August 22nd, 2025
Politics - Putin meets with India Foreign Minister
Combat Ops - Small gains by both sides
Damage - Kostiantinivka - no natural gas?
Economy - China still buying Russian oil
Weather
Kharkiv
89 and sunny, gusting over 30. Temperature falling; rain tomorrow and again Sunday afternoon, next week party cloudy. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
88 and sunny, gusting over 25. Rain and thunderstorms tomorrow, then clearing a bit, partly cloudy through the middle of next week. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
59 and light rain, gusting to 20. Rain should taper off by midnight; then clearing a bit, partly cloudy until the middle of next week. Daily lows in the low to mid 50s, highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Politics
President Putin and ForMin Lavrov met with Indian ForMin Jaishankar yesterday to discuss Russo-Indian relations, while Russian DepMin for Energy Marshavin met with India’s DepMin for Petroleum Jain a day earlier, as Russia continues to develop means to avoid sanctions. Meanwhile, China signed new oil purchase agreements with Russia (see Economic Reporting below).
Per the Kiel Institute for World Economy, which has tried to keep track of the various aid packages and grants and loans provided to Ukraine, totaling $362 billion to date; here are the major pieces of aid provided over the last 3 and half years (figures given in Euros, I converted to dollars):
Military Aid $174.6 billion
Financial Aid $163 bn
Humanitarian Aid $24.6 bn
US Aid
Military Aid $75.6 billion
Financial Aid $54.5 bn
Humanitarian Aid $4 bn
Other Aid
European Commission $73.9 bn
Germany $24.9 bn
United Kingdom $21.8 bn
Japan $15.9 bn
Total European aid $195.9 bn
(both individually and through the EU)
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Russian forces remain on the attack north of Sumy city but there were no confirmed changes in the line of contact.
Russian forces remain active north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed changes in the line of contact.
Along the Russia - Ukraine border, near the small Russian salient near Milove, Russian reports claimed gains in the woods north and east of the small village of Ambarne, but these have not been confirmed.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting continues on three sides of Kupyanssk, and there are reports of Russian recon teams probing into Kupyansk, but there have been no changes in the line of contact and Ukrainian forces appear to be holding the line at the edge or just outside the town.
Further south, at several spots along the line of contact, Russian reports claim advances but none of them have been confirmed. Russian sources are claiming that Russian forces now have full control of Serednie, along the Nitrius River, but this has not been confirmed either.
There are also unconfirmed reports of further Russian gains in the Serebrianske forest.
BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK
Fighting was noted north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no changes to the front line.
Fighting continues west and south of Chasiv Yar and there are conflicting reports as to the location of Russian units. Imagery confirms that Russian forces are trying to clear and consolidate terrain between Chasiv war and Bila Hora, but they clearly do not have full control of that terrain; Ukrainian elements remain in the area. Reporting also suggests that while Russian forces have control of parts of Predtechyne, the bulk of the town is either in Ukrainian control or a gray zone. Russian sources claim full control of Oleksandro Shultyne, but this has not been confirmed.
At the same time, it does appear that Russian recon elements have probed into Konstiantinivka, but have been pushed out again. Nevertheless, that town is feeling more strain (see the Damage assessment below).
In the Pokrovsk area, and north of Pokrovsk - west of Toretsk, fighting continues and Ukrainian forces continue to try to cut off what remains of the Russian salient. Russian forces continue to move into the area and are trying to build a defensive position from Zapovidne to Mayak to Shakhove. If the Russians can hold that line it would represent an advance of several miles in 2 weeks - which for the Russian way of war is substantial and would underline the manpower problem in the Ukrainian army.
At the same time Russian sources claim that Russian elements yesterday pushed north from Kucheriv Yar, which perhaps suggests more gaps in the Ukrainian defensive line. There are also claims of Russian probes in Zolotyi Koldyaz and elsewhere, again suggesting that the Russians are trying to find gaps in an undermanned line and exploit them.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
South of the Vovcha, about 2 miles south-east of Zelenyi Hai, Ukrainian forces have pushed into and taken control of most of the small village of Tolstoi (about 75 houses, also known as Tovste).
