Karasevich. The US team included Andrew Peek from the National Security Council, and SecState Policy lead Michael Anton. The US and Ukrainian teams were to meet again after the US and Russian teams had talked.

Today, the US team met with the Russian delegation, to include Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house) Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Sergey Beseda, advisor to the FSB director. 

There was mention of a possible meeting on Tuesday but that has yet to be confirmed.

Subjects discussed in this round so far are know to include:

- Maritime ceasefire and resumption of the Black Sea grain deal

- Pause in attacks on energy related infrastructure 

- 30 day ceasefire

- Return of POWS and return of Children

Ground Ops

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces pushed through to the Russia - Ukraine border in Oleshnya, about 1.5 miles south of the H07 / R200 roadway. The line of advance was probably along one bank of the Oleshnya River, brings the last forested border area under Russian control, and effectively cuts in two one of the two larger concentrations of Ukrainian troops inside Russia. 

Russian forces have also expanded their positions around Basivka.

Further south, Ukrainian forces continue to hold their lodgment along the border north-west of Belgorod, and appear to have expanded their footprint in the town of Demidovka. Demidovka is small town (less than 100 houses) just inside the Russian border, and was the site of a forward HQ (destroyed by a HIMARS strike). There is a small river just north of the town and a small wood, and more small brooks immediately south of the town. During the spring thaw (now), with each of these brooks and rivers flowing, the town would be a sound defensive position given the tactics both sides are using. 

Fighting is also reported in the town of Prilese, about 4 miles south of Demidovka.

NORTH OF KHARKIV 

Fighting continued near Vovchansk all weekend, but there were no changes in the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued along the entire line of contact. Due east of Borova Ukrainian forces swung south of Russian forces in the town of Kopanky (about 10 miles east of Borova) and struck into the town of Nadiya (3 miles east of Kopanky), and appear to have taken the town. It’s not clear how many (if any) Russian troops were in Nadiya, nor how big is the Ukrainian force. But for now a "yin - yang" situation has developed and the question will be who can reinforce earliest and strike into the other’s flank.

BAKHMUT

The Russians aren’t claiming it yet, but it appears that Russian forces are in the process of pushing from Horkoho street to Dniprovska street - closing up the west-center of Chasiv Yar, the last toe-hold Ukrainian forces had on Chasiv Yar itself. Russian forces are pressing west into Shevechenko, which abuts central Chasiv Yar. If accurate, what is likely to follow is a week or more of efforts to clear out the last pockets of Ukrainian troops.

Further south in Toretsk, Russian forces have pushed into the very north-west corner of Toretsk, an area of perhaps 1,000 x 1,00 feet, with perhaps 35 houses in it.  At the same time, a Ukrainian element continues to hold a number of blocks in the center of the city; again size of the force is unknown. 

DONETSK CITY AREA

Fighting continues along most of the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient. Imagery has confirmed that Russian forces control Vodyane Druhe (about 12 miles east of Pokrovsk, just east of the big turn to the north in the T0504 roadway). Russian control of Shevchenko was also confirmed.

Fighting was reported in the vicinity of  Bohdanivka, Kotlyarivka, Kotlyne, Lysivka, Novoandriivka,  Novoukrainka,  Pishchane,  Solone, Sribne, Sukhyi Yar, Udachne, Uepsnivka, and Yelyzavetivka.

Immediately south of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces continue to attack westward and fighting continues near Rozyyv and inside Kostyantynopil.

There was no change in the front lines across southern Ukraine.

Air Operations

Drone and missile strikes continued all weekend.

On the night of the 23rd Russian forces launched 99 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 57 drones and 36 were lost (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in the Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

On the night of the 22nd Russian forces launched 147 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 97 drones and 25 were lost (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts.

On the night of the 21st Russian forces launched 179 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 100 drones and 63 were lost (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

On the night of the 20th Russian forces launched 214 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 114 drones and 81 were lost (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Kyiv oblasts.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Mar21 Mar24

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 71.78 72.39

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 67.95 68.52

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 4.03 3.95

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.59 5.51

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 84.58 84.15

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.57 41.67

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49 65.49

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 73.28 73.89

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 69.35 69.13

Thoughts 

On the ground Ukrainian forces appear to have committed some of their reserves in 6 different points along the front line (Kursk Salient, near Belgorod, vicinity of Kupyansk, Toretsk, two points near Pokrovsk on the Pokrovsk salient) and this has stopped the Russian advance in these areas. This has been done in coordination with the use of large number of FPV (“suicide”) drones to slow Russian logistics support to forces opposite the committed reserves. 

What is not clear is how long the Ukrainian forces can sustain this effort, as it really constitutes a continuation of the war of attrition, in which the Russians have a clear advantage.

As for the talks, Special Envoy Witkoff continues to sound very positive about the outcome, and he appears confident that there will be some sort of ceasefire on the Black Sea and that this will expand, step by step, into a full, temporary ceasefire (for 30 days) and that once a temporary ceasefire agreement is reached, it can be sustained and evolve into a permanent ceasefire.

v/r pete