August 12th, 2026

Politics - Ukrainian Agriculture losses

- Two UAVs destroyed off Romania

- Attacks suspended on CPC terminal

Combat Ops - Marginal Russian gains north of Kostiantinivka

- Missile and drone strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

76 and sunny, gusting over 20. Sunny or mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and sunny, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the mid to upper 50s, daily highs around 80. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

69, clear but windy, gusting over 35. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 50s, could dip into the high 40s at dawn, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-westerly, 15-20kts.

Politics

Per the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, no grain has been exported from Ukrainian ports since the beginning of August. The greater Odessa ports (Odessa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi, etc.) account for 90% of Ukraine’s grain and seed oil exports. Normal Ukrainian grain and oils exports totals about 6 million tons per month. Other means - truck and rail and some barge traffic - during normal times amounts to less than a million tons per month but has a maximum capacity of perhaps 2.5 million tons per month on average, meaning roughly a 30 million ton shortfall.

The Minister stated that a 30 million ton difference represents a $20.5 billion loss to Ukrainian farmers.

Romanian Navy divers destroyed two UAVs that were discovered floating near Romania’s offshore natural gas development: Neptun Deep. The drones were spotted by a commercial vessel transporting personnel to the drill rig. The drones were identified as 2 Gerbera model UAVs, the original Russian knock-off of the Shahed drone.

Neptun Deep, located about 90 miles from Constant, in Romania’s EEZ, is a nearly $5 billion development, projected to become Europe’s largest natural gas producer, with an estimated 100 billion cubic meters of recoverable gas.

In late July Vice President Vance asked President Zelenskyy to suspend attacks on tankers using Novorossiysk and the Ukrainian government appears to have agreed to the request.

Specifically, the issue was both the rise in oil prices as well as the risk to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal (CPC), which carries the bulk of Kazakhstan oil to world markets.

Zelenskyy has agreed to not strike CPC facilities and from striking non-Russian, non-sanctioned tankers.

Ground Operations

The grind continues, mixed in with a good deal of claims and counter-claims, most of which are propaganda.

Russian forces in the greater Kostiantinivka area continued infiltrations into the northern end of that city and neighboring towns. Three towns north of Kostiantinivka - Molocharka, Stinky and Chervone - were all mentioned in various reports; Russian sources claim all three are now controlled by Russian forces, but the various reports, taken as a whole, suggest that fighting is taking place in each town.

Nevertheless, that the fighting is taking place in the three towns simultaneously suggests that Russian forces have pushed the “gray zone” further north and west, further squeezing Kostiantinivka and putting them in a more favorable position to press on Druzhkivka.

Further south, south-west of Pokorvsk, Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains north-west of Fillia as they continue to hold Novopavlivka.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian drone and missile strikes continue:

A fire was reported at the port facility and naval piers in Novorossiysk.

Another Wildberries warehouse was hit near Voronezh.

An oil refinery in Orsk was again struck.

Russian Forces

Russian drone strikes have forced Ukraine’s rail service to suspend more rail traffic due to damage to rail cars and killed and wounded personnel, and there are reports of some stores in the Kyiv area running low on food.

Russia is now producing 3,000 Geran 4/5 jet powered drones per month. The Geran 4 has a 450 mile range and a 110lb warhead, the Geran 5 has a range of 600 miles and a 200lb warhead.

Ukrainian intelligence reports that they found an Nvidia AI chip in the remains of the new S-71 cruise missile. The S-71 has a 551lb warhead, a low observable airframe, and was first used in late 2025. The weapon has a 185 miles at 350kts.

UAF spokesman noted that the number of Russian jet-powered strike drones has been climbing. While the UAF had roughly a 90% or better engagement rate against the slower, propeller driven strike drones as of last year and in the first few months of this year, in July, as Russian forces increased the use of jet-powered drones, the initial numbers showed that engagement rate fell to 87% in July; the jet-powered drones fly higher (5,000 - 10,000 feet AGL) and at nearly twice the speed (260kts vice 140-150kts), making engagement with guns - light AAA - more difficult. 

During the night of August 11th-August 12th Russian forces launched several Iskander ballistic missiles, at least 1 x Kh-31 missile, several Kh-35 missiles, and 138 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF no longer reports on numbers of missiles or number of missiles engaged.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (north-east of Kyiv).

During the night of August 10th-August 11th Russian forces launched several Iskander ballistic missiles, several Zircon missiles, and 120 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF did not report on numbers of missiles or number of missiles engaged (see my Thoughts below).

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power and water infrastructure in Odessa were both damaged. Strike results in Kyiv included damage to a children’s hospital; there were no killed or wounded at the hospital. Also hit in the strikes last night was the Zaporizhzhia Steel Works, and all operations have been temporarily suspended. Seven employees were killed and 21 wounded during the strike.

Civilian casualties include at least 8 killed and 30 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 10 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (north-east of Kyiv).

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug11 Aug12

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 87.88 88.49

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 82.23 82.81

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12           2.64  2.76 2.80

Wheat     8.52  6.14    5.82   6.06  6.35   6.33 6.50

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 82.43 83.02

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.78 44.71

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 81.87 84.31

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 84.22 84.45

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 77.91 83.86

Thoughts

A recent statement from President Zelenskyy gave an insight into Russian casualties (different from the normal inflated numbers). Zelenskyy made a statement concerning Ukrainian gains along the south-east front since the beginning of the year, virtually all of Ukrainian gains in the past year, and what amounts to perhaps a quarter of the combat ops during this time period.

During this period Russian forces suffered a total of 9,550 killed and 6,600 seriously wounded, which might translate into roughly 40,000 killed and 25,000 seriously wounded over the entire front line during that period. 

That would translate into 5,500 KIAs and 3,500 severely wounded per month, which is consistent with other sources, particularly Mediazone estimates.

v/r pete