Further south of the Vovcha River, in the general area west of Vilne Pole, Russian sources claim Russian gains in the last 24 hours and that Russian forces have established full control of Oleksandrohrad, about 3 miles north of Maliivka, and almost a mile west of the last confirmed demarcation of the front line. As noted before, there are a series of defensive positions in this area, but not much beyond them. If the Russians have taken Oleksandrohrad they are north of the last major east-west line across southern Ukraine, and that town marks also the last north-south defense line, leaving basically open farm land all the way to the Dnepr.
Elsewhere south of the Vovcha River Russian forces continue to attack westward, but there were no confirmed changes to the line.
Fighting continues across southern Ukraine, from the Orikhiv area westward to the Dnepr River, but there were no confirmed changes to the front liens.
Air Operations
During the night of August 21st-August 22nd Russian forces launched 55 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 46 Shahed drones.
Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv Sumy oblasts.
RuAF tacair struck 5 Ukrainian towns.
Ukraine has begun fielding the FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missile, with a range of 3,000 KM (1800 nm), with a 2,300lb warhead. Reportedly, the production rate is 1 per day.
During the night of August 20th-August 21st Russian forces launched 4 x Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles, 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 19 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 1 x Zircon, and 574 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed is shot down 1 Kinzhal aero-ballistic missile, 18 Kh-101s, 12 Kalibrs and shot down or defeated by EW, 546 Shahed drones.
Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Rivne, Sumy, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblast.
RuAF tacair struck 8 Ukrainian towns.
This was the 3rd largest strike package of the war, and resulted in 1 killed and 22 wounded.
Ukrainian drone struck Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Oblast, on the 20th.
Strike Damage
The Ukrainian General Staff reports on the Ukrainian drone strikes note that gas prices are rising in Russia. At the same time, Ukrainian newspapers report that Russian drone and artillery strikes on Kostiantinivka have resulted in heavy damage to the natural gas distribution system in that city and restoration will be difficult.
Chairman of Donetskoblgas, Vadym Batiy, commented:
"As a result of enemy shelling in the city of Kostiantynivka, a gas distribution station belonging to LLC Operator of Gas Transportation Systems of Ukraine was damaged. Due to numerous damages, the working pressure in the gas supply system of Kostiantynivka could not be maintained, which led to the cessation of gas distribution to consumers of the city.”
He went on to note that due to a shortage of people, and the overall security situation in the city, “…restoring gas supply in the city of Kostiantynivka is not possible.”
Economic Reporting
Feb22 May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Aug21 Aug22
Brent 94.71 61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 67.08 67.73
WTI 92.10 59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 62.93 63.68
NG 3.97 3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.78 2.77
Wheat 8.52 5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.33 5.29
Ruble 85 82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 80.60 80.83
Hryvnia 28..6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.21 41.36
Urals 91.66 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 63.90 63.10
ESPO 94.52 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 69.04 69.87
Sokol 99.31 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 64.00 64.52
Chinese refineries have signed contracts to purchase 15 additional Russian crude oil shipments through November, after they became available when India backed away after US trade sanctions. The oil was purchased at a $3 per barrel discount.
Currently, China is buying approximately 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude per day (China’s total imports are about 12 million barrels per day).
Thoughts
Behind all the discussions about a settlement of some sort is the question of security guarantees; in essence, some military force in Ukraine, in addition to the Ukrainian army.
Col. Andre Wuestner, head of the German Armed Forces Association (which represents some 200,000 active and retired German soldiers) commented yesterday that the leadership of NATO has to face the fact that this will require deploying “tens of thousands” of troops to Ukraine on a long-term mission. He suggested that they need to face the challenges now even if any ceasefire or agreement may be months away.
It would seem to me that the Col. is understating the problem. As one of my smart correspondents pointed out, the folks in Europe who have seriously looked at this issue recognize that this cannot be done without the US, to include, at a minimum, US command and control, US logistics, US intelligence and early warning, US air defense, and probably some US special elements actually on the ground.
Who else would participate, not just countries, but which particular capabilities, how would they integrate with other units, etc? European nations need to get ready to go, real plans, identify units, etc.
The various armies and air forces and navies have folks who can do this, but the political machinery needs to be greased.
v/r pete
