August 20th, 2026

Politics - Fedorov statement walked back?

Combat Ops - Little change on the ground

- USV destroyed off Romania

- Strikes continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

81 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

83 and clear, gusting to 20. Sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

79 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Following the confirmation of the new MinDef and ForMin, and the statement by former MinDef Fedorov calling for elections, there has been a flurry of statements which appear to be trying to defuse the situation.

Dmytro Koziatnskyi, a former Ukrainian army medic who was allowed to leave the army last year, and was the major organizer of the pro-Fedorov protests across the country during last month, issued a statement, noting that the protests did succeed in forcing the removal of Gen Syrskyi, and led to the appointment of Gen. Drapaty as the new CINC of the army.

As for elections, he noted:

“I view elections during wartime negatively—I can't imagine how to technically enable thousands of soldiers currently on the front lines to vote and run for office. I'm also deeply concerned about the societal divisions during the election process and how that could affect the course of the war. In any case, street protests are definitely not the place for electoral discourse.”

“It is unfortunate that we have still failed to establish a dialogue between the authorities and society. I hope that this issue will be resolved in time because, in my opinion, the lack of communication was the root cause of these protests. As I have said repeatedly, for me these protests were about dialogue and reforms, not individuals. Therefore, I want to wish Mr. Khmara success in his new position and sincerely hope that he will continue the course toward reforms and combating corruption in the defense sector.”

"We are in a full-scale war; elections in Ukraine are impossible. So talking now about elections, calculating some ratings, political campaigning... It looks so ridiculous that I cannot imagine how anyone could even think about this now.”

Serhii Sternenko, an advisor to Fedorov also commented:

"Elections are unacceptable in any form as long as the full-scale aggression continues. This will tear the country apart from within.”

Whether Fedorov agreed with that statement is unknown; there has been no follow-on statement by Fedorov yet.

Ground Operations

Ukrainian forces made small gains south of Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv), in the farmland north of the town of Bilyi Kolodyaz.

It appears that Ukrainian forces moved one tree line north across the farmland south of Karaichne - but that they only moved one tree line suggests the Russian presence is the area is enough to force Ukrainian forces to be slow and deliberate - suggesting that what appears on most maps to be unoccupied no mans land has a Russian forces presence of some sort.

There were also claims of Russian gains south-east of Kupyansk, but there is nothing to back up the claim.

Russian infiltration around Kostiantinivka continues; with imagery confirming that Russian troop hold positions in Osykove, the town on the north-west edge of Kostiantinivka, on the way to Druzhkivka.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Romanian AF F-16s destroyed a maritime drone (USV) this morning as it approached the Neptun Deep gas development platform, located about 80nm east of Constanta. 

The drone was spotted at 0628 local time and two F-16s were scrambled in response. One aircraft destroyed the drone within several hundred meters of the platform (presumably with guns, but the type weapon was not mentioned).

Romanian DefMin Miruta stated that the USV was carrying explosives, and has blamed Russia for the attack.

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ufa, and Ukrainian sources claim that one processing unit was “destroyed.”

The Ukrainian General Staff claims that the strike on August 14th-15th on Progress Space Launch Complex in Samara hit the Soyuz launch vehicle assembly workshop.

Ukrainian strikes on August 12th damaged port facilities in Novorossiysk as well as two Russian navy frigates that were pier side at the time of the attack: Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov - Admiral Grigorovich class frigates (409 ft, 4,000 tons, armament includes 8 x Kalibr cruse missiles (vertical launch tubes)).

Imagery analysis by the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence claims the launch tubes have been damaged, as well as various ship systems.

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Ukrainian forces launched 600 drones and missiles into Russian airspace, later reports claimed total numbers exceeded 1,500 drones. Russian air defense forces at first claimed to have shot down 453 drones and missiles; how many were launched, and how many shot down is not known.

At an oil refinery in Ufa, oil tanks are said to be burning (though there is no independent confirmation of what was and what was not struck).

Local reporting noted at least 1 civilian killed and 3 wounded. 

In the last two days Ukrainian forces claim to have struck 5 bulk carriers in the eastern Black Sea.

Commercial imagery of the Progress Space Rocket Center in Samara shows damage to the facility that was being used to modernize TU-95 bombers.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 19th-August 20th Russian forces launched at least several Iskander ballistic missiles as well as a number of Oniks and Zircon missiles, 36 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 8 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 2 x Banderol loitering munitions, and 168 x strike drones into into Ukrainian airspace.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. A Russian strike drone hit a border crossing on the Ukrainian - Moldovan border, about 30 miles west of Odessa.  A power outage was reported in Sumy oblast.

Civilian casualties include at least 23 killed and 45 wounded, at least of the 13 dead were in Kyiv. Mayor Klitschko said that roughly 4,000 of the 12,000 buildings in the city have now been damaged since the war began. Also of note, the basic city response to any attack costs UAH 500 million ($11 million).

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 7 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast.

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballast missiles and 65 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claims it shot down 56 strike drones and 2 Banderol loitering munitions.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Civilian casualties include at least 3 killed and 54 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast and 5 border towns in Chernihiv Oblast.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence provided a list of current Russian missile stockpile as well as estimates of actual monthly production. Listed below are the number of each type of missile followed by its monthly production numbers:

Iskander Ballistic Missile 130  / 60-65

NKOR KN-23 50 / 

Oniks 600 / 8 (earlier estimate)

S-400 400 / 50

Zircon 120 / 5 (earlier estimate)

Kh-101 101 / 87

Kalibr  450 / 29

Kinzhal 50 / 10-15 (earlier estimate)

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9         Aug7 Aug19 Aug20

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 81.59 93.72

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 85.80 86.66

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12          2.64 2.83 2.75

Wheat     8.52           6.14   5.82           6.06 6.35 6.99 7.03

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 84.56 83.38

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.70 44.65

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 85.60 88.85

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 87.52 88.89

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 87.48 86.88

Thoughts

The statements by  Koziatnskyi and Sternenko seem to be an effort to walk back the position Fedorov staked out just 48 hours ago. But there has been no retraction from Fedorov.

Despite the lack of change on the ground, the grind continues and the anecdotal reports from blogs suggests that the fight continues with unabated violence. There have been multiple reports daily for the past several weeks about Russian use of FAB 500 and FAB 1500 (1100lb and 3300lb) glide bombs, which are causing significant damage to the towns they are dropped into. Kostiantinivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are being struck daily. The “count” for most of this year has been above 200 dropped per day and continues to slowly climb; these three cities each receive a slice of that total, slowly reducing these cities to rubble.

v/r pete